Back when I was, well, less “smart” about the market, a man on TV, an entertainer, a talking head said AIG was undervalued. It was a buy. Yup, the same AIG that required a $182-billion bailout. Oops!

“Oil is the most important thing in this market. Oil going to $50 is going to move the DOW.”

Jim Cramer was wrong about AIG before the crash. Maybe today he is right oil goes to $50, but it is fading as a driver of this market cycle. The Fed’s reticence on interest rates combined with the precipitous fall of oil prices have driven this market this year, but soon enough, investors will bet on what is coming.

– Analysts forecast industrywide sales will rise 5% in April to set a new monthly high and the selling pace will eclipse 17.5-million vehicles, putting the auto industry back on track to beat last year’s sales record. 

Maybe oil goes to $50 because Americans are buying lots of trucks and vans, which increases demand for gasoline, but the overarching market reality is Americans are buying lots of cars because they feel they can. They have jobs.

– The vast U.S. services sector expanded in April as new orders and employment accelerated, bolstering views that economic growth would rebound after almost stalling in the first quarter.

The EU is on the mend, China is still growing, and the US consumer is still feeling good, and as long as the US Services sector continues to expand, the US consumer will keep feeling good.

No, Mr. Cramer, oil is fading as “the most important thing in this market” – economic expansion will be the bet.