VIX Fear Index collapsed to 14.60 on 1/2/13 from 23.23 on 12/28/12. This indicates a rapid shift to bullish exuberance from worried concern.
The Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose above its 2012 highs, but the Dow-Jones Industrial Average remained below its 2012 highs, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.
Health Care stock sector ETF price turned systematically bullish when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
Consumer Staples stock sector ETF price turned systematically bullish when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
Technology stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) turned systematically neutral when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price turned systematically neutral when it rose above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
Utilities stock sector ETF price turned systematically neutral when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically neutral when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bullish again when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose above its highs of the previous 2 months.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,462.42) jumped 36.23 points or 2.54% on Wednesday, on news of a midnight political deal on the fiscal cliff. SPX whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 12/31/12, turning systematically bullish.
Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in December, matching extremes in September, 2012, when the stock price indexes topped out. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean.
The Art of Contrary Thinking calls for questioning popular optimism. I have been skeptical that SPX would be able to overcome technical resistance around its September-October highs. The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibit now and over the past several months. Long-term momentum has been showing bearish divergence and has weakened considerably since the S&P 500 price peak on 9/14/12. And the bull phase of the 4-year cycle is long in tooth. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1411.52, 50-day SMA
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1390.67, 200-day SMA
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 12/11/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 12/31/12. DBA turned systematically neutral on 11/30/12 when price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, although the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose above its highs of the previous 2 months on 1/2/13. USO turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose back above its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/20/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/20/12. SLV turned systematically neutral on 12/13/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support 28.65, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 30.03, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/20/12. SLV/GLD turned systematically neutral on 12/14/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.15% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1.84% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
2.51% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
4.36% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
3.19% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
1.46% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
5.54% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
4.12% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
12.03% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.11% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
2.58% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
6.71% , MET , METLIFE
2.80% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
5.70% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
8.55% , X , US STEEL CORP
7.20% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
2.08% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
5.10% , ASH , ASHLAND
0.55% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
2.94% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
3.63% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
2.77% , TIF , TIFFANY
6.38% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.32% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
3.97% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
4.43% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
2.74% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
4.96% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
5.83% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
5.49% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
5.33% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
3.05% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
2.75% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-51.07% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-5.10% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-2.33% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-5.89% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-1.82% , EMC , EMC
-0.67% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-1.79% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.63% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-3.09% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-2.08% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
-0.59% , TGT , TARGET
-0.68% , COH , COACH
-0.31% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-2.67% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-0.40% , VFC , VF
-0.72% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.09% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-4.60% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.47% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.34% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.28% , HUM , HUMANA
-0.28% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.13% , AET , AETNA
-0.06% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.02% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.12% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.36% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
4.26% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
4.17% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3.87% Networking, IGN
3.79% Biotech SPDR, XBI
3.46% China 25 iS, FXI
3.33% Technology SPDR, XLK
3.33% Microcap Russell, IWC
3.18% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
3.14% Technology DJ US, IYW
3.13% Financial DJ US, IYF
3.13% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
3.10% India Earnings WTree, EPI
3.08% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
3.03% Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.99% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.94% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
2.91% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
2.90% Financial SPDR, XLF
2.86% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
2.85% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
2.84% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
2.83% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.83% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
2.77% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
2.77% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.75% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
2.74% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
2.73% Financials VIPERs, VFH
2.72% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
2.68% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.67% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.67% India PS, PIN
2.67% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
2.64% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
2.61% Growth VIPERs, VUG
2.61% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
2.61% Russia MV, RSX
2.58% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.58% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
2.56% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
2.55% South Korea Index, EWY
2.55% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
2.55% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
2.54% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
2.54% MidCap Russell, IWR
2.51% Water Resources, PHO
2.50% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.50% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
2.48% Value VIPERs, VTV
2.47% Energy DJ, IYE
2.46% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
2.46% Japan Index, EWJ
2.44% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
2.44% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
2.44% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.44% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
2.44% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
2.40% Industrial SPDR, XLI
2.40% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
2.40% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
2.34% Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.33% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
2.32% Hong Kong Index, EWH
2.27% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
2.26% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.24% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
2.24% Dividend SPDR, SDY
2.23% Energy Global, IXC
2.21% Energy SPDR, XLE
2.19% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.12% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
2.10% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.09% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
2.09% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.06% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
2.04% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.00% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.98% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.97% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.97% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.90% Dividend International, PID
1.89% Mexico Index, EWW
1.87% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.87% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.87% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.86% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.83% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.82% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.82% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.81% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.77% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.75% Global 100, IOO
1.68% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.68% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.65% Canada Index, EWC
1.62% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.60% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.59% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.56% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.55% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.51% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.47% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.46% Singapore Index, EWS
1.45% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.41% Italy Index, EWI
1.39% Australia Index, EWA
1.35% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.34% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.26% Austria Index, EWO
1.26% Sweden Index, EWD
1.25% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.21% European VIPERs, VGK
1.17% Germany Index, EWG
1.12% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.11% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.11% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.05% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
1.04% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.94% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.83% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.79% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.76% Spain Index, EWP
0.75% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.71% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.66% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.55% France Index, EWQ
0.49% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.36% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.30% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.30% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.23% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.22% Belgium Index, EWK
0.18% South Africa Index, EZA
0.00% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.12% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.31% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.47% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.34% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.50% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
