It was another mixed performance for the stock market on Friday. The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,519.79) finished down 0.10%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.06%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average eased lower by 0.02%. Declines outnumbered advances by a small margin.
For the week, the S&P 500 (SPX: 1,519.79) rose 0.12%. It was the 7th consecutive weekly rise, and it was also the smallest. Weekly price momentum peaked 6 weeks ago, on 1/4/13. The S&P 500 price increases have getting smaller for the past 3 consecutive weeks, suggesting diminishing bullish momentum.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU: 13,981.76) fell 0.08% for the week, after again finding resistance near the round number of 14,000.
Under the surface, many daily price momentum oscillators appear to be rolling over, suggesting continuing non-confirmation and bearish divergence compared to the S&P 500. Momentum oscillators have remained below their 2011-2012 highs and have moved lower since late January. For example, RSI(14) finished the week at 66.40, down from a peak at 74.46 on 1/29/13. MACD(12,26,9) also peaked on 1/29/13 and fell below its lows of the previous 4 weeks on 2/15/13. MACD crossed below its signal line on 2/4/13 and has fallen further below it. That is a problem, because momentum is a leading indicator of price.
The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs (simple moving averages) has stalled out over the past 4 weeks and last week declined to the lowest level since 1/8/13.
The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 200-day SMAs (simple moving averages) has stalled out for 3 weeks and declined last week.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 287 on Friday, down from 311 on Wednesday 2/13/13, down from 453 on 1/22/13, and down from a peak of 492 on 9/14/12. With price indexes at higher highs, the number of stocks making new highs also should be rising. This contracting number suggests loss of bullish momentum.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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VIX Fear Index collapsed to 12.24 on 2/15/13, its lowest level in more than 5 years, since 4/20/2007. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1524.69, high of 2/13/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1495.02, low of 2/4/2013
1489.46, low of 1/24/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1467.50, 50-day SMA
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1406.16, 200-day SMA
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above 5-weeks’ highs on 2/15/13. UUP turned systematically neutral on 2/7/13 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below 7-months lows on 2/14/13. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically bullish on 2/14/13, when the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. There have been 6 whipsaw signals since 2009, however, and the probability of another whipsaw seems fairly significant. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 34.38, 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below 6-months’ lows on 2/15/13. GLD price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA appears to be heading toward a bearish “Dead Cross” below the 200-day SMA in days ahead. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below 6-weeks’ lows on 2/15/13. SLV price appears to have been in a neutral trading range since hitting 28.61 on 1/4/13, but now that range may be in danger of breaking to the downside. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below 5-weeks’ lows on 2/15/13. SLV/GLD is neutral, below its falling 50-day SMA and approaching its falling 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
12.53% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
4.85% , GPS , GAP
3.36% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
2.27% , CTAS , CINTAS
3.73% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
2.98% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
3.96% , CBS , CBS CORP.
2.00% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
3.56% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
7.38% , BBY , BEST BUY
1.41% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
2.52% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
1.59% , ASH , ASHLAND
1.33% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
3.32% , VFC , VF
1.19% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
1.44% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
0.71% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
2.27% , SEE , SEALED AIR
1.56% , CL , COLGATE
1.85% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
1.48% , MON , MONSANTO
0.56% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
1.70% , TIF , TIFFANY
1.70% , EFX , EQUIFAX
1.41% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
1.01% , CHD , Church & Dwight
0.68% , MOLX , MOLEX
0.52% , ECL , ECOLAB
0.74% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
0.97% , DOV , DOVER
0.76% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
0.35% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.23% , A , AGILENT TECH
-3.44% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-2.15% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-3.28% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-5.13% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-2.19% , TGT , TARGET
-1.56% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.36% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.53% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-2.33% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-2.87% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-2.18% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-2.29% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-1.24% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-1.81% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.18% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-1.33% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.33% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.63% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.14% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-2.10% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-2.81% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-1.57% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.15% , XLE , Energy SPDR, XLE
-4.33% , APA , APACHE
-1.79% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-1.48% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-1.55% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-0.86% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-1.38% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-1.34% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.36% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.48% , CVS , CVS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.51% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.39% Mexico Index, EWW
0.38% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.38% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.38% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.35% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.25% China 25 iS, FXI
0.24% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.22% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.21% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.20% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.14% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.14% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.13% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.12% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.12% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.10% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.08% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.06% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.05% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.05% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.04% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.04% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.04% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.04% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.03% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.03% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.02% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.02% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.01% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.00% Dividend International, PID
0.00% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.00% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.00% Water Resources, PHO
-0.01% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.02% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.03% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.03% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.03% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.03% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.04% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.04% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.05% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.07% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.07% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.07% Australia Index, EWA
-0.08% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.09% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.09% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.09% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.09% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.09% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.09% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.11% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.11% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.11% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.12% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.12% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.12% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.13% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.14% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.14% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.14% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.15% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.15% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.16% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.16% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.16% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.16% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.16% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.17% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.18% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.18% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.19% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.20% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.22% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.22% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.23% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.24% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.24% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.25% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.26% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.26% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.26% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.27% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.27% Global 100, IOO
-0.27% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.29% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.29% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.29% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.29% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.29% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.29% France Index, EWQ
-0.30% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.30% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.30% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.30% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.30% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.32% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.34% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.35% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.37% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.40% Networking, IGN
-0.40% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.42% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.44% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.45% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.48% Germany Index, EWG
-0.48% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.49% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.49% Austria Index, EWO
-0.53% Italy Index, EWI
-0.55% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.60% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.62% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.62% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.64% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.65% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.68% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.68% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.69% India PS, PIN
-0.85% Energy Global, IXC
-0.90% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.93% Canada Index, EWC
-1.05% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.06% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.09% Russia MV, RSX
-1.12% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.15% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.29% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.33% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.34% Spain Index, EWP
-1.36% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.38% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.56% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.63% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.69% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.13% Silver Trust iS, SLV
