iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 7/23/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. Short term, BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish again on 8/14/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,403.93) fell 0.18 points or 0.01% on Tuesday. SPX is demonstrating a clear loss of momentum over the past 6 trading days. Last week, short-term momentum oscillators failed to rise above June-July highs to confirm the S&P 500. Cracks are becoming more visible.
NYSE volume rose 17% to confirm the price downturn. Volume has been running near the lowest levels of the year since 8/8/12, possibly reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks, as well as summer vacations. On-Balance Volume for the SPX remains in a downtrend with bearish divergence. NYSE Cumulative Volume of Advancing Stocks minus Volume of Declining Stocks remains weak relative to price. Volume has not been confirming the price up move.
Technical market conditions suggest that downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/7/12 turning systematically neutral. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. TLT rose to a new high on 7/24/12, thereby confirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 123.75, 122.06, 120.60, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 130.69 and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/7/12 turning systematically neutral. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. IEF rose to a new high on 7/24/12, thereby confirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 107.42, 107.43, 105.85, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 109.32 and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/7/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. JNK/LQD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA fell below its 200-day SMA on 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/1/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. TIP/IEF remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA on 6/27/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) challenged Thursday’s high on Friday on USDA crop estimate news but reversed to close below Thursday’s low in a relatively wide-range session on relatively high volume. That looks like bearish action for the short term. Following 8 weeks of rising prices on drought news, DBA looks extended, so a period of correction and consolidation would come as no surprise. DBA is systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/13/12. High food prices could bring trouble for the general economy because more consumer spending for food means less consumer spending available for other goods and services.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMA. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.37, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/12, turning systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again for the short term. SLV remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. Short term, SLV/GLD turned systematically neutral again when it rose above (although only slightly) its 50-day SMA on 8/14/12. SLV/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/13/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC fell to its lowest level in 8 months on 8/2/12, thereby confirming its major bearish trend. JJC price remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since 12/31/10. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this relative weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.31% , EL , Estee Lauder
0.83% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
2.02% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.42% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
3.19% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
3.58% , HD , HOME DEPOT
1.88% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
5.80% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
2.14% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
0.16% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
2.79% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
0.45% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
2.52% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
1.88% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
2.17% , NBR , NABORS
0.99% , CLX , CLOROX
1.12% , EIX , EDISON INTL
3.09% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
1.66% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
1.17% , RAI , Reynolds American
1.96% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
1.07% , AVP , AVON
0.59% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
1.29% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
1.16% , WMB , WILLIAMS
1.49% , TIF , TIFFANY
2.09% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
1.24% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
1.00% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
0.75% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
1.07% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.06% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
1.17% , MAS , MASCO
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.83% , NCR , NCR
-2.01% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-1.79% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-6.98% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-0.55% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-3.85% , EMC , EMC
-5.46% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-1.11% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-0.89% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-1.09% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-1.13% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-1.75% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-0.77% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.08% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-4.69% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-2.46% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-1.35% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.86% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.50% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-0.43% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
-1.36% , STT , STATE STREET
-1.51% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-2.88% , COH , COACH
-0.38% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.25% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-1.29% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.33% , PLL , PALL
-0.57% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-1.83% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-0.94% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-1.30% , CVS , CVS
-1.92% , UIS , UNISYS
-1.69% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.07% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.90% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.80% China 25 iS, FXI
0.75% Singapore Index, EWS
0.75% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.75% South Korea Index, EWY
0.71% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.63% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.49% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.48% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.45% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.45% Spain Index, EWP
0.45% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.44% Canada Index, EWC
0.43% Russia MV, RSX
0.41% India PS, PIN
0.41% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.41% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.40% Dividend International, PID
0.39% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.38% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.37% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.36% Germany Index, EWG
0.36% European VIPERs, VGK
0.35% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.33% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.28% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.27% Italy Index, EWI
0.26% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.26% Mexico Index, EWW
0.26% Belgium Index, EWK
0.25% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.25% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.25% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.23% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.23% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.21% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.18% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.16% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.15% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.15% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.15% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.14% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.11% Sweden Index, EWD
0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.10% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.10% France Index, EWQ
0.10% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.09% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.09% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.09% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.08% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.06% South Africa Index, EZA
0.06% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.06% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.05% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.04% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.04% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.04% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.03% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.03% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.02% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.02% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.01% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.01% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.00% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.00% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Energy Global, IXC
0.00% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.01% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.01% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.03% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.03% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.03% Global 100, IOO
-0.03% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.03% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.04% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.05% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.05% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.06% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.06% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.06% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.07% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.07% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.07% Austria Index, EWO
-0.11% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.11% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.12% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.13% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.14% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.15% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.15% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.15% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.17% Australia Index, EWA
-0.18% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.18% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.18% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.18% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.18% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.19% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.20% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.20% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.21% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.22% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.23% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.23% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.24% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.24% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.25% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.26% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.27% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.28% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.30% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.31% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.31% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.37% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.38% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.38% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.44% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.45% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.45% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.48% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.49% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.53% Water Resources, PHO
-0.55% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.55% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.62% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.63% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.73% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.77% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.06% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.29% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.35% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.42% Brazil Index, EWZ
