By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD is trading at a low of 0.9697, having fallen over half a US cent after the release of weak Chinese manufacturing data. The official Chinese purchasing managers index (PMI) for May fell to 50.4 points, from 53.3 in April. A reading below 50 point indicates a fall in manufacturing activity.
Earlier, the Aussie dropped to 0.9647 US cents, an eight-month low.
The AUD has been suffering due to a drop in retail sales reported earlier this week.
The Chinese data was just another reason to sell the Australian dollar, which has spent the past two weeks below parity with the US dollar because of market pessimism about the euro zone debt crisis.
Weak manufacturing data from China has increased concerns on the world’s fastest growing economy. Investor sentiments weakened further and led to downside pressure on Asian equities in today’s trading session. US equities also ended lower in yesterday’s trade on the back of poor economic data that suggested the US economy was still on a slow growth trajectory amid the heightening European economic crisis.
US (ADP) Non-Farm Employment Change increased by 133,000 in May from previous 113,000 in April. Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose at slow pace of 1.9 percent in Q1 of 2012 as against a rise of 2.2 percent in Q4 of 2011.
Unemployment Claims increased unexpectedly by 383,000 for the week ending on 25th May as compared to 373,000 in prior week. Prelim GDP Price Index rose by 1.7 percent in first quarter of 2012 with respect to 1.5 percent in last quarter of 2011. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined by 3.5 points to 52.7-level in May when compared to 56.2 percent in April.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data May 31- June 1, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
08:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate |
6.7% |
6.8% |
6.8% |
|
|
08:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
0K |
-5K |
18K |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
133K |
148K |
113K |
|
|
13:30 |
Current Account |
-10.3B |
-11.0B |
-9.7B |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
383K |
370K |
373K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
2.2% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3242K |
3250K |
3278K |
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.7 |
56.5 |
56.2 |
|
|
Jun. 01 |
00:00 |
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
|
00:50 |
JPY |
Capital Spending |
3.30% |
1.30% |
7.60% |
|
|
02:00 |
CNY |
Chinese Manufacturing PMI |
50.40 |
52.20 |
53.30 |
|
|
03:30 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
48.40 |
48.70 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 4 |
1:30 |
AUD |
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m |
-3.1% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Company Operating Profits q/q |
-6.5% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
-1.5% |
|
|
23:30 |
AUD |
AIG Services Index |
39.6 |
|
|
Jun 5 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Current Account |
-8.4B |
|
4:30 |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.75% |
3.75% |
|
4:30 |
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.5 |
|
|
Jun 6 |
1:30 |
AUD |
GDP q/q |
0.4% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
-0.5% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
Beige Book |
||
|
Jun 7 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
4.9% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
15.5K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
383K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Current Account |
0.79T |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Final GDP q/q |
1.0% |
|
|
Jun 8 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-1.59B |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Home Loans m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 31 14:30 Sweden
Jun 04 10:00 Norway
Jun 05 00:30 Japan
Jun 05 09:30
Jun 05 14:30 Sweden
Jun 06 09:30 Germany
Jun 06 09:30 Portugal
Jun 06 14:30 UK
Jun 07 00:30 Japan
Jun 07 08:30 Spain
Jun 07 08:50 France
Jun 07 09:10 Sweden
Jun 07 15:00 US
Jun 08 10:00 Belgium
Jun 08 15:30 Italy
Click here a current AUD/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
