The Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength fell to new 7-year low.
The Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength rose to new all-time high.
Crude Oil Futures rose again to their highest prices in more than a month.
The terrorist assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto reminded investors that the world is a risky place.
Financial stocks fell the most on news that Goldman Sachs now expects larger write-downs for Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Merrill Lynch.
Weak durable orders depressed Materials, Technology, and Industrial stocks, which suffered greater than average losses.
Volume on the NYSE rose by 16% to confirm the price downturn.
Breadth ended 55% net Bearish, with a greater number of Declining stocks than Advancing stocks on the NYSE.
New Highs-New Lows on the NYSE ended at 55% net Bearish, with more new lows than new highs.
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential “event” stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.47% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.65% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.93% , RRD , RR DONNELLEY SON
3.95% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC
3.06% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.57% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
1.38% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
0.47% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
2.69% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.35% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.36% , ETFC.O , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
0.86% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.68% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.74% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.21% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.32% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
0.81% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.51% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.62% , DRI , DARDEN REST
2.09% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
0.89% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
0.58% , BIG , BIG LOTS
0.66% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
0.20% , ANDW , ANDREW
0.30% , CBS , CBS CORP.
0.30% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.15% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.15% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
0.45% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.06% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
0.63% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
0.15% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.06% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.16% , COH , COACH
0.14% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.41% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
0.17% , ORCL , ORACLE
0.08% , CZN , CITIZENS COMMS STK B
0.06% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
0.16% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
0.10% , PPL , PPL
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.21% , SLM , SLM CORP
-1.60% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-1.69% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-12.24% , VC , VISTEON
-2.47% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-1.41% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-2.52% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-2.04% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-2.07% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.57% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-2.24% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-4.46% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-3.63% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.74% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-2.35% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-2.52% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
-1.75% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-4.41% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-2.44% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-4.64% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
-1.19% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-3.37% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-5.13% , SANM , SANMINA
-3.76% , PCAR , PACCAR
-2.77% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.88% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-3.86% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-3.15% , WM , WASHINGTON MUT
-1.66% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-3.62% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-3.87% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-2.36% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-1.87% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.31% , XLNX , XILINX
-7.58% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-5.23% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-2.60% , SSO , Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
-1.76% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-2.35% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-4.07% , UIS , UNISYS
-2.50% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
-1.45% , CCU , CLEAR CHANNEL
-1.30% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.25% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-2.19% , VFC , VF
-2.32% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.47% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-1.18% , VIG , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-2.33% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-0.90% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
Sectors: among the 9 major U.S. sectors, all 9 fell.
Major Sectors Ranked for the Day
% Price Change, Sector
-0.96% Consumer Staples
-1.03% Health Care
-1.41% Consumer Discretionary
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Overweight. Relative Strength made a new all-time high on 12/27/07. XLE made an all-time price high on 12/26/07. XLE has been strong compared to the S&P since 3/12/03.
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Overweight. This defensive sector’s Relative Strength made a new 6-year high on 12/5/07, and price made a new all-time high on 12/10/07.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Overweight. The XLB/SPY Relative Strength Ratio made a new all-time high on 11/8/07. Price made new all-time high on 10/29/07. The long-term Relative Strength trend has strongly outperformed since 9/27/2000.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. Relative Strength turned up from a low on 11/30/07. And, long term, XLK has been relatively strong compared to the S&P since its low on 7/24/06.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bullish, Overweight. This defensive sector’s price made a new all-time high on 12/10/07, and Relative Strength made a new 6-year high on 11/26/07.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. Price and Relative Strength have been chopping sideways since 8/3/07. Longer-term trends appear Bullish.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. XLV price moved up to a new 6-month high on 12/3/07. Relative Strength moved up to a new 13-month high on 11/27/07.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bearish, Underweight. On 12/21/07, the XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 6 years. Relative Strength has been trending down since 1/5/05. XLY price made a new 14-month low on 11/27/07.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Underweight. On 12/27/07, the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 7 years. Relative Strength has been trending down since 2/20/07. XLF price hit a new 2.5-year low on 11/26/07.
Foreign stock indices have underperformed U.S. stock indices short term, since 11/27/07. The EFA (the EAFE, international developed country stock markets, ex the U.S. and Canada) made a new price high on 10/31/07 and a new relative strength high on 11/27/07. EFA has substantially outperformed long term, since the Bull market started in 2002, and the secular trend is still Bullish. My Top 10 ETF Relative Strength Ranks have been nearly all Foreign for many months.
NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 outperformed the S&P since 12/17/07. Longer term, NASDAQ outperformed from 8/8/06 to 11/7/07, including a new 6-year Relative Strength high on 11/7/07 and a new price high on 10/31/07.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio has been in a neutral trend since 11/7/07. The long-term, the main trend for the Growth/Value ratio (IWF/IWD) has been rising since 8/8/06.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio fell. Year end and early January often has been good for Small Caps. But the main long-term trend is Relatively Bearish for Small Caps. The ratio fell to a new 2.5-year low on 12/17/07. Small Caps substantially underperformed Large Caps since 4/19/06.
Crude Oil Futures rose again to their highest prices in more than a month. Crude appears to be in position to test its 11/21/07 high of 98.12. Oil found support at the 12/6/07 low of 85.60. The U.S. OIL FUND ETF (AMEX: USO) is not a pure play on Crude Oil, although it generally moves in the same direction.
The Energy stock sector outperformed the USO since 11/26/07. Previously, over the 6 months from 5/30/07 to 11/26/07, XLE lagged oil the commodity.
February Gold Futures rose again to another new 1-month high. Gold is still in an uptrend after ending a Triangle Consolidation Pattern with an upside breakout on 12/21/07. The 7-week price range is between 855.00 set on 11/7/07 and 780.40 set on 11/20/07.
Silver’s main trend is Bearish compared to Gold. The iShares Silver Trust (AMEX: SLV) has been relatively weak since 12/7/06.
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has underperformed Gold Futures since 10/31/07. Price made a new 13-week low on 12/18/07.
Inflation expectations have recovered since 12/5/07. The short-term trend has been mostly rising, based on the behavior of the ratio of two ETFs, TIP/IEF.
U.S. Treasury Bond prices recovered mildly with an “Inside Day” of consolidation. Bonds have been in an intermediate-term correction phase since their price top on 11/26/07. Bonds remain reactive to news about the credit crisis: the worse the credit crisis, the higher the Bond prices; the better the credit crisis, the lower the Bond prices.
The U.S. dollar fell sharply again, breaking lows over the previous 7 trading days and a 1-month uptrend line. The short-term price trend still appears corrective to the downside. Support is at the oversold low at 74.65 on 11/23/07. There could be overhead resistance at the 77.86 high of 12/20/07. The main trend is still Bearish. The dollar fell 19% from its high of 92.53 on 11/16/05 to its low of 74.65 on 11/23/07, moving it into “oversold”.
1.36% 30Y T-Bond
0.98% Swiss Franc
0.89% Euro Index
0.62% British Pound
0.49% Australian Dollar
0.43% Japanese Yen
0.21% United Kingdom
0.17% Canadian Dollar
-0.45% AMEX Composite
-0.64% US Dollar Index
-0.78% Natural Gas
-0.93% Dow Utilities
-0.96% Consumer Staples
-0.96% Commodity Related
-1.00% Gold Mining
-1.03% Health Care
-1.08% Oil Services
-1.14% Health Care
-1.14% Health Care Products
-1.16% NYSE Composite
-1.19% South Korea
-1.31% Dow Composite
-1.39% S&P 100
-1.41% Dow Transports
-1.41% Consumer Discretionary
-1.42% Dow Industrial
-1.42% Russell 1000
-1.43% S&P 500
-1.44% Nasdaq 100
-1.49% Computer Tech
-1.52% Wilshire 5000
-1.54% S&P Mid Caps
-1.54% Russell 3000
-1.75% Nasdaq Composite
-1.94% Value Line
-2.09% Broker Dealers
-2.20% Disk Drives
-2.61% S&P Small Caps
-2.95% Russell 2000
-3.50% Hong Kong