Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/2/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to its highest level in 10 months on 5/2/14 and remains systematically bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Bond (TIP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 10 months on 5/2/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell to its lowest level in 12 weeks on 5/2/14 and remains systematically bearish.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,881.14, down 0.13%) absolute price opened nearly unchanged and rose to its high of the day at 10:14 am ET before sagging modestly lower. SPX closed below both the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. Two consecutive daily Spinning Top Candlesticks suggested indecision.
NYSE total volume fell 8% to a level 5% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 241 from 267 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to price. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears to be deteriorating technically. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 4/30/14 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at a new closing price high to confirm the new high by the Dow-Jones Transportation Average on 4/23/14. Such a confirmation suggests that significant stock market sectors are in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing. Absolute price of QQQ crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 4/28/14, thereby confirming a significant downtrend. MDY/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The declining 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing. Absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 4/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell to its lowest level in 2 years on 4/10/14. UUP turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 4/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. From a longer-term perspective, UUP price has whipsawed around its 50-day SMA for many months but still has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. For nearly 3 years, since 5/4/11, UUP has been fluctuating between 23.14 and 20.84. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose to its highest level in 18 months on 4/29/14 and remains systematically bullish. DBA price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/30/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price has stabilized since June and could be forming a base. Currently, the price trend remains systematically neutral. Support: 122.84, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since GDX absolute price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/1/14. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.16, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/2/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.76% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
4.75% , EL , Estee Lauder
3.46% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
7.28% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
3.87% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
6.14% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
3.46% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
1.99% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
1.08% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
1.40% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
1.85% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
4.57% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
1.15% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
0.31% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
1.38% , HSP , HOSPIRA
1.49% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
0.34% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1.02% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.51% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
0.39% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.74% , KR , KROGER
0.56% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.35% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
1.15% , BA , BOEING
1.16% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
1.41% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
0.26% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
1.67% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.73% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
0.43% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
1.25% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
0.98% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.22% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.91% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-3.45% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-2.31% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-3.74% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
-3.86% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-2.29% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-2.05% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.53% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-2.21% , BLL , BALL
-0.68% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-0.73% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-2.30% , SO , SOUTHERN
-0.64% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-1.48% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.52% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-1.40% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-0.17% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.25% , PCAR , PACCAR
-1.21% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
-0.78% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
-1.13% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-0.46% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.93% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-0.23% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.62% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
-0.16% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.17% , VTV , Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.98% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
-0.29% , DIA , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.49% , MMM , 3M
-0.32% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.17% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.12% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.46% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.98% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.85% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.47% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.25% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.17% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.02% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.86% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.82% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.79% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.79% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.66% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.62% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.58% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.56% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.54% , India PS, PIN
0.51% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.48% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.47% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.46% , Canada Index, EWC
0.40% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.39% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.39% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.38% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.36% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.35% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.32% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.32% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.30% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.30% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.29% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.27% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.27% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.27% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.26% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.26% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.25% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.25% , Austria Index, EWO
0.23% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.23% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.23% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.23% , Australia Index, EWA
0.22% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.22% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.22% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.21% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.21% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.20% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.20% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.18% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.18% , Networking, IGN
0.18% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.17% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.16% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.15% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.15% , Energy Global, IXC
0.15% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.15% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.14% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.12% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.12% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.10% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.10% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.09% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.09% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.08% , Dividend International, PID
0.08% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.08% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.08% , Water Resources, PHO
0.08% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.07% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.05% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.03% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.03% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.03% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.02% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.01% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.02% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.03% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.03% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.04% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.04% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.05% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.05% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.07% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.07% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.07% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.08% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.08% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.09% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.09% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.11% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.14% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.14% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.14% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.15% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.15% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.16% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.16% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.16% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.17% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.18% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.18% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.18% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.19% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.20% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.20% , Global 100, IOO
-0.22% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.23% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.24% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.24% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.24% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.26% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.27% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.27% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.29% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.30% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.32% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.33% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.35% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.37% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.44% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.46% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.50% , France Index, EWQ
-0.50% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.54% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.64% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.65% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.75% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.82% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.86% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.33% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.85% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.85% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.05% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1890.90, close of 4/2/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1862.72, 50-day SMA
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1777.08, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
