Thursday started the day with a gap up and as the day progressed the losses mounted. The market did attempt to reverse but the bounce was sold into as the day came to an end. Which left the indexes red and on higher volume. As July comes to an end the volume did pick up and that left us with a distribution day. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.31 and the VIX at 24.13. Gold closed up $8.00 to $1168.40 an ounce and oil closed up $1.37 to $78.36 a barrel.
As we come into Friday we’ll have a lot of economic data through the morning. That will provide volatility. It is also the last day of the month. That should bring in a lot of volume and even more of the tug of war to keep the market on the highs. Right now July sits very near the highs of June for an engulfing candle off last months drop. Holding these gains will be key to see a decent month of gains booked.
The Nas composite needs to hold over 2213.45, NDX 1823.71, SPX 1078.91 and the Dow has 10408.87 200dma and 10214.20 support. Those are key levels for this market to hold or we’ll see a much deeper drop. Futures did test the daily pivot on Thursday and the NQ did get to the weekly pivot. The ES and TF did not test the weekly but they are very close to those 1084.5 and 633.90 levels. The ES has 1093 support if that doesn’t hold 1077.75 is likely to test. Back over 1111.50 we can look for new highs on the week. The NQ has 1854.25 and onto 1827 support. Back over 1875.75 and onto 1886 will lead to new highs on the week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advance GDP Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle sales all day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market CVX, CVH, FO, ITT, MRK, GAS, UPL, WY and nothing after the bell
TF (Russell 2000 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 648.10, weekly pivot 633.90. Support: 646.10, 644.20, 642.80, 641.50, 640.70, 638.10, 635.70, 627.20. Resistance: 651.10, 656, 659, 661.90, 664.10, 666.10, 671.50, 672.20.
