Friday closed the day and the summer trading, which we are happy to see end. The broader markets were green across the board with lighter volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures were higher on the day for volume and price. Gold closed down .70 at $997 and oil up 1 cent to $67.97 a barrel.. The TRIN remained flat throughout most of the day closing at .64 and the VIX at 25.26.
The indexes hit new highs on the year August 28th, the Dow was on the 25th. This past week traded under that level and closed just off the weeks highs. Leaving us real neutral to kick off the fall trading. Summer, particularly this past three week was very trying and range bound. I’m glad to see it behind us and to see what September brings. A lot of the speculation on September being a hard month on the markets, but we aren’t going to get caught up in that hype. A correction would be healthy and is still likely to come. Friday left us still setting over 38.2% supports and not far off the 50dma’s. The 38.2% support on the leg up off the July 8ths lows are: Dow 9034.47, COMPX 1932.49, 1563.67 NDX, and SPX 974.47. The 50dma’s are also nearing as we pullback and the 8/17 swing lows.
Tuesday the opening is likely to be slow, that Labor Day hang over. Friday and the shortened globex session on Monday advanced the market which is very questionable. Moves like this is very suspect leading into three day weekends. So don’t get quick on the trigger until we see the opening and any correction on this advance. Watch for the Nasdaq Composite into 2063.52, Nas 100 into 1639.82, S&P 500 1048 and 1121.44, and the Dow 9794 and onto 10334. That will be the key level overhead, a break out of last weeks range for either the bulls or bears is likely to tip our hand. I don’t want to focus on a corrective move, because the upside has been a strong trend. Trend correct and given the range we’ve stay in for the past three weeks the market is ready to expand. September will change the range and rotate the market into higher levels or let us see the correction, that will bring even more uncertainty. The panic sell button has been in storage, so nothing wants to tip that hand. Watch for the 38.2% levels under us and the years highs and onto the levels I outlined to help the market break the range into next week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday US Markets are closed for holiday, Tuesday 3:00 Consumer Credit, Wednesday 8:00 FOMC Member Evans Speaks, 2:00 Beige Book, Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Friday 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday US markets closed, Tuesday pre market TUTR and after the bell SEAC, TTWO, PAY. Wednesday pre market JOYG and after the bell HOV, MATK.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +35.58 at 2018.78. Support: 1957.43, 1932.49 38.2%- 1932.39 50dma, 1893.26. Resistance: 2020.73, 2037.77, 2063.52 50% on weekly
Thursday pre market CIEN, MOV and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
