Highlights based on trading on Friday, May 25, 2012:
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 8 years.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 7 months and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,317.82) fell 2.86 points or 0.22% on Friday. SPX lost some of its previous extreme downside momentum last week, but it appears far from turning bullish.
NYSE volume fell 24% on Friday, reflecting early departures for the 3-day holiday weekend. U.S. markets are closed on Monday. Volume patterns remain weak, with a tendency toward lower volume on up days and higher volume on down days, indicating the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure. Note on the chart (available to subscribers) that NYSE Cumulative Up-Down Volume shows a bearish divergence: it is below its 200-day SMA, while the S&P 500 price index is still above its 200-day SMA.
The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months:
Switzerland Index, EWL
Singapore Index, EWS
Hong Kong Index, EWH
Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
Japan Index, EWJ
Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
Pacific VIPERs, VPL
Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
Taiwan Index, EWT
Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
Australia Index, EWA
Emerging VIPERs, VWO
Indonesia MV, IDX
China 25 iS, FXI
China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
Russia MV, RSX
Spain Index, EWP
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 120.60, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 105.85, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance none.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, JNK/LQD remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has been modestly above the 200-day SMA every day since 4/16/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing,, however, and a bearish crossover in days and weeks ahead appears probable, based on current trends.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned down after 3/19/12 and fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 3/14/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 5/25/12. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 5/23/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 5/23/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/23/12. USO still looks bearish on the chart. Systematically, USO remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 33.66, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 155.57, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose modestly above its 50-day SMA on 5/23/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. Absolute price remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.60, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV/GLD remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/23/12. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
11.41% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
0.97% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
0.49% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.76% , PMR , Retail, PMR
2.08% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
4.59% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
3.56% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
2.99% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
0.54% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
3.23% , PWER , POWER ONE
2.90% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
4.81% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
0.46% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
0.15% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
0.38% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
2.82% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.67% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.97% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
4.34% , BIG , BIG LOTS
1.69% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
0.79% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
1.35% , AZO , AUTOZONE
1.99% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.86% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
1.01% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.80% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
1.44% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
0.73% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
0.90% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
1.73% , SLE , SARA LEE
3.32% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.75% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
0.52% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.82% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-7.69% , MDP , MEREDITH
-2.01% , GOOG , Google
-2.14% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.95% , BA , BOEING
-0.71% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-0.45% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-1.09% , CTAS , CINTAS
-0.47% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.41% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-2.42% , PLL , PALL
-0.42% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.43% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.69% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.45% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.55% , UIS , UNISYS
-1.34% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-0.03% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-1.31% , CMI , CUMMINS
-0.93% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-0.21% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-0.15% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.37% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-0.94% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
-0.29% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-0.29% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-1.18% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.15% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.22% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.55% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-0.50% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.21% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-1.50% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.99% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.16% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.00% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.84% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.83% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.66% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.62% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.50% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.47% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.44% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.44% Networking, IGN
0.43% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.42% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.37% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.37% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.35% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.34% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.33% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.29% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.27% Belgium Index, EWK
0.26% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.25% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.21% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.21% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.21% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.19% India PS, PIN
0.15% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.14% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.13% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.09% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.08% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.07% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.07% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.06% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% Germany Index, EWG
0.05% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.05% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.03% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.01% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.00% Energy Global, IXC
0.00% France Index, EWQ
0.00% Italy Index, EWI
0.00% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.00% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.02% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.02% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.03% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.03% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.03% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.03% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.06% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.07% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.07% Dividend International, PID
-0.09% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.10% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.11% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.12% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.12% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.12% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.13% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.13% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.15% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.15% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.15% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.16% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.16% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.17% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.17% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.17% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.17% Spain Index, EWP
-0.18% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.19% Global 100, IOO
-0.19% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.21% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.21% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.21% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.21% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.22% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.22% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.22% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.23% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.24% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.24% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.24% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.25% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.25% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.25% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.25% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.26% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.27% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.27% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.28% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.29% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.29% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.29% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.30% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.31% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.32% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.32% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.32% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.32% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.32% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.33% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.34% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.35% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.35% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.36% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.40% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.41% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.42% Austria Index, EWO
-0.42% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.43% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.44% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.44% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.45% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.47% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.47% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.47% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.47% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.48% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.49% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.49% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.50% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.52% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.55% Canada Index, EWC
-0.56% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.59% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.60% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.62% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.68% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.69% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.72% Water Resources, PHO
-1.01% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.03% Russia MV, RSX
-1.18% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.30% Australia Index, EWA
-5.82% Indonesia MV, IDX
