By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0226 falling slightly as the USD recovers from the huge drop on Friday, after the EU announced its plan to save the economies of the Eurozone and for a banking union.
Traders were initially elated on the fact that the EU Ministers devised a plan of immediate action and even after digesting the plan over the weekend; markets are still trading on a positive note. The immediate reaction saw investors moving to more risk assets, pushing gold and crude oil to new highs, and the DX plummeted. Commodity currencies such as the Aussie, the Kiwi and the Looney saw sizeable gains.
Over the weekend, reports showed growth in China’s manufacturing activity had fallen to a seven-month low in June, official figures showed, despite government efforts to arrest a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped to 50.2 in June from 50.4 in May, industry group the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement.
Economists saw a glimmer of hope in the latest figure, as it was better than expected, but said they believed the government must further ease monetary policy to avert a sharp slowdown in economic growth.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data July 1-2, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||||||||
|
Jul. 01 |
KRW |
South Korean Trade Balance |
5.00B |
2.30B |
|||||||||
|
CNY |
Chinese Mfg PMI |
50.20 |
49.80 |
50.40 |
|||||||||
|
Jul. 02 |
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
2.2% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
||||||||
|
KRW |
South Korean CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
||||||||||
|
AUD |
AIG Manufacturing Index |
47.4 |
42.4 |
||||||||||
|
JPY |
Tankan Large Mfg Index |
-1 |
-4 |
-4 |
|||||||||
|
JPY |
Tankan Non-Mfg Index |
8 |
7 |
5 |
|||||||||
|
KRW |
South Korean HSBC Mfg PMI |
49.38 |
51.03 |
||||||||||
|
AUD |
MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
||||||||||
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Mfg PMI |
48.20 |
48.10 |
||||||||||
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 3 |
12:30am |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
10:00am |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
7:30pm |
AUD |
AIG Services Index |
43.5 |
||
|
9:30pm |
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jul 4 |
9:30pm |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.51B |
-0.20B |
|
Jul 5 |
8:15am |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
101K |
133K |
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
385K |
386K |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.1 |
53.7 |
|
|
11:00am |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.1M |
||
|
Jul 6 |
8:30am |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
92K |
69K |
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.2% |
Click here to read AUD/USD Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
