Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/7/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/7/14, thereby suggesting a significant downtrend.
Consumer Discretionary stock sector ETF (XLY) Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous year on 5/7/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,878.21, up 0.56%) absolute price opened higher but quickly turned choppy. An afternoon rally lifted the SPX to its highest level of the day by the close. SPX closed above both the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. Although the SPX demonstrated resilience by recovering most of the previous day’s loss, the SPX has stalled over the past 2 months, and so the short-term trend looks uncertain.
NYSE total volume rose 9% to a level 9% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 208 from 157 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to price. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears to be deteriorating technically. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell to its lowest level in more than 2 years on 5/6/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose to its highest level in 18 months on 4/29/14 and remains systematically bullish. DBA price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price has stabilized since June and could be forming a base. Currently, the price trend remains systematically neutral. Support: 122.84, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since GDX absolute price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/1/14. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.16, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/7/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
21.03% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
4.09% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
1.65% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
4.53% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
3.65% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
8.43% , HUM , HUMANA
2.49% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
0.09% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.77% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
2.89% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.87% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
1.56% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
2.49% , CR , CRANE
2.24% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
1.90% , DE , DEERE & CO
0.05% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
2.14% , WMB , WILLIAMS
1.15% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.86% , IWD , Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.92% , RTN , RAYTHEON
0.58% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
0.71% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
1.48% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
1.17% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
2.90% , MBI , MBIA
1.68% , PEP , PEPSICO
1.93% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
3.52% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
2.62% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
7.79% , JCP , JC PENNEY
1.83% , BLL , BALL
3.23% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
1.44% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-18.81% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-6.63% , YHOO , YAHOO
-4.11% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-4.16% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-4.95% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-3.66% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-4.43% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-1.32% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
-1.13% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-1.44% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.85% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-1.22% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.85% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-3.21% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.22% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-1.36% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-1.01% , GOOG , Google
-1.54% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.57% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-0.82% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-0.15% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-0.34% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.79% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-1.26% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-0.86% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.37% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.41% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.72% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-0.75% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
-0.10% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.41% , COH , COACH
-0.12% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-0.33% , PX , PRAXAIR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.53% , Russia MV, RSX
1.62% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.58% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.34% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.31% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.30% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.24% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.23% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.20% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.20% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.17% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.17% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.15% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.15% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.13% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.12% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.09% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.03% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.99% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.98% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.98% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.97% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.96% , Energy Global, IXC
0.96% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.96% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.94% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.93% , Germany Index, EWG
0.93% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.90% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.87% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.87% , France Index, EWQ
0.87% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.86% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.86% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.86% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.85% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.82% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.80% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.79% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.79% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.78% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.78% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.75% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.74% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.71% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.71% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.67% , Dividend International, PID
0.66% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.63% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.63% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.61% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.59% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.59% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.59% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.58% , Water Resources, PHO
0.58% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.55% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.55% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.53% , Global 100, IOO
0.53% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.49% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.48% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.47% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.47% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.47% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.45% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.44% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.40% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.39% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.36% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.33% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.31% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.31% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.30% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.29% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.29% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.28% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.28% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.28% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.27% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.22% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.20% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.19% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.16% , Canada Index, EWC
0.16% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.15% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.14% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.13% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.12% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.10% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.09% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.08% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.08% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.07% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.06% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.06% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.06% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.05% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.04% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.02% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.05% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.08% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.08% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.09% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.10% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.12% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.13% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.15% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.15% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.19% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.21% , Networking, IGN
-0.29% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.29% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.32% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.34% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.34% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.36% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.36% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.41% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.42% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.43% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.44% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.44% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.45% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.53% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.55% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.57% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.68% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.80% , India PS, PIN
-0.96% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.22% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.36% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.44% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.34% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.21% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1890.90, close of 4/2/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1864.76, 50-day SMA
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1779.85, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
