Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell down below its 50-day SMA on 12/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Energy (XLE) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 17 months on 12/9/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.
Utilities (XLU) stock sector ETF absolute price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 12/9/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 4 months on 12/9/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,808.37, up 0.18%) absolute price gapped upward on the open on Monday and worked higher in the first half hour before turning choppy. The S&P 500 closed slightly below the open and slightly below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume fell 1% to a level 13% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE was nearly unchanged on Monday. The Advance-Decline Line has turned relatively weak: it fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on Thursday, 12/5/13. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below its lows of the previous 3 weeks on 12/5/13. Although both Lines are currently systematically bullish (that is, above their 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200), both have remained below their highs of September-October, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the large-capitalization stock price indexes, which made higher highs in late November.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 continue to lag. Both fell below their lows of the previous 6 weeks on 12/5/13. These oscillators have been trending lower after stalling out below their October highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs in November. Previously, both remained stubbornly and bearishly divergent below first half 2013 highs as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs in July, August, September, and October.
Momentum divergences, breadth divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/27/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 14 months on 12/5/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 4 months on 12/9/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/2/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 11/29/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell down below its 50-day SMA on 12/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below its 200-day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/5/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 11/27/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The price 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 12/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 32.94, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.68, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/6/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. Price fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/4/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.65% , SYY , SYSCO
3.90% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
3.63% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
2.31% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
3.10% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
2.81% , ITT , ITT INDS
3.20% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
2.20% , DE , DEERE & CO
1.34% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
2.44% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
1.77% , BC , BRUNSWICK
2.42% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
0.37% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.62% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
0.60% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.62% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
0.46% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.38% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.86% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
0.90% , QLGC , QLOGIC
1.50% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
0.87% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
0.91% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
0.20% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.13% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
0.61% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.46% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
1.44% , PKI , PERKINELMER
0.39% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
1.21% , AET , AETNA
2.05% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
0.46% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
0.18% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.33% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-2.25% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.76% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-1.72% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-1.62% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
-1.97% , LB , L Brands, LB
-0.36% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.49% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-1.71% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-1.07% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-0.40% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.41% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-0.50% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-0.28% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.21% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-0.94% , SO , SOUTHERN
-0.35% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.37% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-1.33% , EMC , EMC
-0.10% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-0.21% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.58% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-0.14% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-8.33% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.41% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-0.53% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-1.19% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-0.43% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-1.98% , AEE , AMEREN
-1.29% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-0.52% , ED , CON ED
-0.37% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-0.61% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.23% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.92% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.23% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.99% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.85% , Spain Index, EWP
0.81% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.78% , Russia MV, RSX
0.68% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.68% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.66% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.65% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.62% , Austria Index, EWO
0.61% , Italy Index, EWI
0.60% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.57% , India PS, PIN
0.57% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.54% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.52% , Canada Index, EWC
0.52% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.50% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.49% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.45% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.42% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.42% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.41% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.40% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.39% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.38% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.38% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.37% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.37% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.37% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.36% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.35% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.35% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.34% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.33% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.32% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.32% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.29% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.28% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.28% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.26% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.26% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.25% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.24% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.23% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.23% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.23% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.23% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.22% , Dividend International, PID
0.22% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.22% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.20% , Water Resources, PHO
0.20% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.20% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.20% , Global 100, IOO
0.19% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.19% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.19% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.18% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.18% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.18% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.18% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.17% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.17% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.17% , Germany Index, EWG
0.16% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.16% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.16% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.15% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.14% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.14% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.14% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.14% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.12% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.12% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.11% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.11% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.10% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.09% , Energy Global, IXC
0.08% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.08% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.07% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.07% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.06% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.06% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.04% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.04% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.04% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.04% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.04% , France Index, EWQ
0.03% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.03% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.01% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.00% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.02% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.03% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.04% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.05% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.06% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.07% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.07% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.07% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.08% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.08% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.11% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.11% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.13% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.14% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.14% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.15% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.15% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.17% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.19% , Networking, IGN
-0.27% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.28% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.28% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.29% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.32% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.35% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.36% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.40% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.44% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.48% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.51% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.60% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.64% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.65% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.67% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.73% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.73% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.95% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.37% , Australia Index, EWA
-2.25% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1783.38, low of 12/05/2013
1777.23, low of 11/20/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1754.01, 50-day SMA
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1658.63, 200-day SMA
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
