By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP pair are holding at 0.8006 up a bit since yesterdays writing, adding 0.0006 since our last update. The euro has been weak today against all of its trading partners and has held pretty close to even here. The pair remains in a tight range right at the 80 price level.
Markets are trading fairly flat to start the day. Not much is happening in the currency space, with the DXY flat, EURUSD flat, CAD flat and AUD flat. Equities in Asia traded mixed, with the Nikkei higher (+0.77%) and Shanghai slightly lower (-0.23%). European equities are trading with a slightly positive bias. Commodities are generally weaker with the CRB index down 0.3%.WTI for settlement in August is trading at US$79.20 while the Brent August future is trading at US$92.50. Safe haven bond yields are moderately higher, with US, German and for those matter Canadian 10-years higher between 2-5bps. While Italy’s bond yields are more-or-less unchanged on the day, yields at the front end of the Spanish curve have shot up after the Spanish government said that financial markets are essentially closed to Spain.
European officials continue to offer material for the news industry ahead of the EU summit. Yesterday featured rumors that PM Monti of Italy would resign if Germany were to veto Eurobonds (vociferously denied by PM Monti’s office), the release of a multi-point ‘way forward’ for Europe by EU President Van Rompuy, and the memorable quotation from Chancellor Merkel that some type of joint debt liability would not happen “as long as I live.” Expect more today as Monti and the Eurogroup’s Juncker will hold a joint press conference, The EU’s Van Rompuy will meet with Greek President Papoulias (not PM Samaras), and Hollande and Merkel will have dinner at the Elysee Palace.
German regional inflation data has been released (aggregate German CPI will be released at 8:00amEST today) and it looks as though the national CPI will decline by 0.1% m/m, in line with Scotia’s estimate (four out of six regions showed CPI declines of -0.1% m/m with the others flat). Energy prices declined substantially across the regions (in the area of 3%), a trend that European economics team expects to be reflected across Europe in June CPI data.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Releases for June 26, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
Jun. 27 |
EUR |
German Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.7% |
-0.7% |
-0.5% |
||
|
EUR |
Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) |
-4.9% |
-8.2% |
-10.0% |
|||
|
EUR |
Italian Business Confidence |
88.9 |
85.5 |
86.6 |
|||
|
NOK |
Norwegian Unemployment Rate |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
|||
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
30.2K |
32.8K |
32.1K |
|||
|
EUR |
Italian 6-Month BOT Auction |
2.957% |
2.104% |
||||
|
GBP |
CBI Distributive Trades Survey |
42 |
10 |
21 |
|||
|
USD |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
-7.1% |
-0.8% |
||||
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
|||
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.8% |
1.9% |
|||
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.7% |
-0.6% |
|||
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
1.1% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|||
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jun 28 |
7:55 |
EUR |
0K |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-8.5B |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
|||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-0.3% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
1.9% |
||
|
23:01 |
GBP |
-29 |
||
|
Jun 29 |
29th-4th |
EUR |
0.6% |
|
|
6:45 |
EUR |
0.6% |
||
|
7:00 |
CHF |
0.81 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
2.5% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.3% |
||
|
13:45 |
USD |
52.7 |
||
|
13:55 |
USD |
74.1 |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 28 09:10 Italy
Jun 28 17:00 US
Click here for further EUR/GBP Forecast.
Originally posted here
