By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD continues with negative sentiment but was able to add a few pips today to close the week at 1.2384. The US was hit with a slew of negative eco data, which caused a dip in the strength of the USD. The pair traded most of the day in the low 1.23 range and it a low of 1.2290 breaking through the 1.22 number.
After markets digested the poor eco data, the USD was able to maintain its strength, although many investors moved back to the safety of gold, which the markets had been ignoring. Markets are now sure that the Feds will take some aggressive action to get the US economy back on the recovery trail.
The flagging economic indicators from the U.S and China are proving to be a headwind for investors, who are already unnerved by the escalating debt concerns in the Euro region. The evening session could pack a punch with some heavyweight economic indicators scheduled for release from the U.S. After a disappointing ADP employment numbers yesterday, market watchers would be looking at the government payrolls and the data is seen as quite influential on the financial markets. Taking the centre stage this evening would be the U.S manufacturing figures, which is expected to paint a glum picture. However, any major incongruity in these data could spell doom on the weekend trade. After kick starting the year on a positive note, the U.S economy is showing signs of dithering in midst of jitters from Europe and domestic macro-economics. Now, markets are set to enter a phase, where any dismal news out of the Europe could dent a significant blow to the financial markets and investors would be zealously looking at the Greek elections slated for June 17th.
To sum up the US for the past two days, there is just one thing to say, “spring stall” most of the indicators from the US have been negative or lackluster.
Employment data is terrible, Unemployment data is just as bad, Housing data is negative overall. Durable goods and retail sales, consumer confidence and manufacturing have all turned negative.
If it wasn’t for the mess in Europe, investors would be fleeing the US. Today, the Nonfarm data showed that the US only added 69,000 jobs, when it needs to average 200,000 additions per month. Unemployment has climbed back to 8.2%. GBP was revised downward this week and ISM manufacturing reported below forecast.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 1, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 01 |
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
|
JPY |
Capital Spending |
3.30% |
1.30% |
7.60% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Manufacturing PMI |
50.40 |
52.20 |
53.30 |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Man PMI |
48.40 |
48.70 |
||
|
CHF |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.1% |
2.0% |
4.7% |
|
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
45.4 |
46.4 |
46.9 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
44.7 |
44.4 |
44.4 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
45.2 |
45.0 |
45.0 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.1 |
45.0 |
45.0 |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.9 |
49.7 |
50.2 |
|
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.0% |
11.0% |
11.0% |
|
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
||
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
69K |
150K |
77K |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.1% |
8.1% |
|
|
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
|
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
82K |
160K |
87K |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
53.5 |
53.9 |
54.8 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 5 |
9:00 |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.3% |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
2.2% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.5 |
|
|
Jun 6 |
6th-8th |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
55.8 |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
2.8% |
|
|
12:30 |
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
-0.5% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
Beige Book |
||
|
23:01 |
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
-3.3% |
|
|
Jun 7 |
7:00 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
235.6B |
|
7:15 |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
53.3 |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
325B |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
TBD |
GBP |
MPC Rate Statement |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
383K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
||
|
Jun 8 |
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-1.5% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Consumer Inflation Expectations |
3.5% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 31 14:30 Sweden
Jun 04 10:00 Norway
Jun 05 00:30 Japan
Jun 05 09:30 Belgium
Jun 05 14:30 Sweden
Jun 06 09:30 Germany
Jun 06 09:30 Portugal
Jun 06 14:30 UK
Jun 07 00:30 Japan
Jun 07 08:30 Spain
Jun 07 08:50 France
Jun 07 09:10 Sweden
Jun 07 15:00 US
Jun 08 10:00 Belgium
Jun 08 15:30 Italy
Click here a current EUR/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
