By Robert W. Colby, Senior Analyst TraderPlanet.com
Energy leads year-end rally.
Crude Oil Futures penetrated resistance at the 12/12/07 high of 94.72 and made a new 1-month high.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio has been showing typical seasonal strength since 12/17/07.
Volume on the NYSE rose by 59%, compared to the Christmas Eve half-day trading session on Monday.
Breadth ended 2% net Bullish, with a greater number of Advancing stocks than Declining stocks on the NYSE.
But still, the New Highs-New Lows on the NYSE ended at 10% net Bearish.
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential “event” stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
12.97% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
10.98% , MBI , MBIA
2.65% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.06% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
4.78% , VC , VISTEON
1.96% , HAS , HASBRO
0.33% , PHW , Hardware & Electronics, PHW
2.84% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
3.40% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.65% , BMS , BEMIS
2.37% , CMI , CUMMINS
3.88% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
3.85% , X , US STEEL CORP
1.84% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
2.12% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
0.37% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
2.35% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
2.02% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.78% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
1.93% , T , AT&T Corp., T
1.16% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
1.45% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
2.48% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
1.72% , TXT , TEXTRON
1.86% , NUE , NUCOR
2.07% , F , FORD MOTOR
1.61% , WAT , WATERS
1.52% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
2.80% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
1.66% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
0.61% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
3.59% , PWER , POWER ONE
2.80% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
0.46% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
0.58% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.62% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
0.93% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.65% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
1.15% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
1.28% , MOT , MOTOROLA
1.72% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.06% , OIH , Oil Services H, OIH
2.21% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.95% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
2.43% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.04% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
1.23% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
1.30% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
0.11% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
1.82% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.85% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-2.16% , MV , METAVANTE TECHNOLOGIES, MV
-6.06% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-1.41% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-3.90% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-3.67% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.95% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.53% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-4.59% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-3.09% , KG , KING PHARM
-2.90% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-1.65% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-2.65% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-1.66% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.16% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-2.15% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-0.35% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-2.57% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-2.48% , KSS , KOHLS
-2.16% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-4.26% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-3.10% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-1.89% , TJX , TJX
-2.78% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-1.63% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-1.60% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.87% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-0.57% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.47% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-1.85% , PLL , PALL
-0.78% , GR , GOODRICH CORP
-5.47% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-2.09% , SOV , SOVEREIGN BANC
-2.51% , GPS , GAP
-0.45% , PHJ , Dividend Growth PS, PHJ
-1.02% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
-2.03% , VFC , VF
-1.19% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-2.29% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.25% , XTO , XTO ENERGY INC
-0.56% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
-1.05% , GAS , NICOR
-1.57% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-1.38% , RAI , RJR TOBACCO HLDS
-1.82% , CCU , CLEAR CHANNEL
-2.42% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-2.56% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-0.81% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-0.92% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-2.95% , JWN , NORDSTROM
Sectors: among the 9 major U.S. sectors, 3 rose and 6 fell.
Major Sectors Ranked for the Day
% Price Change, Sector
-0.11% Health Care
-0.33% Consumer Discretionary
-0.34% Consumer Staples
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Overweight. Relative Strength made a new all-time high on 12/26/07. XLE made an all-time price high on 12/26/07. XLE has been strong compared to the S&P since 3/12/03.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Overweight. The XLB/SPY Relative Strength Ratio made a new all-time high on 11/8/07. Price made new all-time high on 10/29/07. The long-term Relative Strength trend has strongly outperformed since 9/27/2000.
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Overweight. This defensive sector’s Relative Strength made a new 6-year high on 12/5/07, and price made a new all-time high on 12/10/07.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. Relative Strength turned up from a low on 11/30/07. And, long term, XLK has been relatively strong compared to the S&P since its low on 7/24/06.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bullish, Overweight. This defensive sector’s price made a new all-time high on 12/10/07, and Relative Strength made a new 6-year high on 11/26/07.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. Price and Relative Strength have been chopping sideways since 8/3/07. Longer-term trends appear Bullish.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. XLV price moved up to a new 6-month high on 12/3/07. Relative Strength moved up to a new 13-month high on 11/27/07.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bearish, Underweight. On 12/21/07, the XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 6 years. Relative Strength has been trending down since 1/5/05. XLY price made a new 14-month low on 11/27/07.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Underweight. On 12/20/07, the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 7 years. Relative Strength has been trending down since 2/20/07. XLF price hit a new 2.5-year low on 11/26/07.
Foreign stock indices have underperformed U.S. stock indices short term, since 11/27/07. The EFA (the EAFE, international developed country stock markets, ex the U.S. and Canada) made a new price high on 10/31/07 and a new relative strength high on 11/27/07. EFA has substantially outperformed long term, since the Bull market started in 2002, and the secular trend is still Bullish. My Top 10 ETF Relative Strength Ranks have been nearly all Foreign for many months.
NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 outperformed the S&P since 12/17/07. Longer term, NASDAQ outperformed from 8/8/06 to 11/7/07, including a new 6-year Relative Strength high on 11/7/07 and a new price high on 10/31/07.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio has been in a neutral trend since 11/7/07. The long-term, the main trend for the Growth/Value ratio (IWF/IWD) has been rising since 8/8/06.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio has been showing typical seasonal strength since 12/17/07. Year end and early January often has been good for Small Caps. But the main long-term trend is Relatively Bearish for Small Caps. The ratio fell to a new 2.5-year low on 12/17/07. Small Caps substantially underperformed Large Caps since 4/19/06.
Crude Oil Futures penetrated resistance at the 12/12/07 high of 94.72 and made a new 1-month high. Crude appears to be in position to test its 11/21/07 high of 98.12. Oil found support at the 12/6/07 low of 85.60. The U.S. OIL FUND ETF (AMEX: USO) is not a pure play on Crude Oil, although it generally moves in the same direction.
The Energy stock sector outperformed the USO since 11/26/07. Previously, over the 6 months from 5/30/07 to 11/26/07, XLE lagged oil the commodity.
Silver’s main trend is Bearish compared to Gold. The iShares Silver Trust (AMEX: SLV) has been relatively weak since 12/7/06.
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has underperformed Gold Futures since 10/31/07. Price made a new 13-week low on 12/18/07.
Inflation expectations have recovered since 12/5/07. The short-term trend has been mostly rising, based on the behavior of the ratio of two ETFs, TIP/IEF.
U.S. Treasury Bond prices fell to a new 2-month low. Bonds have been in an intermediate-term correction phase since their price top on 11/26/07. Bonds remain reactive to news about the credit crisis: the worse the credit crisis, the higher the Bond prices; the better the credit crisis, the lower the Bond prices.
The U.S. dollar fell sharply, breaking lows over the past 6 trading days. The short-term price trend now appears corrective. Support is at the oversold low at 74.65 on 11/23/07. There could be overhead resistance at the 77.86 high of 12/20/07. The main trend is still Bearish. The dollar fell 19% from its high of 92.53 on 11/16/05 to its low of 74.65 on 11/23/07, moving it into “oversold”.
Daily Rankings of Major Global Markets, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
2.28% Gold Mining
1.45% Oil Services
1.26% Commodity Related
0.69% Euro Index
0.64% Swiss Franc
0.43% Broker Dealers
0.40% Nasdaq Composite
0.39% Nasdaq 100
0.38% Australian Dollar
0.35% Canadian Dollar
0.33% Russell 2000
0.32% British Pound
0.28% AMEX Composite
0.26% Japanese Yen
0.22% Computer Tech