Monday started the week with a nice upside moving, advancing the NDX and Nas Composite into new highs for the year. The SPX is still about 5 points off the 2009 highs and the Dow 100 points. The volume was anemic today, well below average volume as expected. Holiday weeks are usually light and this week will be no exception. Also keep in mind this was a Monday following quadruple witching, it is very normal to be slow following that expiration. The TRIN closed at .57 bullish on the day and the VIX at 20.49 which is about 6.5% off the 10dma. Leaving us a little room to drop before we look for a snapback into 10%. Gold closed down $15.50 to $1104.25 and oil off 71 cents to $73.71 a barrel.
Daily chart on the Nas 100 and Nas Composite sit into the upper Bollinger band, RSI at at 62, CCI over 200 and Stochastics vacillating at 70. Leaving the two indexes in questionable territory for a further advance before digesting this upside move. The SPX is into the upper Bollinger, but no other indicators are into overbought territory or resistance. The Dow has room before piercing the upper Bollinger and has the CCI coming into 0 line resistance, RSI at 55, stochastics still pointed down with the MACD. Financials participated with a nice upside push today and tech hung in there to be led by the semi’s for the biggest percentage advance on the day.
Coming into Tuesday keep in mind volatility was missing after the gap and higher move on Monday. I don’t expect that to continue into Tuesday. Some movement should come in off the data releases and also expand to a bigger range than we had on Monday. Without volume confirming the break out on the Nasdaq isn’t happening, so that leaves ANYTHING that happens this week to be suspect. That is normal for holiday weeks and it all corrects itself once we work through the holidays. Which means we discount confirmation for now, just because that is a seasonal impact on the market and the upside bias is also a seasonal bias.
Tuesday we look for some pullback, not another gap and go type start on the day. Even if we get a strong opening, I don’t think the full gap will hold up again. Although I said we discount the lacking volume keep in mind it also takes buyers to advance us, so if that disappears we will see some fade come in.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, early close 1:15. Friday US markets closed.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market PRGS and after the bell FINL, MU, RHT, TIBX. Wednesday pre market AM and nothing after the bell. Thursday nothing pre market and CRI after the bell. Friday US markets are closed.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +25.97 at 2237.66. Support: 2217.71-2211.69 fills gap, 2193.24, 2156.56 50dma-2145.52, 2099.21. Resistance: 2242.22 2009 highs, 2251.84 61.8%-2256.30, 2295.04, 2313.05.
