by Robert W. Colby, Senior Analyst,

Stock Market: Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Trend confirmed again on Monday.

Both the Dow-Jones Industrials and Transports closed below their previous lowest closing prices of 2006-2008.

VIX and VXN again jumped to new highs, indicating very substantial and intensifying fear.

Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Lines for the NYSE and for the NASDAQ both fell to new 2-year lows, reconfirming that the major breadth trends remain Bearish.

The market has been and remains “oversold” by normal standards. But these are not normal times.

This appears to be one of those times when the only thing that matters is the Primary Tide Trend.

Focus on capital preservation.

On Monday, major stock price indexes gapped down on the open but soon recovered. Prices peaked on the plus side at 1:40 p.m., then gradually gave up all their gains over the next 2 hours. A sharp collapse in the final 20 minutes broke the low of the day. Stocks closed with substantial losses near their lowest levels of the day. The Standard & Poor’s 500 cash index (848.92) closed down 27.85 points, or 3.18%, at another new 5-year closing price low. Total NYSE volume fell 15%, suggesting less interest in trading.

CATS remains out, on the sidelines. CATS covered short but did not buy long at the open on 10/22/08. CATS Simulated Cumulative Equity soared by 81% to new all-time highs from 9/8/08 to 10/22/08, assuming 50% margin and zero transaction costs. CATS is the Colby Algorithmic Timing System. (Click here for a graph of simulated performance.)

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

35.33% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
30.27% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.23% , PHW , Hardware & Electronics, PHW
3.90% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
11.13% , TXT , TEXTRON
7.20% , ZION , ZIONS
2.51% , BDK , BLACK & DECKER
0.66% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
0.30% , ELG , Growth Large Cap, ELG
4.53% , TLAB , TELLABS
0.60% , ACV , Alberto-Culver Co.
0.80% , SYK , STRYKER
1.34% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
0.85% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
0.80% , MOT , MOTOROLA
5.00% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.67% , ALTR , ALTERA
0.18% , AZO , AUTOZONE
0.14% , RTN , RAYTHEON
0.07% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-2.46% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-6.59% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-18.08% , L , LOEWS
-15.08% , HUM , HUMANA
-4.95% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.67% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-11.28% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-5.01% , ELV , Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
-10.12% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-4.83% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-13.16% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-12.06% , CVS , CVS
-4.03% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-5.24% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-4.16% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-13.01% , CI , CIGNA
-7.14% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-8.74% , COH , COACH
-12.62% , IVGN , Invitrogen Corporation
-4.10% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-13.15% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-2.77% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-8.99% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-6.21% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-5.90% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-5.63% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-5.21% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.09% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-3.95% , VO , MidCap VIPERs, VO
-7.04% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-5.81% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-6.07% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-3.23% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.55% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-4.63% , MDP , MEREDITH

Sectors: among the 9 major U.S. sectors, all 9 fell.
Major Sectors Ranked for the Day
% Price Change, Sector ETF, Symbol

-1.49% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-2.06% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.54% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-2.73% Financial SPDR, XLF
-3.85% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-3.90% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-4.28% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-6.39% Energy SPDR, XLE
-7.42% Materials SPDR, XLB

Primary Tide Trends for the 9 major sectors last for years. Here are my up-to-date Relative Strength Rankings, as measured with emphasis on these long-term Primary Tide Trends (listed in order of long-term relative strength):

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. On 10/10/08, XLP/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 5-year high, but XLP absolute price fell to a new 2-year low. XLP is the best of a bad lot.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. On 10/24/08, XLV/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 4-year high. But on 10/10/08, XLV absolute price fell to a new 5-year low.

Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Underweight. On 10/10/08, the XLU absolute price fell to another new 2-year low.

Technology (XLK) Bearish, Underweight. On 10/24/08, the XLK absolute price fell to a new 5-year low.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bearish, Underweight. On 10/24/08, XLY absolute price fell to its lowest level in 5 years.

Industrial (XLI) Bearish, Underweight. On 10/24/08, the XLI absolute price fell to a new 5-year low.

Energy (XLE) Bearish, Underweight. On 10/10/08, the XLE absolute price hit another new 18-month intraday low.

Materials (XLB) Bearish, Underweight. On 10/27/08, the XLB absolute price fell to a new 5-year low.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Underweight. On 10/10/08, the XLF absolute price hit another new 10-year low. The XLF long-term trend of relative strength has been trending down since 2/20/07.

Foreign stock index EFA Relative Strength Ratio has sharply underperformed the S&P 500 since 11/27/07. EFA absolute price fell to a new 5-year low on 10/27/08 and has been in a falling trend since 10/31/07. EFA is the ETF representing the EAFE, the international developed country stock markets, ex the U.S. and Canada.

NASDAQ Composite remains Bearish. On 10/24/08, the absolute price made another new 5-year low, reconfirming long-term trend weakness.

NASDAQ 100 Index the intraday price hit a new 5-year low on 10/24/08.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio has been trending down since it peaked on 7/15/08.

The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio has been trending down since it peaked on 9/19/08.

Crude Oil futures December contract price fell to another new 16-month low, confirming its downtrend. On 10/24/08, oil fell to a new low of 62.65 intraday. The short-term and intermediate-term trends remain Bearish. U.S. OIL FUND ETF (AMEX: USO) is not a pure play on Crude Oil, although it generally moves in the same direction.

The Energy stock sector has underperformed Crude Oil since 5/30/07.

Gold futures contract price recovered moderately on Friday and Monday. Gold appears uncertain short-term but remains in an intermediate-term downtrend since the peak of 1033.90 on 3/17/08.

Gold Mining stocks continue to underperform Gold futures on a major trend basis.

U.S. Treasury Bond futures contract price recovered a normal fraction of Friday’s loss. Bonds appear uncertain both for the short term and possibly the intermediate-term. Long term, Bonds have been in a neutral sideways trend since June 2003.

iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond (LQD) ETF absolute price and LQD/TLT Relative Strength Ratio both fell to multi-year new lows on 10/10/08. Bond investors appear to be seriously concerned about the economic outlook.

iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (TIP) ETF Relative Strength suggests deflation. The TIP/TLT Relative Strength ratio has been in a persistent downtrend since 7/3/08.

The U.S. dollar is still in an uptrend. It made another new 24-month high on 10/27/08. Most trends remain Bullish, except perhaps for the secular, which is more than one major cycle.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: Traders need to be extremely nimble to keep up with rapid changes in the mass mood. The business and financial news has flipped from fear to hope and back again this year, creating record high levels of volatility. Investors might be wise to focus on risk control.

Sentiment/Contrary Opinion: There were 22.2% Bulls versus 54.4% Bears as of 10/22/2008, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio was 0.41, down from 0.42 the previous week. This is an extreme level of pessimism. The ratio’s 38-year range is 0.28 to 17.51, and the median is 1.47. Contrary Opinion must be tempered with other timing tools, of course.

VIX Fear Index, now at 80.06, jumped up to a new 18-year high. The 18-year low was 9.89 on 1/24/07. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index, now at 79.16, jumped up to a new 7-year high. The record high was 114.23 on 10/8/98. The record low was 12.61 on 7/29/05. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio is 0.79, which indicates Bearish sentiment. Its 4-year mean and median are 0.62, and its 4-year range is 0.35 to 1.28.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio is 1.24, which indicates Bearish sentiment. The ratio’s 4-year mean is 1.50, 4-year median is 1.47, and 4-year range is 0.51 to 3.16.

Fundamentals: The 2003-2007 Bull Market was fed by abundant global liquidly, M&A, leveraged buyouts, corporate stock buybacks, and the net balance of positive earnings surprises. The unfolding fallout from the subprime credit market crisis has derailed that engine. Economic statistics and corporate earnings have weakened and seem likely to weaken further over the next several months.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bear Market on 10/27/08, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their previous lowest closing prices of 2006-2008. These two Averages originally signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both closed below their closing price lows of August, 2007.

Shock and Fear. There is nothing new under the sun. The Dow Theory described this type of market many decades ago. From my book, The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators , Second Edition : “The second Bear phase is marked by a sudden mood change, from optimism and hope to shock and fear. One day, the public wakes up and sees, much to its surprise, that “the emperor has no clothes”. Actual fundamental business conditions are not panning out to be as positive as previously hoped. In fact, there may be a little problem. The smart money is long gone, and there is no one left to buy when the public wants out. Stock prices drop steeply in a vacuum. Fear quickly replaces greed. Repeated waves of panic may sweep the market. Transactional volume swells as the unsophisticated investor screams, “Get me out at any price!” Sharp professional traders are willing to bid way down in price for stocks when prices drop too far too fast. The best that can be expected, however, is a dead-cat bounce that recovers only a fraction of the steep loss.”

The breadth of the market has been in a Bearish trend long term since June 2007. The number of New Lows has exceeded the number of New Highs most days for more than a year, since July 2007, and that is one sign of a Bear Market. On 10/27/08, the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Lines for the NYSE and for the NASDAQ both fell to new 2-year lows, reconfirming that the major breadth trends remain Bearish.

To discover the next Resistance, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the Standard & Poor’s 500 cash index (848.92):

Potential Resistance
1,576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1,552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1,523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1,498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1,440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1,406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1,366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1,335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1,313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1,274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1,255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1,220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1,077.08, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2002-2007 upmove
1,044.91, high of 10/14/2008
985.44, high of 10/20/2008
970.50, Gann 75.0% of 2002-2007 upmove
941.43, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2002-2007 upmove

To discover the next Support, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the S&P 500 cash index (848.92):

Potential Support
839.80, low of 10/10/2008
768.63, low of 10/10/2002

Daily Rankings of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

9.60% Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
5.79% Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
5.59% Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
5.00% Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
4.34% Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
3.33% Internet B2B H, BHH
3.00% Short 100% S&P 500, SH
2.41% Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
2.17% Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.47% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.37% Networking, PXQ
0.66% Telecom H, TTH
0.30% Growth Large Cap, ELG
0.23% Hardware & Electronics, PHW
0.20% Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.08% Software, PSJ
0.07% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.00% Dividend Growth PS, PHJ
-0.04% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.14% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.20% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.22% Internet Architecture H, IAH
-0.25% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.26% Global Titans, DGT
-0.38% Semiconductor H, SMH
-0.39% Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
-0.39% Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-0.54% Technology Global, IXN
-0.55% Growth S&P 500, RPG
-0.65% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.74% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.81% OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-1.00% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-1.06% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-1.49% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.55% Germany Index, EWG
-1.73% Pharmaceutical H, PPH
-1.74% Retail, PMR
-1.75% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.81% Semiconductors, PSI
-1.91% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.91% Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.94% Retail H, RTH
-2.03% Bank Regional H, RKH
-2.06% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.09% Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
-2.13% Networking, IGN
-2.18% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.21% Food & Beverage, PBJ
-2.25% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-2.27% Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-2.30% Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-2.34% Value S&P 500, RPV
-2.35% Internet H, HHH
-2.35% Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-2.37% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.39% Building & Construction, PKB
-2.43% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.46% Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-2.51% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-2.54% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-2.57% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.60% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.61% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.62% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.67% Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-2.69% Biotech H, BBH
-2.69% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.71% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-2.73% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.74% Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-2.77% Broadband H, BDH
-2.78% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-2.82% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-2.84% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.84% Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-2.86% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.87% Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-2.92% Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
-2.94% Healthcare Global, IXJ
-2.94% Technology GS, IGM
-2.96% Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-3.02% Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-3.04% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-3.04% Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-3.07% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.09% Malaysia Index, EWM
-3.13% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-3.17% Brazil Index, EWZ
-3.19% Value VIPERs, VTV
-3.19% Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-3.20% LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-3.23% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-3.24% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-3.25% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-3.28% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-3.30% Global 100, IOO
-3.35% Utilities, PUI
-3.35% Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-3.35% Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-3.47% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-3.47% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-3.49% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-3.52% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-3.53% LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-3.55% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-3.55% Singapore Index, EWS
-3.56% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-3.57% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-3.58% Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-3.60% Healthcare DJ, IYH
-3.60% Software H, SWH
-3.61% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-3.61% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-3.61% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-3.68% Software, IGV
-3.71% Technology MS sT, MTK
-3.74% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.75% Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-3.76% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-3.79% Utilities DJ, IDU
-3.80% Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-3.81% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-3.82% IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-3.83% South Africa Index, EZA
-3.83% Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-3.85% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-3.90% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-3.91% Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-3.95% MidCap VIPERs, VO
-3.98% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-4.03% Telecommunications Global, IXP
-4.05% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-4.06% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-4.07% Dividend Leaders, FDL
-4.08% Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-4.08% Australia Index, EWA
-4.10% Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-4.13% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-4.15% Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-4.16% LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-4.16% MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-4.20% Financial DJ US, IYF
-4.20% Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-4.28% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-4.29% LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-4.31% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-4.32% LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-4.34% MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-4.35% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-4.38% Nanotech Lux, PXN
-4.39% LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-4.42% MidCap Russell, IWR
-4.43% Microcap Russell, IWC
-4.44% Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
-4.44% Water Resources, PHO
-4.46% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-4.51% Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-4.52% Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-4.62% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-4.63% Insurance, PIC
-4.65% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-4.66% Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-4.69% Switzerland Index, EWL
-4.75% SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-4.83% Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-4.89% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-4.89% LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-4.90% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-4.95% Italy Index, EWI
-5.01% Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
-5.01% European VIPERs, VGK
-5.02% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-5.03% Materials VIPERs, VAW
-5.06% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-5.13% Dividend International, PID
-5.14% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-5.16% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-5.17% Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-5.21% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-5.21% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-5.21% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-5.24% Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-5.25% EAFE Index, EFA
-5.26% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-5.26% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-5.27% Utilities H, UTH
-5.30% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-5.36% Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
-5.43% Oil Services H, OIH
-5.49% Oil & Gas, PXJ
-5.63% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-5.66% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-5.67% Belgium Index, EWK
-5.79% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-5.81% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-5.84% Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
-5.87% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-5.90% Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-6.02% Japan Index, EWJ
-6.07% SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-6.21% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-6.23% Energy DJ, IYE
-6.25% Netherlands Index, EWN
-6.27% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-6.31% Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-6.35% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-6.35% Biotech & Genome, PBE
-6.37% Energy Global, IXC
-6.39% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-6.39% Energy SPDR, XLE
-6.59% Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-6.61% France Index, EWQ
-6.62% Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-6.68% Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
-6.87% Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-6.87% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-7.07% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-7.14% Spain Index, EWP
-7.37% Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-7.42% Materials SPDR, XLB
-7.47% Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-7.61% Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-8.14% Canada Index, EWC
-8.41% Sweden Index, EWD
-8.65% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-8.71% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-8.99% Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-9.27% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-9.86% Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-10.30% China 25 iS, FXI
-11.28% Austria Index, EWO