The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,158.67) is confirming its preexisting major downtrend.

Financial stocks remain the weakest U.S. sector.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose further above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, again confirming a significant uptrend.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell further below the lows of the previous 11 months.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) confirmed a major uptrend last week.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains bearish.
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Stock Market Indicators

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,158.67) absolute price fell further below the lows of the previous 7 weeks and further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/25/11, again confirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

Price momentum oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, have been weaker than price in recent weeks, thereby giving bearish divergence early warning.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1269.27, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

Given the deep-rooted global fundamental economic problems and the lack of workable solutions, plus the constant attempts of government officials to deny reality and talk the markets up, markets are likely to remain volatile, with a continuing heightened sensitivity to news, and with continuing large daily moves in both directions. Note that very high price volatility is typical of bear markets, while bull markets are much less volatile. Reward/Risk appears significantly skewed to the Risk side.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 13-week lows and fell below its 50- and 200-day SMAs on 11/25/11, confirming a significant downtrend. The Ratio has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite fell further below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 11/25/11. The long-term price trend returned to bearish again on 11/17/11, with price below the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below 5-week lows on 11/25/11 and remains bearish. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below 5-week lows on 11/25/11 and remains bearish. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years on 11/25/11, reconfirming the preexisting major Bear trend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/25/11, again confirming a bearish trend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/25/11, again confirming a bearish trend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 67.4% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 32.6% Bears as of 11/16/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. Sentiment has returned to normal: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index firmed up to the 32-35 area in November, rising from a low of 24.44 on 10/28/11, indicating rising fear again. Previously, VIX had fallen to 24.44 on 10/28/11, down from a high of 48.00 on 8/8/11, suggesting that fear had decreased substantially. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose further above 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/25/11, again confirming a significant uptrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.62.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell further below the lows of the previous 11 months on 11/25/11, again confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) broke down below the lows of the previous 7 trading days and below its 200-day SMA on 11/21/11. Previously, USO rose 37% from its October low and appeared overbought by 11/16/11, when it peaked out at 39.74. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/21/11, confirming a minor downside price correction. Longer term, GLD remains above its rising 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullish above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below the lows of the previous 4-weeks on 11/21/11. SLV remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 29.14, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) broke down below the lows of the previous 4-weeks on 11/23/11. JJC remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.41% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
0.76% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
0.41% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.70% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-0.67% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-0.87% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-1.29% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.79% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-0.70% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.75% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-3.38% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-0.64% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-2.99% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-0.77% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-0.69% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
-0.34% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-0.69% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.70% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.55% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-0.18% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.97% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.29% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.27% India PS, PIN
0.91% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.78% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.71% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.69% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.60% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.56% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.51% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.51% Russia MV, RSX
0.44% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.41% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.41% South Africa Index, EZA
0.37% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.36% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.35% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.35% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.34% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.26% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.25% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.12% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% Austria Index, EWO
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.00% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.00% Japan Index, EWJ
0.00% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.00% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.02% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.04% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.06% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.08% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.10% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.14% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.15% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.15% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.16% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.17% France Index, EWQ
-0.17% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.18% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.18% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.19% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.19% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.21% Global 100, IOO
-0.23% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.25% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.25% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.26% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.26% Networking, IGN
-0.27% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.27% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.27% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.29% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.29% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.30% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.31% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.31% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.32% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.32% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.33% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.33% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.35% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.37% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.38% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.40% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.41% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.43% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.45% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.46% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.47% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.48% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.50% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.50% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.51% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.51% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.51% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.54% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.55% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.55% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.56% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.56% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.58% Australia Index, EWA
-0.58% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.63% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.64% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.64% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.69% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.70% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.70% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.70% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.72% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.73% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.73% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.75% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.77% Germany Index, EWG
-0.77% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.78% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.80% Dividend International, PID
-0.82% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.82% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.87% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.87% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.90% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.91% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.91% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.94% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.96% Water Resources, PHO
-0.96% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.96% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.96% Italy Index, EWI
-1.00% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.01% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.06% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.10% Energy Global, IXC
-1.12% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.14% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.16% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.18% Spain Index, EWP
-1.19% Canada Index, EWC
-1.23% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.24% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.24% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.25% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.26% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.27% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.29% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.34% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.35% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.45% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.45% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.54% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.60% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.95% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.36% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.44% Mexico Index, EWW