Monday ended the day on a split note, the Nasdaq 100 and Nas Composite closed green and the S&P 500 and Dow closed red. All indexes were very flat by days end, but it was just enough to tip the scale in split fashion. The volume fell off on the NYSE and Nasdaq today to come in lower than Friday’s. Futures volume was split with the ES and TF lower and NQ higher on the day than Friday. The VIX closed the day at 23.98 and the TRIN at .78 bullish on the day. Gold closed down $5.40 at $1004.90 and oil down $2.33 at $69.71 a barrel.
Monday opened weak and the reluctant dip buyers came in slowly again. The volume still bothers me on this dip buying and if something could melt up, that is what it is doing. Obviously nothing can melt up, but certainly feels like a slow melt with the pace and lack of conviction we are seeing. Some of that is hang over from expiration on Friday and some of it is apprehension ahead of the two day Fed meeting that starts Tuesday. So hang in there and be selective on setups.
Daily with the split we had between the green Nasdaq and then SPX and Dow red, isn’t that unusual. However, what isn’t split is indicators on the daily charts. Stochastics turned down, CCI dropped, RSI slight drop and the MACD lines are narrowing on all the indexes. That means we have divergence on the daily NDX and COMPX with indicators dropping and price rising. The NDX and COMPX had new intraday and new closing highs on the year. SPX and Dow did not follow the leader and come along, banks and oil held the indexes off those highs. Beside that little red flag we have nothing to focus on tonight. The 65 minute charts on each index are FLAT, no hint at all for us. Technically the market is not overbought and yes we would like a correction, but with month end around the corner and Fed this week, that maybe slow to come.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Day 1 G20 meeting. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, Day 2 G20 meeting.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market KMX, CCL, FDS and after the bell AIR. Wednesday pre market AZO, GIS, and after the bell BBBY, PAYX, RHT. Thursday pre market AM, RAD, SCS, TXI and after the bell COMS, FINL, RIMM. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +6.34 at 1731.58. Support: 1711.36, 1696.76, 1678.49, 1643.38. Resistance: 1750.29, 1781.28 61.8% weekly.
