U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks, confirming a downside correction.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks, thereby confirming a short-term, downside correction.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,325.54) rose 0.11% on Thursday. SPX stayed in a narrow range within the previous day’s high to low range and closed below the open and midpoint of the day. Trading volume fell to a low level.

The SPX shows a bearish divergence compared to sensitive short-term price momentum oscillators. SPX has not been able to exceed its intraday peak of 1333.47 set on 1/26/12, despite the widely-followed 50/200-day SMA “Golden Cross” on 1/31/12, which the bulls hoped would stimulate stock prices. With bullish momentum clearly failing, a downside correction is due.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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AAII Sentiment: There were 44% Bulls and 25% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 2/2/11. That was a moderate decline in mood from the 1/5/12 reading, 49% Bulls and 17% Bears, which was 1.3 standard deviations more optimistic than the 20-year average.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5 months on 1/26/12, hitting 16.80 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Fibonacci 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1333.47, high of 1/26/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.31, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/1/12, turning technically neutral again. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 115.55, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 1/31/12. IEF remains above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 104.00, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/1/12 and remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12 but remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 2/1/12, confirming a downside correction. UUP fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/11, turning technically neutral. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.93, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.41, 22.46, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 4 trading days on 1/30/21. DBA remains neutral, above its 50-day SMA but below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming a short-term, downside correction. USO broke below its 50-day SMA on 2/1/12, confirming a downside correction. Support 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend. GLD broke out above a 4-month downtrend line on 1/25/12. GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12. GLD remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 167.05, 160.29, 159.68, 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/24/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend. SLV rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. SLV remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 32.02, 30.67, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has been rising since 12/28/11. SLV/GLD rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 1/27/12. SLV/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV/GLD fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back below its 200-day SMA on 1/30/12, turning technically neutral. Longer term, JJC’s 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.64% , GPS , GAP
8.27% , BIG , BIG LOTS
10.09% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
2.34% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
4.36% , SLE , SARA LEE
7.08% , CMI , CUMMINS
3.29% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.82% , PMR , Retail, PMR
0.64% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
4.40% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
1.56% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
3.05% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
2.60% , K , KELLOGG
3.72% , NVDA , NVIDIA
3.84% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
3.34% , ALL , ALLSTATE
2.47% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
4.16% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.18% , VTI , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.20% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
2.75% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
1.76% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.22% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
0.82% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
1.52% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
0.30% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
0.68% , IGV , Software, IGV
3.21% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
0.53% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
0.44% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
2.57% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
0.55% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
0.53% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.88% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-5.57% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-8.03% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
-4.11% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-3.39% , CI , CIGNA
-1.86% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-2.81% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-1.11% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-1.16% , FISV , FISERV
-1.51% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-0.77% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-2.41% , SO , SOUTHERN
-2.00% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-0.60% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.03% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-1.80% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-0.37% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-0.60% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
-1.94% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-1.08% , PPL , PPL
-1.07% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-0.94% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-1.15% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-1.68% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-1.04% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-1.36% , SPLS , STAPLES
-1.02% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-0.87% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-0.94% , PFE , PFIZER
-1.35% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
-1.58% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-0.49% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-2.26% , DYN , DYNEGY
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.80% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.56% Austria Index, EWO
1.44% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.43% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.29% China 25 iS, FXI
1.29% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.18% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.15% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.09% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.02% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.98% Spain Index, EWP
0.96% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.91% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.91% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.89% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.88% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.82% Germany Index, EWG
0.76% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.72% Sweden Index, EWD
0.72% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.67% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.64% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.63% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.63% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.62% Mexico Index, EWW
0.62% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.60% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.58% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.57% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.56% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.56% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.55% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.55% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.55% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.54% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.53% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.53% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.52% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.52% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.51% India PS, PIN
0.50% Energy Global, IXC
0.49% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.46% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.45% South Korea Index, EWY
0.44% Energy DJ, IYE
0.44% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.44% Belgium Index, EWK
0.43% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.42% France Index, EWQ
0.42% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.40% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.39% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.37% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.37% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.35% Canada Index, EWC
0.35% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.32% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.31% Japan Index, EWJ
0.31% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.29% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.29% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.29% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.28% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.27% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.27% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.27% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.26% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.26% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.25% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.25% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.25% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.24% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.23% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.23% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.23% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.23% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.23% Italy Index, EWI
0.23% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.22% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.22% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.22% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.22% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.22% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.22% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.21% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.21% Global 100, IOO
0.21% EAFE Index, EFA
0.21% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.20% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.19% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.19% South Africa Index, EZA
0.18% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.18% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.18% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.16% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.16% Singapore Index, EWS
0.16% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.16% European VIPERs, VGK
0.15% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.14% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.14% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.12% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.12% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.10% Networking, IGN
0.09% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.09% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.07% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.07% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.05% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.04% Australia Index, EWA
0.04% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.04% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.03% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.02% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.02% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.00% Dividend International, PID
0.00% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.00% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.04% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.04% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.06% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.09% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.10% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.12% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.12% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.16% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.17% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.39% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.48% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.53% Water Resources, PHO
-0.55% Russia MV, RSX
-0.60% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.66% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.67% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.70% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO