My Trade or Fade service had today labeled as a “trade’ or directional setup for April Crude Oil futures today, as yesterday’s range was 57% of Monday’s range. I naturally tend to look for a directional move in crude on the day that crude inventories are released, so this was on my watch list. Let’s see how the trade went.
Above is last night’s Trade or Fade report for crude oil. As it was a trade day, I was looking to buy a rally above R-1 at R-1, 42.96 (I highlighted this in yellow). Profit targets were R-2 at 44.55, then last Thursday’s high at 45.30 (see the top, daily chart). Not the trendline resistance on the daily chart, drawn across the three recent swing highs.
Moving down to a 10 minute intraday chart, you can see that crude first traded through R-1 about 4:50 AM this morning, saw a little followthrough, then drifted back down below R-1. When I got in the office this morning, about 7 AM, it was starting another move back up. I’ve found that the second pass through a breakout point is often a good trade to think, and that was the case today. In about two hours time crude traded to the first profit objective of R-2 (44.76) at about 9 AM, and traded to the Feb. 26th high around 10:10 AM. That high stopped the rally, and any remaining positions should have been sold there.
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