Junk Bond ETF (JNK) absolute price turned systematically bearish on 7/5/13.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/5/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/5/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/5/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 2 years on 7/5/13 and remains systematically bearish.
Health Care (XLV) absolute price whipsawed up above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Industrial (XLI) absolute price whipsawed up above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Materials (XLB) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) remains systematically bearish. XLB/SPY fell to its lowest level in 6 years on 7/5/13, thereby confirming its long-term major downtrend.
Utilities (XLU) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) remains systematically bearish. XLU/SPY fell to its lowest level in 8 years on 7/5/13 and has been trending down since the XLU/SPY ratio peaked on 11/21/2008
The S&P Mid Cap 400 ETF (MDY) absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
U.S. stock indexes opened higher on Friday, absorbed some early selling pressure, then began an uneven advance to close above their opening prices, above their highest levels of the previous 10 trading days, and above resistance at their 50-day SMAs.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,631.89) finished higher by 1.02%. SPX faces further resistance at 1,638.72, the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of its May-June decline.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE fell again and remained below its 50-day SMA. Volume is not confirming a significant stock market rally.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE also fell again and remained below its 50-day SMA. Breadth is not confirming a significant stock market rally.
On Monday, 6/24/13, the S&P 500 fell to its lowest closing price in 8 weeks, since 4/22/13. It fell 5.76% from 5/21/13 to 6/24/13, based on closing prices–the largest down wave since last September-November. It also was the longest in time, lasting 24 trading days. The magnitude and duration of the price decline is probably telling us that trend was different from all previous minor price corrections since last November.
A wide variety of technical oscillators previously had given early warning after losing upside momentum and showing persistent bearish divergences over periods of weeks and months. Now, it seems quite apparent that there has been considerable technical damage to the previously bullish stock market trend. This damage probably signals a Secondary Reaction (a significant correction phase) or possibly worse. In any case, caution still seems warranted–despite the recent 8-day minor price bounce.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction on 6/21/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed below their price lows of the previous 7 weeks. Previously, on 5/28/13, the Dow Theory warned of a non-confirmation, bearish divergence when the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high. A Secondary Reaction is often significant in extent and duration, possibly retracing a substantial fraction of the previous move over a period lasting several months.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) has been systematically neutral since 4/30/13, when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, for more than a year from 4/10/12 to 4/18/13, QQQ underperformed SPY. Given that longer term trends have more proven staying power than shorter term trends, there is a very good chance that the longer term downtrend will resume. Absolute price has been consolidating since peaking on 5/22/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/5/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/5/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/5/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) is currently systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) is currently systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price has moved sideways since 5/22/13.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) is currently systematically bullish. MDY/SPY crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/1/13. Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13 but managed to cross back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 2 years on 7/5/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.17% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
6.80% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
1.67% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.00% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
5.41% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
4.67% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
2.06% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
4.99% , KEY , KEYCORP
1.64% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.72% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
1.19% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.19% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
3.66% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
2.54% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
1.85% , ITT , ITT INDS
1.63% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
2.33% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
4.31% , ZION , ZIONS
4.01% , CMA , COMERICA
0.91% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
5.31% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
1.96% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
4.22% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.67% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
1.90% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
1.46% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
1.63% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
1.06% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
0.44% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
2.25% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
1.53% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
2.88% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
1.16% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.32% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-2.81% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-4.02% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-3.41% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-3.14% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.94% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.42% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.84% , MDP , MEREDITH
-4.27% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.09% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-2.10% , DELL , DELL
-1.03% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.10% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-0.81% , PPL , PPL
-0.92% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.54% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.36% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.75% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.60% , SO , SOUTHERN
-0.64% , EEM , Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.72% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.43% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.23% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.10% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.36% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
3.14% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.38% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.14% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.01% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.83% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.80% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.67% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.64% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.63% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.58% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.57% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.57% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.57% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.57% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.42% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.41% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.40% , Water Resources, PHO
1.40% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.37% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.36% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.33% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.33% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.31% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.31% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.30% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.29% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.25% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.24% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.23% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.20% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.19% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.19% , Italy Index, EWI
1.18% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.17% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.16% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.16% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.15% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.14% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.12% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.12% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.11% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.08% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.08% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.07% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.07% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.07% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.07% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.04% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.04% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.03% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.01% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.01% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.99% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.98% , Networking, IGN
0.98% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.94% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.94% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.89% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.88% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.85% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.81% , Australia Index, EWA
0.79% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.79% , Spain Index, EWP
0.78% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.76% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.71% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.68% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.66% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.65% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.65% , Austria Index, EWO
0.65% , Global 100, IOO
0.65% , France Index, EWQ
0.65% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.64% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.64% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.62% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.61% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.58% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.57% , Energy Global, IXC
0.56% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.55% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.49% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.47% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.44% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.25% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.25% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.18% , Dividend International, PID
0.18% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.12% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.04% , Russia MV, RSX
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.07% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.07% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.11% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.13% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.23% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.25% , India PS, PIN
-0.27% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.28% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.29% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.31% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.31% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.47% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.47% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.48% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.54% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.55% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.55% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.63% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.64% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.74% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.75% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.79% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.90% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.92% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.03% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.03% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.05% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.05% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.07% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-1.08% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.09% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-1.27% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.27% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-1.29% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.30% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.35% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.36% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.36% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-1.54% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-1.68% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.94% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.99% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-2.09% , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.19% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.28% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-3.14% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-3.41% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-4.26% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, high of 5/28/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1625.74, 50-day SMA
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1513.84, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
