The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,427.84) rose 9.29 points or 0.65% on Tuesday.
NYSE trading volume rose 6% on Tuesday to a level that was 11% below its 200-day SMA. Low volume indicates tepid demand for stocks.
SPX rose further above its falling 50-day SMA, now at 1416.48.
SPX price penetrated technical resistance near the 1,424.41 level, which is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the SPX September-November price range.
Speculators appear to be still hoping for some kind of deal on the fiscal cliff, they definitely are counting on continuing massive asset purchases by the Fed, and the majority is hoping for a year-end rally. Bullish sentiment has been high for months and is rising into year end.
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Long-term momentum has been showing bearish divergence and has weakened considerably since the SPX price peak on 9/14/12.
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For Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Silver Turned Bullish Again
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/12, thereby turning systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,418.55) rose 0.48 points or 0.03% on Monday.
NYSE trading volume fell 3% on Monday to a level that was 17% below its 200-day SMA. Low volume indicates tepid demand for stocks.
SPX held slightly above its falling 50-day SMA, now at 1416.86, for the second consecutive trading day. A 3-point SPX price drop would produce a whipsaw back down below this declining 50-day SMA.
SPX price faces technical resistance near the 1,424.41 level, which is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the SPX September-November price range.
Speculators appear to be still hoping for some kind of deal on the fiscal cliff, and the majority is hoping for a year-end rally. Neither appear particularly likely.
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Long-term momentum has been showing bearish divergence and has weakened considerably since the SPX price peak on 9/14/12. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts preserved capital over the past 9 weeks while the S&P 500 fell 8.9%, based on intraday highs and lows from 9/14/12 to 11/16/12. In addition, our clients’ accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1416.86, 50-day SMA
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1398.23, low of 12/5/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1386.40, 200-day SMA
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 123.43, 121.78, 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and IEF’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.99, 107.25, 106.59, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/28/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bullish again on 12/6/12 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. TIP/IEF rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/27/12, and the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 10/10/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral again on 12/6/12 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.77, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral again on 11/30/12 when price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, although the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.93, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below support at 165.18 on 12/4/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 163.20, 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12, but a bearish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 31.48, 31.00, 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/20/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 11/30/12. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.52% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
4.65% , PWER , POWER ONE
3.02% , MDP , MEREDITH
0.82% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
1.89% , CR , CRANE
0.23% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
2.43% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
2.72% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
1.29% , SNV , SYNOVUS
4.57% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
1.07% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
3.39% , NVDA , NVIDIA
3.65% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.58% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
0.35% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
1.65% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
1.33% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
3.09% , TER , TERADYNE
1.10% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1.82% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.99% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
1.86% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
2.21% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
2.36% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
0.53% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
0.98% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
2.51% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
1.72% , PLL , PALL
0.63% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
0.68% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.39% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
1.03% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
0.44% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.75% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.89% , GPS , GAP
-1.81% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-2.59% , VFC , VF
-1.85% , IR , INGER RAND
-1.61% , TIF , TIFFANY
-2.37% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-2.17% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-1.88% , APA , APACHE
-0.61% , SPLS , STAPLES
-1.02% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-1.20% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-0.32% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.23% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.43% , FHN , First Horizon National
-0.40% , UIS , UNISYS
-0.31% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.12% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.10% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.53% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-0.25% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-1.46% , CL , COLGATE
-0.42% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.15% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-0.16% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.55% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.11% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.39% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-0.21% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-0.24% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-0.34% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-0.11% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.19% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.82% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.73% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.33% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.30% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.20% Mexico Index, EWW
1.07% Networking, IGN
1.07% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.01% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.95% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.94% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.92% China 25 iS, FXI
0.92% Canada Index, EWC
0.88% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.82% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.82% South Africa Index, EZA
0.79% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.72% Russia MV, RSX
0.69% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.68% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.66% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.66% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.64% Water Resources, PHO
0.64% South Korea Index, EWY
0.64% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.62% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.62% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.58% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.57% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.53% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.52% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.52% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.52% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.52% Dividend International, PID
0.51% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.50% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.49% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.49% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.49% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.47% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.44% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.44% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.44% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.42% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.42% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.41% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.40% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.39% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.39% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.38% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.37% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.35% France Index, EWQ
0.35% Austria Index, EWO
0.35% Sweden Index, EWD
0.34% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.34% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.34% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.33% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.32% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.29% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.28% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.27% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.27% European VIPERs, VGK
0.24% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.24% Australia Index, EWA
0.23% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.22% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.22% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.21% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.18% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.18% Energy Global, IXC
0.17% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.17% Germany Index, EWG
0.16% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.16% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.16% India PS, PIN
0.15% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.15% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.14% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.14% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.13% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.13% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.13% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.13% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.13% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.13% Global 100, IOO
0.12% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.12% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.12% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.12% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.10% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.10% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.10% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.09% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.09% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.09% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.09% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.09% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.09% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.09% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.07% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.06% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.05% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.04% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.04% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.03% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.02% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.03% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.04% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.05% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.05% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.06% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.07% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.08% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.08% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.10% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.11% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.11% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.11% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.11% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.12% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.15% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.15% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.16% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.18% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.22% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.22% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.23% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.31% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.32% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.41% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.42% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.44% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.53% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.57% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.63% Spain Index, EWP
-0.90% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.75% Italy Index, EWI
