2009 has been a difficult year for short term futures traders.
A friend of mine who invests in a variety of the largest and best-known Commodity Trading Advisors is down 5% for the year.
Three of my most experienced traders in the Electronic Trader Mentoring Program, each of whom had a great year in 2008, are up only modestly in 2009.
The reason that most futures markets have been hard to trade for short term traders is that a significant portion of the largest higher time frame traders – the traders who move the market – stopped trading at the end of 2008. In the case of Lehman and countless hedge funds, many of yesterday’s large traders will not be returning.
I have seen whole categories of important traders leave the market several times over my 37 years trading. My experience shows that new, large traders will emerge again.
In any case, the markets will not return to exactly the way they were before 2008. But, the markets will once again become filled with opportunities for traders who are prepared for them.
What is good performance in a difficult year?
I believe that in order to succeed as a professional short term trader, you need to figure out how to advance modestly in a bad year and be ready to make the most of opportunities in a good year.
For 2009, a successful performance on your part may be simply that you did not lose money. Your success should be measured by the extent you honed your skills as a professional trader while keeping your capital intact, ready for better times.
As for 2010, I would start the year trading conservatively. If the markets come alive with opportunities, be ready to change your strategy to take advantage of those opportunities.
Know that in good times, you need to press your advantage and in difficult times your object is to grow as a trader conserving your capital, vigilantly watching for opportunities to exploit.
Wishing you success in your trading, Jeff
Copyright © 2009 by Jeff Quinto
All rights reserved
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