Okay, so here is the first lesson of 2015 – Never tempt the market gods. Not that I have not learned this lesson many times over, but sometimes I forget it, as I did on Wednesday when I wrote the following worlds filled with hubris …
Now, if the market finishes today as I think it will, then, I can say I will miss 2014 professionally. The year behaved mostly as I suggested it would when I suggested it would, and if the Dow finishes above 18,000 today, then that will be my professional icing on the cake. In the summer of 2014, I said the Dow would achieve this lofty height and here we are.
And there we went. On the final day of 2014, the market gods punished me for suggesting that somehow I was smart enough to pick the 2014 height for the Dow way back in August.
“I get it market gods, my hubris did me in. So, you don’t have to keep punishing me today.”
Actually, I feel pretty good that I came as close as I did. The reality is a number is just that – a number. My point back in August and my point then and today was/is that the market was/is going up, despite the then and now chorus of voices suggesting otherwise. What we are seeing today is a market not sure of where to go right now. No worries about this. The year is just beginning.
If you have stock in GM, though, you should be worried about that. Talk about a company that has royally screwed up. Man-oh-man, the corporate culture of greed is rearing its ugly head with this company.
- General Motors Co began the new year by announcing three new vehicle recalls on Thursday, as the ignition switch crisis continued to dog the automaker after millions of vehicles were recalled in 2014.
All GM had to do was fix the problem before the car went to the line, but “cost issues” kept that from happening and now folks are dead and the company is reeling.
Speaking of reeling …
- Venezuela’s economy is in recession and inflation reached 63.6 percent in November, the government confirmed on Tuesday. Gross domestic product contracted 4.8 percent, 4.9 percent, and 2.3 percent in the last three quarters, the Central Bank said.
It is hard to know how Venezuela’s year will finish, but it is in hard times right now as the year begins. I expect with the price of oil plummeting, the year will not be good for this emerging economy.
The larger point is, however, what investments do you have in economies dependent on oil as a source of revenue? If you feel the oil market will turn around, keep them, but if you see the year turning out as badly for other oil-dependent companies as it might for Venezuela, well, then …
Trade in the day; invest in your life …
