Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to its highest level in 10 months on 5/1/14 and remains systematically bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Bond (TIP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 10 months on 5/1/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell to its lowest level in 12 weeks on 5/1/14 and remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/1/14 and remains systematically bearish.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Materials stock sector ETF (XLB) Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/1/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,883.68, down 0.01%) absolute price opened lower and continued down to its low of the day at 10:18 am ET. SPX reversed and rose to its highest intraday price in more than 3 weeks at 11:40 am ET before turning down again. SPX closed very near both the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. The Spinning Top Candlestick suggested indecision.
NYSE total volume fell 9% to a level 3% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 267 from 212 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to price. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears to be deteriorating technically. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 4/30/14 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at a new closing price high to confirm the new high by the Dow-Jones Transportation Average on 4/23/14. Such a confirmation suggests that significant stock market sectors are in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing. Absolute price of QQQ crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 4/28/14, thereby confirming a significant downtrend. MDY/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The declining 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing. Absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 4/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell to its lowest level in 2 years on 4/10/14. UUP turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 4/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. From a longer-term perspective, UUP price has whipsawed around its 50-day SMA for many months but still has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. For nearly 3 years, since 5/4/11, UUP has been fluctuating between 23.14 and 20.84. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose to its highest level in 18 months on 4/29/14 and remains systematically bullish. DBA price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/30/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price has stabilized since June and could be forming a base. Currently, the price trend remains systematically neutral. Support: 122.84, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since GDX absolute price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/1/14. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 4/30/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.89% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
7.98% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
4.29% , ASH , ASHLAND
0.10% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
4.30% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
2.69% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.46% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
2.78% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
4.50% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
1.09% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
2.83% , ITT , ITT INDS
0.28% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
2.20% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
0.89% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
2.74% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
0.28% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.77% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.67% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
4.05% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
1.33% , BLL , BALL
0.22% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
2.61% , WMB , WILLIAMS
2.25% , WAG , WALGREEN
0.38% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
2.71% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.35% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
0.70% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.34% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
0.60% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
1.24% , MMM , 3M
0.60% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.07% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.45% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.17% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-10.21% , AVP , AVON
-6.32% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-0.45% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-4.69% , TXT , TEXTRON
-2.64% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.95% , HAR , Harman International
-1.46% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-0.39% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.98% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.06% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-0.57% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-1.14% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-0.91% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-0.26% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.37% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.22% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.05% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-1.49% , MET , METLIFE
-2.18% , K , KELLOGG
-1.85% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-1.35% , ALTR , ALTERA
-0.59% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-0.16% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-0.81% , LM , LEGG MASON
-1.29% , UTX , UNITED TECH
-0.10% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-4.48% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-0.51% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.43% , CLX , CLOROX
-0.78% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-1.07% , ZION , ZIONS
-1.65% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.92% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.27% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.26% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.22% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.97% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.89% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.86% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.85% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.83% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.77% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.70% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.68% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.67% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.67% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.61% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.60% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.52% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.50% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.47% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.45% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.43% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.42% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.40% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.39% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.38% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.35% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.35% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.34% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.30% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.28% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.28% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.28% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.28% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.24% , Dividend International, PID
0.22% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.22% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.22% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.21% , Spain Index, EWP
0.20% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.20% , France Index, EWQ
0.19% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.19% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.18% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.17% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.17% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.17% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.17% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.16% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.13% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.13% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.13% , Germany Index, EWG
0.13% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.12% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.12% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.11% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.11% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.10% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.10% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.10% , Austria Index, EWO
0.10% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.10% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.10% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.09% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.08% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.08% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.07% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.07% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.07% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.07% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.07% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.07% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.07% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.04% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.04% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.04% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.03% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.03% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.02% , Energy Global, IXC
0.01% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.00% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.00% , India PS, PIN
0.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.02% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.04% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.04% , Global 100, IOO
-0.04% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.05% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.05% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.06% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.07% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.07% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.09% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.10% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.11% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.11% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.11% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.11% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.12% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.13% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.14% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.15% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.16% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.20% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.22% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.22% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.23% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.23% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.23% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.24% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.25% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.26% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.27% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.28% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.32% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.33% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.34% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.37% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.38% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.39% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.40% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.40% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.41% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.44% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.45% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.45% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.48% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.51% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.53% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.53% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.55% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.57% , Networking, IGN
-0.60% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.63% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.76% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.91% , Australia Index, EWA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1890.90, close of 4/2/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1861.90, 50-day SMA
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1776.08, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
