Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months on 7/1/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downside price pullback.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/1/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
Industrial stock sector ETF (XLI) Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 7/1/14 and fell further below its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
Consumer Staples stock sector ETF (XLP) Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 7/1/14.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,973.32, up 0.67%) absolute price opened higher and kept on rising for nearly 4 hours, capitalizing on widely-expected, beginning-of-month seasonal strength. SPX surrendered a moderate portion of its early gain after peaking at 1:23 pm ET. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above all previous closing prices.
NYSE total volume rose 6% to a level 5% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 767, all year 2014 has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum turned up, but only modestly, since 6/30/14. Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD have failed to match the recent highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 turned up on 6/27/14 but, at only 81, remains well below its June peak above 98 set on 6/4/14, for another example of bearish divergence.
For the very short term, end/beginning of month and pre-holiday (4th of July) seasonal tendencies have been bullish historically. Clearly, the stock market trends in all time frames remain bullish. The overwhelming bullish majority appears to be going on faith that central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies will make stocks rise ever higher–while ignoring the obvious fact that central banks have failed to prevent numerous substantial market declines in the past.
On the cautious side, which is being dismissed by the overwhelming bullish majority, stock prices are overbought and overvalued. Sentiment indicators are off the charts. Bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating. There is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always). These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the market has been ignoring.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/1/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/1/14. QQQ/SPY remains systematically neutral because the 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA. Nevertheless, the 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 6/5/14 such that a bullish crossover appears to be likely in weeks ahead. Absolute price of QQQ has been making 13-year highs and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness. EFA/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/30/14. OEF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/24/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has firmed up since 5/21/14 and is now systematically neutral. Absolute price rose new high on 7/1/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has firmed up since 5/21/14 and is now systematically neutral. Absolute price rose new high on 7/1/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 6/30/14–this after falling below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, and thereby reconfirming its long-term bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.60, 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months on 7/1/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 6/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 37.21, 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 6/30/14 but remains systematically neutral. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA since 5/28/14. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/23/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price also rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/24/14 and remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/25/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 6/26/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 16 weeks on 6/30/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.51% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
7.38% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
1.08% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.78% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.04% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.76% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.32% , SSO , Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
1.41% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.66% , IVV , S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.24% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.63% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
2.56% , LB , L Brands, LB
0.70% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
0.76% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.75% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.95% , HAR , Harman International
1.97% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
1.73% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
0.45% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
2.80% , IBM , IBM
1.74% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
1.76% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
0.86% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.73% , TIF , TIFFANY
2.30% , MDP , MEREDITH
3.24% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
0.78% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.80% , XLNX , XILINX
1.37% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
1.22% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
3.02% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.26% , CBS , CBS CORP.
0.53% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.51% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-2.00% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.66% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-1.85% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-1.30% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.88% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.60% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-2.24% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.55% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.15% , X , US STEEL CORP
-1.80% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-0.03% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.45% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.26% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.53% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.09% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.66% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-0.62% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-1.34% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.50% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.40% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-0.25% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.69% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.25% , EFX , EQUIFAX
-0.48% , XRX , XEROX
-0.13% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.38% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-1.93% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.13% , ED , CON ED
-0.72% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.00% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-0.98% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-1.93% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.84% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.75% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.74% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.60% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.41% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.38% , Italy Index, EWI
1.37% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.36% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.27% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.22% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.21% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.19% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.18% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.11% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.10% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.10% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.08% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.06% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.03% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.02% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.02% , India PS, PIN
1.02% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.01% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.00% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.98% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.96% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.95% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.90% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.90% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.89% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.88% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.87% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.87% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.86% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.85% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.84% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.84% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.83% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.83% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.82% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.82% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.80% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.80% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.80% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.79% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.79% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.79% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.78% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.78% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.78% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.77% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.76% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.76% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.76% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.76% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.75% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.74% , Global 100, IOO
0.73% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.73% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.73% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.72% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.72% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.70% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.70% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.69% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.68% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.68% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.67% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.66% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.63% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.63% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.62% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.62% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.62% , Networking, IGN
0.61% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.60% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.60% , Water Resources, PHO
0.59% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.59% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.58% , Spain Index, EWP
0.58% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.55% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.55% , France Index, EWQ
0.55% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.54% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.54% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.53% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.53% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.52% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.52% , Dividend International, PID
0.51% , Germany Index, EWG
0.51% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.51% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.50% , Canada Index, EWC
0.50% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.46% , Australia Index, EWA
0.43% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.43% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.40% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.39% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.37% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.34% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.31% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.29% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.27% , Russia MV, RSX
0.25% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.24% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.24% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.22% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.21% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.21% , Energy Global, IXC
0.14% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.12% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.10% , Austria Index, EWO
0.09% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.06% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.06% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.01% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.00% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.05% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.07% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.13% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.20% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.25% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.27% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.30% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.30% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.33% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.38% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.41% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.45% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.51% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.55% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.64% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.66% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.69% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.90% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.99% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.09% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.00% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1,978.58, high of 7/1/14
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1944.69, low of 6/26/2014
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1913.52, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1827.71, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
