I often preach about success from failure meaning that the best technical signals are often failed technical signals. In other words, if the market is in a trading range, which it is, then a failure to trade all the way to the top of the range (resistance) is a failure of the bulls. Usually, it portends a trip all the way back down to the bottom of the range, support, if not an outright breakdown.br /br /This week, the stock market opened very strong and I removed some hedges on the idea that stocks were on their way to another 400-point melt-up. That was Monday but by late afternoon the gains were pared a bit and it was all down hill the rest of the week. Prices should (silly word in the market) have paused and then headed toward resistance. br /br /Housing and REITs had breakouts. Financials were still enjoying their dead cat bounce and it looked like there was some more spring in Tabby’s flight. But there there wasn’t. I put the hedges back on Tuesday.br /br /It’s a pretty good bet that even if this market is carving out a bottom that it is going to test the lows one more time. So much for the “double bottom” chatter out there. And boy am I glad to have written Monday’s Barron’s Online column on funky financials. br /br /I had a pretty good week in the advisory services by going long the double short financials ETF Tuesday and buying the oil ETF at the open Wednesday. That can make a month, for sure.
Uncategorized