Bullish action in Growth and Energy.
iShares Russell 1000 Growth/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/SPY) rose above 19-month highs and remains bullish.
Energy stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 10-month highs and remains bullish. Absolute price also remains bullish.
Utilities stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows and remains bearish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
Silver broke out above the price ranges of the previous 4 trading days, confirming a reversal of the previous minor price pullback for the short term. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 11/9/10, confirming a bullish major trend.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
The U.S. dollar fell below the previous 3-day lows and further below its steep 12-day uptrend line, confirming that its short-term oversold bounce may have ended.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,199.73) rose 3.04 points or 0.25% on Friday to score a fractional gain for the week. SPX broke out above a 7-day down trend line on Thursday, perhaps ending a typical minor pullback in a bullish larger trend. Longer term, SPX rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.64% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
7.29% , MBI , MBIA
4.05% , NKE , NIKE STK B
6.08% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
4.07% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
3.20% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
5.28% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
0.53% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
2.36% , FISV , FISERV
2.60% , CI , CIGNA
1.48% , GENZ , GENZYME
0.70% , IGN , Networking, IGN
0.51% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
3.87% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
1.35% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
3.21% , X , US STEEL CORP
1.07% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
0.88% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
0.44% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
3.89% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.68% , DELL , DELL
0.47% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
5.50% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
4.69% , SPLS , STAPLES
1.77% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
0.65% , PMR , Retail, PMR
3.13% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
1.63% , AET , AETNA
2.34% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
1.78% , PLL , PALL
0.35% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
1.44% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
1.66% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
2.61% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.15% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
1.05% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
2.90% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
1.84% , CTAS , CINTAS
1.69% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
2.08% , LOW , LOWES
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.78% , INTU , INTUIT
-1.66% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-6.87% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-7.41% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.46% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.34% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
-0.59% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-2.47% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-2.42% , KEY , KEYCORP
-1.41% , NOVL , NOVELL
-0.62% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-1.41% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-5.47% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-1.28% , NI , NISOURCE
-1.44% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.86% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.42% , CEPH , Cephalon Inc
-1.52% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-1.01% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.38% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-0.89% , GAS , NICOR
-1.14% , L , LOEWS
-0.55% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.58% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-1.53% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-0.85% , AEE , AMEREN
-1.00% , GPS , GAP
-3.13% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-1.75% , PWER , POWER ONE
-0.07% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.22% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-0.62% , PPL , PPL
-0.86% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-0.21% , KG , KING PHARM
-0.39% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
-0.33% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-1.28% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-0.72% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-1.21% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
-0.82% , MET , METLIFE
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/17/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 38.25 and 39.09.
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 10-month highs on 11/19/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10 and remains bullish. Support 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 63.89, 69.95 and 78.10.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below 10-week lows on 11/11/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 33.53, 35.00, and 36.16.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 4-week lows on 11/16/10 and turned neutral. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.28 and 25.69.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 2-week lows on 11/16/10 and turned neutral. Absolute price rose above rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 36.71, 37.56, and 39.00.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.31, 28.28, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.27, 29.29 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV rose above 6-month highs on 11/4/10 and is now bullish. Support 30.40, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 31.73, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/19/10. Absolute price of XLU peaked on 10/20/10 and appears neutral. Support 30.90, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) remains bearish, below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price of XLF rose above 5-month highs on 11/5/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 14.62, 14.25, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 15.68, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) emerged above its previous 3-day range and is approaching a repeat bullish signal.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above its previous 8-day range and is approaching a repeat bullish signal.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/2/10 and remains bullish for the long term. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.
iShares Russell 1000 Growth/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/SPY) rose above 19-month highs on 11/19/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 11/19/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 11/10/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 11/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price stabilized and consolidated losses over the past 2 trading days while holding above support at 79.84 and 79.25. Longer term, Oil rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend. Support 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 88.63, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price held firm again on Friday, suggesting that minor selling pressure may have abated for the short term. Longer term, Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 11/9/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Support 1329.0, 1315.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1424.3.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 11-month highs on 11/12/10 and remains bullish.
Silver nearest futures contract price broke out above the price ranges of the previous 4 trading days on 11/19/10, confirming a reversal of the previous minor price pullback for the short term. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 11/9/10, confirming a bullish major trend.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 11/19/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price moved above the 3-day ranges on 11/19/10, again suggesting that the pressure is off for the short term. A further oversold bounce seems possible. Longer term, Copper rose above previous 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.90, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price stabilized since 11/15/10. The bond fell below the lows of the previous 4 months on 11/15/10, confirming the preexisting bearish trend for the intermediate-term trend. Support 127.29, 125.15, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 129.27, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 6-month highs on 11/15/10 and appears to be heading toward a “Golden Cross” (when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA). Absolute price is bullish already.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) sagged lower since 10/26/10, which implies that fixed-income investors actually have been choosing less inflation protection, contrary to those voices warning of inflation recently.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below the previous 3-day lows and further below its steep 12-day uptrend line on 11/19/10, confirming that its short-term oversold bounce may have ended. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 75.235, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 79.585, 80.505, 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 56.2% Bulls versus 20.2% Bears as of 11/17/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.78, which is between one and two standard deviations above the long-term mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell to 17.76 on 11/19/10 from 23.07 on 11/16/10. A relatively low and falling VIX indicates increasing bullish confidence and decreasing concern and hesitancy by options players to chase price strength. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 11/3/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,199.73) rose 3.04 points or 0.25% on Friday to score a fractional gain for the week. SPX broke out above a 7-day down trend line on Thursday, perhaps ending a typical minor pullback in a bullish larger trend. Longer term, SPX rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.61% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.68% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.55% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.53% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.48% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.47% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.10% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.06% Canada Index, EWC
1.00% Mexico Index, EWW
0.99% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.92% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.91% Austria Index, EWO
0.90% Sweden Index, EWD
0.84% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.83% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.82% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.80% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.78% South Korea Index, EWY
0.76% France Index, EWQ
0.74% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.72% Russia MV, RSX
0.70% Networking, IGN
0.66% Germany Index, EWG
0.66% Energy DJ, IYE
0.65% Energy Global, IXC
0.64% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.63% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.62% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.61% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.57% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.57% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.53% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.53% Italy Index, EWI
0.52% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.51% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.51% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.51% Water Resources, PHO
0.50% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.47% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.47% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.47% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.47% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.46% Dividend International, PID
0.46% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.44% Belgium Index, EWK
0.43% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.41% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.41% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.40% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.40% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.38% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.38% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.38% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.36% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.36% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.36% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.36% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.36% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.35% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.35% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.35% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.34% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.34% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.33% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.33% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.31% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.31% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.31% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.30% South Africa Index, EZA
0.30% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.29% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.29% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.28% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.28% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.27% European VIPERs, VGK
0.27% Spain Index, EWP
0.26% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.24% Global 100, IOO
0.23% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.22% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.22% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.21% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.21% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.21% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.21% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.21% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.20% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.20% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.18% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.18% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.15% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.14% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.13% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.13% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.13% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.12% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.11% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% Japan Index, EWJ
0.09% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.08% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.08% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.08% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.06% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.06% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.06% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.05% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.00% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.00% EAFE Index, EFA
0.00% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.02% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.03% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.04% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.09% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.12% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.17% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.23% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.29% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.38% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.42% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.47% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.52% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.59% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.79% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.79% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.81% Australia Index, EWA
-0.98% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.01% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.44% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.66% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.86% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.97% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.47% India PS, PIN
