Monday, December 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. Treasury prices, weaker U.S. stock index futures prices and sharply lower crude oil prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I get a lot of queries from traders worldwide asking me if I am related to the legendary trader of the early 20th century, Richard D. Wyckoff. No, I’m not related to Richard, but I always tell folks that my last name is a great one to have in my industry. I do follow the same trading principles as Richard Wyckoff. If you’d like to read about Richard D. Wyckoff’s proven trading methods, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll attach and send the story back to you.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today. After five straight winning sessions, the stock index bulls have become exhausted and a corrective pullback is due.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 870.10 and then at 850.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 897.50 and then at 917.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 874.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 888.80
1st Support:——– 881.60
2nd Support:——– 867.90
1st Resistance:—– 902.50
2nd Resistance:—– 909.70
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,125.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,186.00 and then at 1,200.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,161.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,184.75
1st Support:—— 1,171.25
2nd Support:—— 1,156.50
1st Resistance:— 1,199.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,213.00
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,600 and then more stops just below support at 8,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,720 and then just above resistance at 8,800. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,776
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,767
1st Support:—— 8,714
2nd Support:—— 8,607
1st Resistance:— 8,874
2nd Resistance:— 8,927
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are solidly higher in early trading today. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid continued moves to the safest-haven investment vehicles in the world.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh contract high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128 even and then at the overnight low of 127 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 128 26/32 and then at 129 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 125 29/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 126 21/32
1st Support:—– 125 13/32 2nd Support:—– 125 11/32
1st Resistance:– 126 23/32
2nd Resistance:– 125 11/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh contract high overnight. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 121.24.5 and then at 122.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 121.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 120.25.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119.28.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 120 21/32
1st Support:—– 120 5/32 2nd Support:—– 119 11/32
1st Resistance:– 121 15/32
2nd Resistance:– 121 31/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.60 and then at 88.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.07 and then at 86.75. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.99. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2600 and then just below support at 1.2550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2700 and then at 1.2750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2655. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is sharply lower in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $800.00 and then at $810.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $790.00 and then at $780.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $781.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are sharply lower early today. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $52.50 and then just above resistance at $53.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $51.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $50.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $53.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are bearish early today–crude oil prices are sharply lower and the U.S. dollar is firmer. U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Trading has turned choppy in the grains, and within trading ranges. Such may be the case during the month of December, too. Bears continue to have the overall near-term technical advantage.
