The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 100 Large Cap price index both closed above their closing price highs of the previous 2 years, thereby confirming major bullish trends.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,270.20) consolidated gains after rising above highs of the previous 2-years on 1/3/11, and thereby confirming the Dow Theory Bullish Primary Tide Trend.

Commodities (oil, gold, silver, copper, CRB index, etc.) pulled back in normal corrections but remain in bullish major trends.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.22% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
3.09% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
1.76% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
3.55% , CIEN.O , CIENA
4.56% , AA , ALCOA
0.85% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
4.13% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
3.38% , PWER , POWER ONE
0.71% , TMK , TORCHMARK
1.13% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.69% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.58% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
2.16% , AMGN , AMGEN
1.61% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
1.27% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
1.54% , SYY , SYSCO
1.18% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
1.39% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.54% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
1.57% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
1.81% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
0.24% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
1.60% , EL , Estee Lauder
0.52% , AET , AETNA
0.44% , MOT , MOTOROLA
1.24% , PPL , PPL
1.95% , RTN , RAYTHEON
1.01% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.86% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
1.24% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.72% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
1.74% , PFE , PFIZER
1.52% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.35% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-3.48% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-0.68% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-2.99% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-4.78% , FLR , FLUOR
-2.93% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-3.20% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-2.31% , UIS , UNISYS
-4.18% , COH , COACH
-3.78% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-2.48% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.54% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-3.98% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-2.98% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-3.63% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-0.89% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-2.53% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-2.92% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-3.58% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-5.22% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-3.37% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
-1.79% , OIH , Oil Services H, OIH
-3.74% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-2.36% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-3.29% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.87% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.26% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-1.45% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-0.68% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-2.58% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-1.47% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.41% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-2.91% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 14-month highs on 12/31/10 highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 69.95 and 78.10.

Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs on 12/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.15 and 41.06.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.29, 37.15, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.09, 40.13, and 40.70.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 36.16.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 12/16/10 and turned neutral for the secondary trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 1/4/11 and remains bullish. Support 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.69, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price turned bullish as of 12/22/10 when the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows on 1/4/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.10, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 30.29.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/3/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 8-month highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish.. Support 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 1/3/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 4-month lows on 12/28/10 and remains neutral.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 5-month lows on 11/30/10 and remains neutral.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio eased slightly below its 50-day SMA on 1/4/11, turning neutral technically. The ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/26/10, confirming a bullish Primary uptrend for the longer-term.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/4/11, turning neutral technically. The ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/27/10 and remains bullish.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 1/3/11, and remains bullish.

CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 2-week lows on 1/4/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Oil rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 87.43, 86.83, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 98.65 and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price fell below 5-day lows on 1/4/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Gold rose above previous all-time highs and confirmed a bullish major trend on 12/7/10. Support 1361.6, 1352.6, 1329.0, 1325.5, 1317.5, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been trending lower since making a top on 12/6/10.

Silver nearest futures contract price fell below 5-day lows on 1/4/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish major trend for the long term.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/31/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.

Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 2-day lows on 1/4/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Copper rose above multi-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.205, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price has turned choppy and still looks uncertain for the short term. The bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 121.20, 122.02, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 8-month highs on 12/28/10 and remains bullish. JNK absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 12/27/10, which is bullish for the short term. Price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish for the longer term.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has firmed up moderately since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising RS ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected Notes at a relatively more subdued pace compared to the U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Note (IEF) over the past 4 months.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price recovered a small fraction of its 2-week loss on Tuesday. USD fell below 5-week lows on 12/31/10, reconfirming a short-term downtrend. USD may have found resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands near chart resistance at 81.525 to 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.01, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.185, 81.525, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 55.6% Bulls versus 20.0% Bears as of 12/29/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.78, which is nearly two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. Bullish Sentiment tends to rise in November and December every year. The ratio was as high as it is now or higher in Decembers of each year 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, and none of these “high” readings led to bear markets. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.

VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.40 on 12/23/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 1/3/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,270.20) consolidated gains after rising above highs of the previous 2-years on 1/3/11, and thereby confirming the Dow Theory Bullish Primary Tide Trend.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1,276.17, high of 1/3/2011

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.07% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.82% Russia MV, RSX
1.69% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.26% China 25 iS, FXI
1.04% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.01% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.76% Networking, IGN
0.65% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.61% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.55% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.46% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.45% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.45% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.45% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.41% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.39% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.39% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.33% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.32% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.30% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.29% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.26% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.25% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.25% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.24% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.23% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.23% South Korea Index, EWY
0.20% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.20% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.19% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.19% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.18% Global 100, IOO
0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.17% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.16% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.14% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.13% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.13% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.13% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.12% Italy Index, EWI
0.12% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.07% Japan Index, EWJ
0.05% Mexico Index, EWW
0.04% France Index, EWQ
0.03% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.06% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.06% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.07% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.08% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.09% Energy Global, IXC
-0.10% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.12% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.12% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.14% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.14% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.15% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.16% Spain Index, EWP
-0.20% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.20% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.20% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.21% Germany Index, EWG
-0.24% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.26% Dividend International, PID
-0.27% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.29% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.30% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.30% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.30% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.30% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.31% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.34% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.36% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.37% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.43% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.45% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.46% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.48% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.48% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.51% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.54% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.55% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.56% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.60% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.61% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.61% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.67% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.70% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.74% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.74% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.74% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.75% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.75% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.76% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.78% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.79% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.84% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.86% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.90% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.95% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.99% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.02% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.02% Austria Index, EWO
-1.05% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.06% Canada Index, EWC
-1.06% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.16% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.17% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.21% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.24% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.25% Water Resources, PHO
-1.26% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.27% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.29% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.32% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.34% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.46% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.47% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.48% India PS, PIN
-1.48% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.56% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.57% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.59% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.65% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.78% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.83% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.87% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.88% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.91% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.94% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.01% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-2.36% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.48% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.58% Australia Index, EWA
-3.00% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.58% Chile MSCI iS, ECH