By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD broke under the 1.26 price level today, to trade at 1.2592.
Cautiousness prevailed in the market ahead of the European Union Summit as investors were contemplating whether or not the EU leaders will come out with a solid action plan to tackle the region’s financial crisis. The euro struck a 21 month low against the US dollar ahead of the Summit. In addition to skepticism over the EU leaders’ action, concerns that Greece may have to exit the euro zone and worries over Chinese economic growth weighed on the markets.
Meanwhile, the World Bank cut the growth forecast for China, top consumer of metals and energy, building further pressure on commodities market. Meanwhile, the worries over economic growth in China and the persisting debt crisis in Euro Zone helped drag down the euro to its lowest level this year.
With hope fading for significant action at today’s EU summit, risk aversion is rising amid fears that Europe and markets are unprepared for the downside risks posed by the crisis. Global growth forecasts continue be shift lower.
Expectations for progress at today’s EU Summit in Brussels have been pared back after rumors circulating this past weekend suggested that the EU might take dramatic actions. There were rumors that the EU might socialize European debts by issuing so-called ‘Euro-bonds’ backed jointly and severally by its member states, rumors that further and even greater rescue funds might be forthcoming, rumors that the EU might make money from its various lending funds available for the bailing out of the European banking sector, etc. Notwithstanding whether any of these are good or bad ideas, there are important dates on the calendar that essentially serve as ‘decision nodes’ which will condition whether the EU states will want to commit further capital to bailouts – particularly bailouts of Greece.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for May 23, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 23 |
JPY |
Trade Balance |
-0.48T |
-0.60T |
-0.62T |
|
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-2.3% |
-0.8% |
2.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
-1.1% |
1.0% |
3.1% |
|
|
EUR |
Industrial New Orders (MoM) |
1.8% |
-0.1% |
-1.2% |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-17 |
-10 |
-8 |
|
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.1% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
||
|
CAD |
Leading Indicators (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
CAD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
343K |
335K |
332K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
May 24 |
6:00 |
CHF |
1.69B |
|
|
7:00 |
EUR |
46.9 |
||
|
7:00 |
EUR |
45.2 |
||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
46.2 |
||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
52.2 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
109.9 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
45.9 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
46.9 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
1.8% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-0.2% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
31.9K |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-3.3% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-4.0% |
||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
-10.7 |
||
|
May 25 |
6:00 |
EUR |
5.6 |
|
|
7:15 |
CHF |
4.04M |
||
|
TBD |
ALL |
|||
|
13:55 |
USD |
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Date Time Country
May 24 15:30 Italy
May 24 17:00 US
May 25 15:30 Italy
Click here a current EUR/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
