Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular trend may still be in effect.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,790.62, up 0.48%) absolute price opened higher and added to gains during the session on Thursday. SPX closed near its highest levels of the day and at a new all-time high. The NASDAQ Composite rose less than half as much, however, and the Small-Cap Russell 2000 declined slightly.
NYSE total volume fell 7% to a level 15% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line and the Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE both rose again on Thursday–with more vigor than on Wednesday. Although both Lines remain systematically bullish above 50- and 200-day day SMAs, both remain below their recent highs, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the major price indexes, most of which are making higher highs.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P rose modestly again on Thursday after relatively weak trends over recent weeks. Still, they remain stubbornly and bearishly divergent below previous highs for the year as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the Bullish case rests on the Fed’s Quantitative Easing, highly-accommodative monetary policy, massive money printing out of thin air and backed by nothing…forever without end. New highs for the stock market price indexes mean that the Bullish case still rules at this time.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/14/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/12/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular trend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/7/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 10/30/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 11/7/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below its 200- day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/12/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 32.98, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 121.72, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 19.69, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/14/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/4/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.94% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
4.46% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
0.54% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
4.87% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
3.33% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
0.44% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
2.58% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
3.35% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.73% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.40% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.17% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
1.29% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
2.01% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
3.88% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
2.72% , MET , METLIFE
3.14% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
2.60% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
1.66% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
2.67% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
2.37% , TYC , TYCO INTL
0.39% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
2.22% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.90% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
1.35% , AEE , AMEREN
2.94% , KBH , KB HOME
1.86% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
0.88% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.33% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.28% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
2.55% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.56% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
0.59% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.08% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-10.96% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-7.14% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-4.34% , XLNX , XILINX
-8.08% , KSS , KOHLS
-5.36% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-2.47% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-2.80% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
-3.87% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-2.32% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-2.17% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-0.31% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-1.39% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.57% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.56% , TER , TERADYNE
-1.15% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.29% , A , AGILENT TECH
-0.56% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-0.76% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-0.53% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-1.12% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.04% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-1.32% , TXT , TEXTRON
-1.07% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.18% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.50% , BBY , BEST BUY
-0.36% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.49% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.48% , TIF , TIFFANY
-0.33% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-0.39% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.72% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.28% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.62% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.67% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.58% , Mexico Index, EWW
2.55% , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.47% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.22% , Brazil Index, EWZ
2.01% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.91% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.65% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.63% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.61% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.53% , India PS, PIN
1.48% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.40% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.37% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.25% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.22% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.16% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.10% , Russia MV, RSX
1.03% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.96% , Water Resources, PHO
0.92% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.89% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.88% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.86% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.85% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.84% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.84% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.83% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.81% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.81% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.79% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.78% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.77% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.75% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.75% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.74% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.73% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.73% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.72% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.71% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.70% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.70% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.69% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.67% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.66% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.64% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.62% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.62% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.60% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.60% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.59% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.59% , Energy Global, IXC
0.59% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.55% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.55% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.55% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.53% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.53% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.51% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.51% , Dividend International, PID
0.50% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.50% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.50% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.50% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.49% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.49% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.49% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.49% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.48% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.48% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.48% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.47% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.47% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.45% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.45% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.45% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.44% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.44% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.43% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.43% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.42% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.42% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.41% , Germany Index, EWG
0.41% , Canada Index, EWC
0.40% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.38% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.38% , Australia Index, EWA
0.38% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.37% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.37% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.36% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.35% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.35% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.35% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.34% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.33% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.32% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.31% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.31% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.29% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.29% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.28% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.27% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.26% , Global 100, IOO
0.25% , France Index, EWQ
0.24% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.24% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.22% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.20% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.17% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.17% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.17% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.16% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.12% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.09% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.08% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.05% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.07% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.07% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.09% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.10% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.18% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.19% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.20% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.24% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.28% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.31% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.35% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.39% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.42% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.45% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.49% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.50% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.57% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.72% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.90% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.10% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.91% , Networking, IGN
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1720.98, 50-day SMA
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1636.04, 200-day SMA
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
