The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 4/30/14 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at a new closing price high to confirm the new high by the Dow-Jones Transportation Average on 4/23/14. Such a confirmation suggests that significant stock market sectors are in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
Materials stock sector ETF (XLB) Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Financial stock sector ETF (XLF) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/30/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 4/30/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,883.95, up 0.30%) absolute price opened lower and continued down to its low of the day at 10:06 am ET. SPX reversed and rose to its highest intraday price in more than 3 weeks at 2:55 pm ET before turning choppy in the final 65 minutes. SPX closed moderately above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and at its highest closing price in more than 3 weeks.
NYSE total volume rose 4% to a level 13% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) actually fell to 212 from 268 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to price. oth have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears to be deteriorating technically. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing. Absolute price of QQQ crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 4/28/14, thereby confirming a significant downtrend. MDY/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The declining 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing. Absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 4/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell to its lowest level in 2 years on 4/10/14. UUP turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 4/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. From a longer-term perspective, UUP price has whipsawed around its 50-day SMA for many months but still has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. For nearly 3 years, since 5/4/11, UUP has been fluctuating between 23.14 and 20.84. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose to its highest level in 18 months on 4/29/14 and remains systematically bullish. DBA price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/30/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price has stabilized since June and could be forming a base. Currently, the price trend remains systematically neutral. Support: 122.84, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since GDX absolute price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that downtrend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 4/30/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
15.95% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
5.28% , SEE , SEALED AIR
3.36% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
5.55% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
5.70% , FISV , FISERV
4.33% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
5.20% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
3.65% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
2.49% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
2.43% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
2.66% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
0.66% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
2.56% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
0.62% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
2.33% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
2.28% , TXT , TEXTRON
2.81% , CI , CIGNA
1.92% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
1.31% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
0.43% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
2.65% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
1.19% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
2.38% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
6.90% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
0.67% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
1.52% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
1.86% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
0.29% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.63% , PX , PRAXAIR
2.25% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
0.79% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.45% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
0.94% , CMA , COMERICA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.24% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-6.32% , NCR , NCR
-4.97% , EBAY , EBAY
-3.18% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.60% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.04% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.28% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-1.43% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-1.54% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-0.93% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.64% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.09% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.49% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-0.53% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.03% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.30% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-1.21% , X , US STEEL CORP
-0.36% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.63% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-0.76% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-1.12% , LOW , LOWES
-1.02% , CVS , CVS
-0.27% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.68% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-1.80% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.67% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-1.17% , APA , APACHE
-0.86% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-0.51% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.14% , SO , SOUTHERN
-0.33% , PPL , PPL
-0.37% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.32% , MKC , MCCORMICK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.72% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.54% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.52% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.19% , Singapore Index, EWS
1.07% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.92% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.92% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.90% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.83% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.82% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.82% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.80% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.80% , Germany Index, EWG
0.79% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.78% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.77% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.74% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.72% , Austria Index, EWO
0.71% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.71% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.70% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.69% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.68% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.67% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.67% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.66% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.66% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.65% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.65% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.65% , Spain Index, EWP
0.62% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.61% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.60% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.60% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.59% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.59% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.56% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.56% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.54% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.53% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.53% , Canada Index, EWC
0.52% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.50% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.49% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.47% , France Index, EWQ
0.45% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.44% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.43% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.42% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.42% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.40% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.40% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.39% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.39% , Global 100, IOO
0.39% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.39% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.38% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.37% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.37% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.37% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.37% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.37% , Energy Global, IXC
0.36% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.36% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.36% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.35% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.35% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.35% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.33% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.33% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.33% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.32% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.32% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.32% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.32% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.30% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.30% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.30% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.30% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.29% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.29% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.28% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.28% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.27% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.27% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.27% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.27% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.26% , Russia MV, RSX
0.26% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.26% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.26% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.25% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.23% , Water Resources, PHO
0.22% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.22% , Italy Index, EWI
0.20% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.18% , Networking, IGN
0.17% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.16% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.14% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.13% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.13% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.13% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.11% , Dividend International, PID
0.09% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.07% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.07% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.07% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.05% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.04% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.02% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.07% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.08% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.09% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.09% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.11% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.12% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.13% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.19% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.27% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.30% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.34% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.36% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.37% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.37% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.37% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.40% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.44% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.47% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.51% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.53% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.64% , India PS, PIN
-0.81% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.89% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.93% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.04% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.09% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.60% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.84% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1890.90, close of 4/2/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1860.80, 50-day SMA
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1775.04, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
