NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio’s 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA on 10/20/10, thereby turning bullish.

Industrial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/20/10, thereby turning bullish.

Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/20/10, thereby turning bullish.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,178.17) made back a healthy 65% of its loss suffered on Tuesday, raising doubts about prospects for any extension of a short-term price pullback. SPX rose 12.27 points or 1.05% on Wednesday, 10/20/10, for its biggest gain in 11 trading days. SPX closed above previous 5-month highs on Monday, 10/18/10, again confirming an uptrend for the intermediate term. The long-term Primary Tide trend remains bullish, confirming the Dow Theory. Signs of distribution, which generally mark significant tops, are absent. Periodic profit taking is normal and expected in any uptrend, of course. When profit taking is brief and when prices spring back quickly, it indicates the presence of eager buyers and is a sign of bullish resilience.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.58% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
5.53% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.86% , PTE , Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
1.31% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
4.23% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
0.80% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
1.96% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
1.28% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
4.52% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
3.35% , BA , BOEING
4.16% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
0.24% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
3.99% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
2.71% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
2.16% , VFC , VF
1.00% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
1.26% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
5.34% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
0.62% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
3.26% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
1.46% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.19% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
5.85% , MBI , MBIA
1.28% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
1.21% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
1.81% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
4.28% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
3.35% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
1.98% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
3.14% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
1.20% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
1.24% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
1.91% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
3.60% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
1.29% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
4.73% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
2.87% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.29% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
3.70% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
2.31% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.58% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-6.38% , CMA , COMERICA
-10.22% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
-4.57% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-3.17% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-3.85% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-2.19% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.07% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-1.67% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
-2.39% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-2.19% , MTB , M&T BANK
-2.19% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-1.86% , ALTR , ALTERA
-0.99% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-1.76% , WPO , Washington Post
-1.23% , XLNX , XILINX
-2.65% , KEY , KEYCORP
-0.85% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-0.85% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-1.16% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-1.87% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-0.76% , TXT , TEXTRON
-0.67% , PEP , PEPSICO
-0.60% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-1.04% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-1.11% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-0.82% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.18% , GPS , GAP
-0.42% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-0.04% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
-0.10% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-0.56% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-0.06% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.05% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 3-month high on 10/8/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose sharply above 10-month highs on 10/15/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 10/18/10 and turned bullish: the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Support 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 24.68 and 25.69.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/20/10, thereby turning bullish. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 32.78, 33.04, 35.00, and 36.16.

Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/20/10, thereby turning bullish. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 34.80, 35.47, and 37.56.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral, consolidating gains between its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price rose further above 2-year highs on 10/18/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 10/14/10 but remains technically neutral. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 but remains technically neutral. On both charts, the 50-day SMAs are below the 200-day SMAs. Price peaked at 62.30 on 4/26/10. Support 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 3-month lows on 10/13/10 and remains neutral, below the falling 50-day SMA. Absolute price of XLU remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 31.27, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.27.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 5-week lows on 10/12/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV remains neutral. Price peaked at 33.16 on 1/20/10. Support 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below 17-month lows on 10/15/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF bounced up into the neutral zone on 10/18/10 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. XLF price remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. XLF has been bearish most days after peaking at 17.12 on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose further above 7-year highs on 10/4/10, again confirming a secular (major) bullish trend. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs to confirm RS.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the falling 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 6-month closing price highs on 10/14/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio leaped up above 9-year highs on 10/15/10 and has been in a rising trend since 12/2/08.The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/20/10, thereby turning bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 3-month lows on 9/30/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains technically neutral, with the rising 50-day SMA moderately below the rising 200-day SMA.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 9/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price made back 65% of its loss made on Tuesday, raising doubts as to its short-term trend. For the intermediate term, Oil has been consolidating more or less sideways/neutral in a choppy trading range since topping at 87.15 on 5/3/10. Support 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.43, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price recovered 23% of its loss on 10/19/10, a very modest retracement that does not contradict the possibility of a minor downside correction for the short term. Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 10/14/10, confirming a bullish major trend. Support 1325.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1388.1, the high on 10/14/10.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 7-week lows on 10/15/10, thereby giving a bearish signal for the Secondary, intermediate-term trend. The RS Ratio is now below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA and falling. GDX has been underperforming GLD since 9/22/10.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 10/14/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold significantly since 8/20/10.

Copper nearest futures contract price recovered 37% of its loss on 10/19/10, a normal retracement that does not contradict the possibility of a minor downside correction for the short term. Copper rose above 2-year highs on 10/14/10, confirming a major uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.6445, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.88, 4.0825 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price closed above the previous 3 days’ highs on 10/20/10, thereby confirming a short-term bounce on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, however, the Bond short-term trend appears uncertain. Support 130.25, 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 2-month highs on 10/13/10 but remains neutral, with the falling 50-day SMA below the falling 200-day SMA.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and has been rising since 8/24/10. This implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing more inflation protection since 8/24/10.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price gave back 86% of its gain made on Tuesday, raising serious doubts as to its short-term trend. USD remains in a well-established bearish trend for the intermediate term. As recently as Friday, 10/15/10, USD fell below 10-month lows, thereby confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 78.61, 76.33, 75.90, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 80.505, 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 45.1% Bulls versus 22.0% Bears as of 10/22/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 2.05, up from 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.

VIX Fear Index plunged below 5-month lows, breaking 18 on 10/13/10, down from 48 in May. A low and falling VIX suggests increasing bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007. On Friday 9/24/10, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to a new 4-month closing price high and on Tuesday 9/28/10 the Dow-Jones Transportation Average confirmed by making a new 4-month closing price high. This signals an intermediate-term Secondary uptrend, according to The Dow Theory.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,178.17) made back a healthy 65% of its loss suffered on Tuesday, raising doubts about prospects for any extension of a short-term price pullback. SPX rose 12.27 points or 1.05% on Wednesday, 10/20/10, for its biggest gain in 11 trading days. SPX closed above previous 5-month highs on Monday, 10/18/10, again confirming an uptrend for the intermediate term. The long-term Primary Tide trend remains bullish, confirming the Dow Theory. Signs of distribution, which generally mark significant tops, are absent. Periodic profit taking is normal and expected in any uptrend, of course. When profit taking is brief and when prices spring back quickly, it indicates the presence of eager buyers and is a sign of bullish resilience.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1185.53, high of 10/18/10

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.92% Sweden Index, EWD
2.80% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.71% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
2.61% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.58% Italy Index, EWI
2.52% Germany Index, EWG
2.45% Austria Index, EWO
2.43% France Index, EWQ
2.41% Water Resources, PHO
2.40% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.37% Commodity Tracking, DBC
2.34% Australia Index, EWA
2.32% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.31% EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.29% European VIPERs, VGK
2.25% South Korea Index, EWY
2.21% REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.20% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.19% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.17% Spain Index, EWP
2.15% Taiwan Index, EWT
2.15% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.08% China 25 iS, FXI
2.07% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.07% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.00% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.98% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.95% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.94% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.91% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.89% Belgium Index, EWK
1.88% EAFE Index, EFA
1.88% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.78% Mexico Index, EWW
1.77% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.77% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.70% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.68% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.64% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.61% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.59% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.56% Networking, IGN
1.54% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.44% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.43% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.42% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.41% Canada Index, EWC
1.37% Global 100, IOO
1.35% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.35% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.33% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.33% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.31% Energy DJ, IYE
1.29% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.29% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.27% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.26% Dividend International, PID
1.25% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.24% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.24% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.22% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.21% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.20% Russia MV, RSX
1.20% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.19% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.19% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.19% India PS, PIN
1.18% Energy Global, IXC
1.16% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.14% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.12% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.11% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.11% Singapore Index, EWS
1.10% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.10% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.09% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.08% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.08% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.08% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.08% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.06% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.06% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.04% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.02% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.02% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.02% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.01% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.01% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.00% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.00% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.00% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.00% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.98% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.98% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.96% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.94% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.94% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.93% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.93% South Africa Index, EZA
0.93% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.93% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.93% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.93% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.92% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.91% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.90% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.90% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.89% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.88% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.88% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.87% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.84% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.84% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.84% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.82% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.81% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.79% Japan Index, EWJ
0.78% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.78% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.73% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.71% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.68% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.67% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.58% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.57% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.31% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.22% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.18% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.12% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.05% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.06% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-2.19% Biotech SPDR, XBI