By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD climbed today, as crude prices continued to fall, creating more weakness for the CAD, which closed at 1.0391

CAD has weakened further, losing another 0.5% since yesterday’s close or a total of 6% since its high on April 27th. Previous periods of risk aversion have typically been relatively short and violent and it is increasingly evident that we are in the midst of just such a period. Unless there is an attempt to relieve some of the European uncertainty, CAD losses are likely to continue.

Eco data in the US was and has been very negative, but has not put a dent in the strength of the USD.

To sum up the US for the past few days, there is just one thing to say, “spring stall” most of the indicators from the US have been negative or lackluster.

Employment data is terrible, Unemployment data is just as bad, Housing data is negative overall. Durable goods and retail sales, consumer confidence and manufacturing have all turned negative.

If it wasn’t for the mess in Europe, investors would be fleeing the US. Today, the Nonfarm data showed that the US only added 69,000 jobs, when it needs to average 200,000 additions per month. Unemployment has climbed back to 8.2%. GBP was revised downward this week and ISM manufacturing reported below forecast.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 1, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun. 01

KRW

South Korean CPI (YoY)

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

JPY

Capital Spending

3.30%

1.30%

7.60%

CNY

Chinese Manufacturing PMI

50.40

52.20

53.30

CNY

Chinese HSBC Man PMI

48.40

48.70

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY)

0.1%

2.0%

4.7%

CHF

SVME PMI

45.4

46.4

46.9

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI

44.7

44.4

44.4

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI

45.2

45.0

45.0

EUR

Manufacturing PMI

45.1

45.0

45.0

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

45.9

49.7

50.2

EUR

Unemployment Rate

11.0%

11.0%

11.0%

USD

Average Hourly Earnings

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM)

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

CAD

GDP (MoM)

0.1%

0.3%

-0.2%

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls

69K

150K

77K

USD

Personal Spending (MoM)

0.3%

0.3%

0.2%

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.1%

8.1%

USD

Average Weekly Hours

34.4

34.5

34.5

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls

82K

160K

87K

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index

53.5

53.9

54.8

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Forecast

Previous

Jun 4

14:00

USD

Factory Orders m/m

-1.5%

Jun 5

12:30

CAD

Building Permits m/m

4.7%

13:00

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

13:00

CAD

Overnight Rate

1.00%

1.00%

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.5

Jun 6

12:30

USD

Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q

-0.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

18:00

USD

Beige Book

Jun 7

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

383K

14:00

CAD

Ivey PMI

52.7

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Jun 8

12:15

CAD

Housing Starts

245K

12:30

CAD

Employment Change

58.2K

12:30

CAD

Trade Balance

0.4B

12:30

CAD

Unemployment Rate

7.3%

12:30

CAD

Labor Productivity q/q

0.7%

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-51.8B

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 31 14:30 Sweden

Jun 04 10:00 Norway

Jun 05 00:30 Japan

Jun 05 09:30 Belgium

Jun 05 14:30 Sweden

Jun 06 09:30 Germany

Jun 06 09:30 Portugal

Jun 06 14:30 UK

Jun 07 00:30 Japan

Jun 07 08:30 Spain

Jun 07 08:50 France

Jun 07 09:10 Sweden

Jun 07 15:00 US

Jun 08 10:00 Belgium

Jun 08 15:30 Italy

Click here for further USD/CAD Forecast.

Originally posted here