Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/23/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term.

Italy, Germany, and France fell 2.5% to 3.5%.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months, reconfirming its bearish trend.

NASDAQ Composite (2,970.45) fell 1.00% on Monday. NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks and closed further below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price also fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks and closed further below its 50-day SMA, confirming a significant downside correction.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,366.94) fell 0.84% on Monday. NYSE volume fell 5%, suggesting relatively weak demand for stocks.

SPX is down 2.95% for April, month-to-date, despite widely-hailed earnings beats.

SPX crossed below its 50-day SMA again 4/19/12 and remains below it. SPX has closed below its 50-day SMA 7 of the past 10 trading days. SPX has closed below its 20-day SMA each of the past 13 trading days.

MACD based on SPX fell bearishly below its Signal Line 3 weeks ago, on 3/28/12, and has remained below every day since.

On-Balance Volume based on SPX has demonstrated a bearish divergence since OBV peaked on 3/19/12.

Volatility has increased over the past 5 weeks, suggesting doubt replacing bullish complacency.

A variety of technical indicators have been demonstrating waning bullish momentum for stocks. A downside correction or shakeout has seemed overdue, according to past norms.

Following unusually large price run ups, such as Q1 2012, stocks become more vulnerable to sudden reversals. Potential Reward relative to potential Risk remains unattractive for stocks at this time.

The SPX chart broke down below the rising lower boundary line of a Bearish Rising Wedge on 4/5/12, thereby giving a clear bearish chart signal. This chart pattern suggests that stocks could erase all gains since the 10/4/11 low of 1,074.77 on the S&P 500.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory signaled a downside Secondary Reaction on 4/9/12, as both Industrials and Transports fell below their lows of the previous 3 weeks. The Averages gave an early warning by diverging after 2/3/12, as the Transports turned corrective and failed to confirm higher highs by the Industrials.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks and closed further below its 50-day SMA on 4/23/12. Absolute price also fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks and closed further below its 50-day SMA on 4/23/12, confirming a significant downside correction.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 3/29/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. Systematically, BKF/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/23/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. EEM/SPY remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 4/5/12. Systematically, EFA/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/14/11. Don’t be fooled by the minor stabilization over the past 2 weeks–the important trend is bearish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 4/19/12, suggesting a minor pullback within its major bullish trend. OEX/SPX remains above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been relatively weak for a year, since 4/5/11. IWM/SPY fell further below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/10/12, reconfirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term. Systematically, IWM/SPY returned to bearish status again on 4/20/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been relatively weak since 4/5/11. MDY/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/10/12, reconfirming downside momentum for the medium term. Systematically, MDY/SPY remains technically neutral, below both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA slightly above the 200-day SMA.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1392.76, high of 4/17/2012
1391.56, low of 3/29/2012
1383.29, low of 4/18/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1379.80, 50-day SMA
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1357.38, low of 4/11/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1337.35, low of 2/10/2012
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1273.26, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 119.14, 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.80, 106.49 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/10/12. Although it has stabilized in recent days, JNK/LQD remains below its 50-day SMA and its 200-day SMA.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) appears to have turned corrective, in a minor way, after peaking on 3/19/12. It would not take much price strength to turn TIP/IEF bullish again, however. Systematically, TIP/IEF is neutral at this time: below its 50-day SMA (although just moderately below now), above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) is systematically neutral at this time: below its 50-day SMA, above 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 21.85, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.23, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/23/12. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 4/18/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 4/3/12, turning systematically neutral. A day or two of strong price action could turn USO bullish again. USO remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 38.31, 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.89, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks and fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 4/4/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 156.58, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 4/23/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/23/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/23/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell further below its lows of the past 3 months on 4/16/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, however, JJC remains neutral: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA now only moderately above the 200-day SMA. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.93% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
2.73% , SUN , SUNOCO
2.79% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.71% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
2.43% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
0.75% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.66% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.53% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
1.26% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
1.73% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.50% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
1.23% , MET , METLIFE
0.95% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
1.56% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
1.62% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
0.85% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
0.19% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.20% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.88% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.10% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
1.51% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
0.12% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
1.29% , ZION , ZIONS
1.60% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.22% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
0.13% , XRX , XEROX
0.27% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.55% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.57% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.12% , FISV , FISERV
0.84% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.82% , SVU , SUPERVALU
0.73% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.96% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-6.09% , K , KELLOGG
-1.88% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-5.14% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-4.66% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-4.02% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-1.43% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-1.33% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-2.46% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-4.58% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-0.93% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-0.59% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-2.49% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.25% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-1.77% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-1.12% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-1.09% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-2.95% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-3.66% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-0.78% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-3.79% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-1.00% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-1.32% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-1.63% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-4.55% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.55% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.62% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-1.51% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-6.79% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-1.38% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-3.44% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-1.60% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-2.54% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.88% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.73% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.27% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.20% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.19% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.11% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.10% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.08% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.08% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.10% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.18% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.18% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.21% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.26% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.29% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.30% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.43% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.58% Energy Global, IXC
-0.58% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.60% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.69% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.71% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.73% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.73% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.74% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.76% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.77% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.78% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.78% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.79% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.81% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.81% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.82% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.82% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.83% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.83% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.84% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.86% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.87% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.87% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.88% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.88% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.89% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.90% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.91% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.91% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.91% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.93% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.95% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.95% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.95% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.95% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.97% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.97% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.97% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.97% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.97% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.01% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.02% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.03% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.03% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.03% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.04% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.05% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.06% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.08% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.11% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.12% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.13% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.13% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.14% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.14% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.17% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.18% Global 100, IOO
-1.22% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.23% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.24% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.24% Dividend International, PID
-1.25% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.25% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.25% Canada Index, EWC
-1.26% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.26% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.27% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.28% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.29% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.31% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.31% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.37% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.38% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.38% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.38% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.39% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.40% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.44% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.46% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.48% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.49% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.51% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.52% Australia Index, EWA
-1.54% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.55% Water Resources, PHO
-1.55% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.55% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.56% Networking, IGN
-1.60% Austria Index, EWO
-1.64% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.68% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.79% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.80% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.82% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.88% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.90% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.95% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.96% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.96% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.00% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.02% Spain Index, EWP
-2.05% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.09% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.20% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.24% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.27% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.31% Russia MV, RSX
-2.46% France Index, EWQ
-2.49% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.54% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.55% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.63% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.87% Germany Index, EWG
-2.95% India PS, PIN
-2.97% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.50% Italy Index, EWI
-4.55% Sweden Index, EWD