By FXEmpire.com
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 19, 2012 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)
The AUD/USD has continued to drift higher after rallying overnight as news of a successful Spanish bond auction alleviated fears of a fresh European debt crisis.
The Australian dollar was trading at 104.01 US cents, up from 103.14 cents on Tuesday afternoon.
National Australia Bank currency strategist Emma Lawson said the currency rallied after Spain announced it had sold 3.18 billion euros ($A4.05 billion) in 12- and 18-month bonds.
The debt auction was a curtain raiser to a crucial auction of 10-year bonds later this week, seen as a key indicator of market confidence in the troubled euro zone nation.
We’ve seen a rebound overnight from the positive news coming out of Europe. There was a little bit of profit-taking at the start of the day but it’s generally just continuing that positive sentiment.
Economic Reports for April 17, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Apr. 17 |
AUD |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
||
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.6% |
-1.2% |
-1.2% |
|
INR |
Indian Interest Rate Decision |
8.00% |
8.30% |
8.50% |
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
3.5% |
3.5% |
3.4% |
|
GBP |
CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.6% |
2.6% |
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
23.4 |
20.0 |
22.3 |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
13.1 |
10.7 |
11.0 |
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.6% |
1.5% |
|
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.747M |
0.710M |
0.715M |
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.654M |
0.705M |
0.694M |
|
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
-0.30% |
-1.00% |
-1.30% |
|
|
EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|||
|
CAD |
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
Economic Events scheduled for April 19, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY
01:30:00 AUD National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence 3
The National Australia Bank Business Confidence is a survey of the current business condition in Australia. It indicates the performance of the overall Australian economy in a short-term view. A positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the AUD, whereas a negative growth is seen as bearish.
14:00:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) 4.63M 4.59M
The Existing Home Sales, released by the National Association of Realtorsprovide an estimated value of housing market conditions. As the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive for the Dollar, while a low reading is negative.
14:00:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey 12.2 12.5
The Philadelphia Fed Survey is a spread index of manufacturing conditions (movements of manufacturing) within the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. This survey, served as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is interrelated with the ISM manufacturing Index (Institute for Supply Management) and the index of industrial production. It is also used as a forecast of The ISM Index. Generally, an above-the-expectations reading is seen as positive for the USD.
23:50:00 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) 0.80% -1.70%
Tertiary Industry Index released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry indicates the domestic service sector in Japan such as information and communication, electricity, gas heat and water, services, transport, wholesale and retail trade, finance and insurance ,and welfare. As the Japanese economy relies upon its exports, this event is expected to generate low volatility for the JPY. Generally, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction
Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029
Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction
Originally posted here
