COMMODITYTRADING SCHOOL
COMMODITY TRADING SCHOOL US FIXED INCOME REPORT 07/15/09
SUMMARY OF DATA 07/17/09
- 8:30 AM: US HOUSING STARTS (0.53M)
DATA RESULTS 07/16/09
US WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS: (522 K VS. 535 K), PHILADEPHIA FED SURVEY (-7.5 VS. -5.0), EIA NAT GAS (90 BCF), US HOUSING MARKET INDEX (17 VS. 15).
DEBT MARKETS RECOVER ON SHORT COVERING, SECURITY BIDS AMID CONCERNS CIT WILL DECLARE BANKRUPTCY, PHILLY FED POSTS WORSE THAN EXPECTED.
US FIXED INCOME markets rebounded from three sessions of downward pressure, as concerns regarding another high profile bankruptcy of a major financial institution and weak data regarding US manufacturing, prompted short covering by traders.
The markets took up some safe haven buying after it was reported that commercial lender CIT would not be provided with additional bailout money from the US Government. Aside from concerns regarding the fallout from another government forced bankruptcy (shades of Lehman anyone?), US debt products garnered support from strong buying out of China as the country took advantage of the highest yields in nearly a month. Overall the markets perceived today’s events as a sober reminder of the fragile state of the economic recovery outlook, despite the rebound in equity prices driven by positive reading on the US housing index and higher earnings from JP Morgan Chase. A jump in the VIX to its highest level in three weeks also supported the flight to secure debt.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK-US 30 YEARS- US 30 years rebounded from Wednesday’s lows amid a short covering rally, maintaining significant periods of the session near the retracement level resistance of 117-130 before retreating to 117-070 on the settlement. With this initial digestion, market should set up to range trade for the time being. Look for the market to retest support at 116-185, with resistance setting up at 117-190.
US 10 YEARS- US 10 year notes mirrored is higher yielding companion, retracing to near term resistance range of 117-080 to 117-110. Market began to pullback toward end of session and should try for a retest of initial support of 116-260, with 116-070 as strong indication that downward trend is continuing. Resistance should be found at 117-230.
EURODOLLARS- December Eurodollars followed suit and rebounded slightly above target resistance of 99.220. Look for the market to enter another tight trading range, offering opportunities to sell market before next breakdown target to 99.100.
|
US DEBT FUTURES |
OPEN |
HIGH |
LOW |
CHANGE |
|
|
US U9 (US 30 YRS) |
116-230 |
117-260 |
116-205 |
117-070 |
+12.5/32nds |
|
TY U9 (US 10 YRS) |
116-205 |
117-135 |
116-205 |
117-005 |
+10.0/32nds |
|
ED Z9 (EURO $) |
99.1750 |
99.235 |
99.160 |
99.210 |
+3.50 |
Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
EMAIL QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS TO RICH@BINVSTGRP.COM
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Whitehall Investment Management, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
