Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 7/8/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 7/8/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 7/8/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically bullish since 6/5/14 but has begun to show weakness since peaking on 7/1/14.
Industrial stock sector ETF (XLI) Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) sagged further below its lows of the previous 8 months on 7/8/14, suggesting a significant downtrend. Absolute price has worked a few percentage points lower since peaking at 55.82 on 6/9/14.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/3/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,963.71, down 0.70%) absolute price opened lower worked further downward to its low of the day at 12:19 pm ET. Stocks attempted to recover for 90 minutes in the early afternoon but surrendered part of that recovery in the final 137 minutes. SPX closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing prices of the previous 4 trading days.
NYSE total volume rose 22% to a level 2% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 83, has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD both turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to match their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 turned down from a peak of 91 on 7/7/14, which was below its June peak above 98 set on 6/4/14, for another example of bearish divergence.
For the stock market, end/beginning of month and pre-holiday (4th of July) bullish seasonal tendencies have now expired, stock prices are overbought and overvalued, sentiment indicators are off the charts and into the danger zone, bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always). These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the market has been ignoring for months.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 6/30/14–this after falling below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, and thereby reconfirming its long-term bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.60, 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months on 7/7/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price peaked on 6/20/14 and corrected moderately lower since. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 37.21, 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/3/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/2/14 and is now systematically bullish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/2/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 6/26/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/2/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.20% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.55% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
1.56% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
1.83% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
2.36% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.72% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
1.04% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
0.59% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.24% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.16% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.93% , CL , COLGATE
0.92% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.05% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
0.65% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.84% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
0.86% , SVU , SUPERVALU
0.66% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
0.98% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
0.70% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
0.82% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
0.75% , AA , ALCOA
0.51% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
0.67% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
1.11% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
0.76% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
1.49% , EIX , EDISON INTL
0.47% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
0.56% , JWN , NORDSTROM
0.88% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
1.45% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
0.78% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
0.27% , BLL , BALL
0.41% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.87% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-3.12% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-0.88% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-2.25% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-3.34% , WAG , WALGREEN
-3.88% , FB.O , Facebook, Inc., FB
-1.51% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.85% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-4.85% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-0.81% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-3.59% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.03% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-3.87% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-2.92% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-2.31% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-1.44% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-2.02% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-2.31% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-0.77% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-3.77% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.60% , EMC , EMC
-1.92% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-2.16% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-2.25% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-3.25% , NCR , NCR
-1.79% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.90% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-1.73% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-1.92% , GOOG , Google
-1.07% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-3.38% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-2.19% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.75% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.12% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.71% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.70% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.69% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.68% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.65% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.58% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.46% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.37% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.35% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.32% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.31% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.30% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.29% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.26% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.20% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.20% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.15% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.15% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.12% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.12% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.07% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.06% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.04% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.03% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% , Canada Index, EWC
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.08% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.08% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.09% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.11% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.12% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.15% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.16% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.18% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.20% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.23% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.26% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.26% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.27% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.29% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.31% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.33% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.34% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.34% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.35% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.36% , Dividend International, PID
-0.36% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.37% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.38% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.38% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.39% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.42% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.43% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.43% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.44% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.45% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.47% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.48% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.48% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.49% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.50% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.51% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.52% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.52% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.54% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.57% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.59% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.60% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.61% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.64% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.64% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.64% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.64% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.65% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.68% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.68% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.68% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.69% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.71% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.71% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.73% , Global 100, IOO
-0.74% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.75% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.75% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.76% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.77% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.80% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.81% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.82% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.82% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.82% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.83% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.85% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.85% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.87% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.90% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.90% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.90% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.92% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.94% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.94% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.98% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.00% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.01% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.02% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.04% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.05% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.06% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.11% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.13% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.14% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.16% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.17% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.17% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.18% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.21% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.21% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.21% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.25% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.33% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.39% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.42% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.46% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.51% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.52% , France Index, EWQ
-1.52% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.62% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.73% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.79% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.90% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.90% , Networking, IGN
-2.25% , Italy Index, EWI
-2.39% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.12% , India PS, PIN
-3.52% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.59% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.77% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1985.59, high of 7/3/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1944.69, low of 6/26/2014
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1921.61, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1832.97, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
