January
25,
2011 HOME EDUCATIONAL
PRODUCTS CONTACT
TONI An online version
of this newsletter is available at http://www.tonihansen.com/Newsletters/current.html. ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— $75 Credit
Towards Your Trading Education Dear Trader, As a special Thank you for following my teachings and
market commentary over the years, I’m offering a coupon code worth $75
off your choice of any of my educational courses located at http://tonihansen.com/courses.html. This code is good through January 31st. (Credit applied at checkout) CODE: TFM120119153609 All my best,
Toni Hansen Daily
Commentary Fed Focus (Note:
Unless otherwise stated, the
index
action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the
respective indices.
Actual index action may
differ slightly in terms of
pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.) TUESDAY’S MARKET
WRAP-UP Market
Snapshot
for January 24,
2011 (7:16 p.m. ET):
Closing
Prices: DOW
12,675.75 (-33.07,
-0.26%), SandP
500 1,314.65 (-1.35,
-0.1%), NASDAQ
2,786.64 (+2.47, +0.09%), Nikkei 225 8,823.01 (+37.68, +0.43%), DAX 6,419.22 (-17.40, -0.27%), FTSE 5,751.90 (-30.66, -0.53%) OIL 99.17, GOLD 1,666.50, SILVER 32.125 EURO 1.4042,
YEN 77.79, BRITISH POUND 1.5635, U.S.
DOLLAR INDEX 80.025 Earnings Impact Earnings have been one of the session’s highlights. Among the blue
chips posting earnings, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), DuPont (DD),
and
McDonald’s (MCD) all beat expectations, while Travelers (TRV) and
Verizon (VZ) fell short. JNJ and DD both had a lack-luster session with
DD opening lower only to recover those losses late in the morning. MCD,
TRV, and VZ all had dismal opens and sold off sharply to begin the
session before giving way to stagnant trade like most of the market
throughout the remainder of the day. Unlike most of Monday’s earnings annoucements, Apple (APPL) went gonzo
afterhours on news that it reported a 118% gain in net income as well
as a 73% gain in revenue for its first fiscal quarter. The index
futures were up sharply following the announcement, but fell apart once
again with the European open. Europe just can’t shake the burden of
it’s crisis countries and Greece has once again taken the spotlight
with fears that it could miss spring bond payments. Additionally, the
International Monetary Fund cut its 2012 global growth outlook to 3.3%
from 4% last September. Dow
Jones Industrial Average (Figure 1) Fed Focus Today
the Fed will be wrapping up a two-day policy meeting and will annouce
its latest interest rate policy this afternoon. This is expected to
remain unchanged, but what will change is that for the first time ever,
the Federal Reserve will include an
outlook on interest rates in its policy announcement. We should see the
market react strongly intraday following the news with wider swings
like we had seen in past years when rates were more subject to change. The typical Fed reaction is usually in two sets of three reactionary
waves on two time frames. The first is on the 1-2 minute time frames
with an initial reaction, a secondary reaction, and then a third
counter move. It is not uncommon to see the second reaction play out
more strongly than the first. This entire set of three waves then
creates the first wave of a larger set on the 5 minute time frame. This
larger set is easier to trade, particularly the second and third waves,
because by that time things have started to slow down a bit. SandP
500 (Figure 2) Index
Wrap-up The
Dow Jones Industrial
Average ($DJI) ended the day on Tuesday with a loss of 33.07 points, or 0.26%, and
closed at 12,675.75.
A third of the Dow’s thirty index components posted a gain. The
strongest performers
were United Technologies (UTX) (+1.20%), IBM (IBM) (+1.03%),
and WalMart (WMT) (+0.79%).
The losers were Travelers (TRV) (-3.80%), McDonald’s (MCD) (-2.18%),
and Verizon (VZ) (-1.59%). The
SandP 500 ($SPX) finished the session with a loss of 1.35 points, or 0.1%, and
closed at 1,314.65. The
top performing industry groups were consumer discretionary (+0.04%),
health care (+0.1%), and technology (+0.1%), while the weakest were the
financials (-0.2%), energy (-0.3%), and consumer staples (-0.4%). The
top individual percentage performers
were Waters Corp. (WAT) (+7.97%), Quest Diagnostics (DGX) (+7.49%), and
EMC Corp. (EMC) (+7.25%). The top decliners were Zions Bancorporation
(-7.55%), Cablevision Sys. Corp. (CVC) (-4.13%), and Travelers (TRV)
(-3.80%). The Nasdaq
Composite
($COMPX) ended the session higher by 2.47 points, or 0.09%,
on Tuesday and
it closed at 2,786.64. The
strongest performers in the
Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) were Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) (+4.44%), Autodesk
(ADSK) (+3.32%), and Life Technologies (LIFE) (+3.09%).
The
weakest were Research In Motion (RIMM) (-3.53%), Sears Holdings (SHLD)
(-3.40%), and Warner Chilcott (WCRX) (-3.23%). Nasdaq
Composite (Figure 3) ECONOMIC REPORTS AND
EVENTS THIS WEEK U.S. Domestic:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -5:00) (New York, Toronto) Jan
25 7:00
AM MBA Mortgage
Index 01/21
Jan 25 10:00 AM Pending Home
Sales Dec-
Jan 25 10:00 AM FHFA Housing
Price Index Nov
Jan 25 10:30 AM Crude
Inventories 01/21
Jan 25 12:30 PM FOMC
Rate
Decision Jan Jan 26 8:30
AM Initial
Claims 01/21
Jan 26 8:30
AM Continuing
Claims 01/14
Jan 26 8:30
AM Durable
Orders Dec
Jan 26 8:30
AM Durable Orders -ex
Auto Dec
Jan 26 10:00 AM New Home
Sales Dec
Jan 26 10:00 AM Leading
Indicators Dec Jan 27 8:30
AM Chain
Deflator-Adv. Q4
Jan 27 8:30
AM GDP-Adv. Q4
Jan 27 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment –
Final Jan International:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -4:00) (New York, Toronto) Jan
24 JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (JAN 24)***
Jan 24 03:30 EUR German
Purchasing Manager
Index
Manufacturing (Jan A)
Jan 24 03:30 EUR German
Purchasing Manager
Index
Services (Jan A)
Jan 24 04:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index
Composite (Jan A)
Jan 24 04:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index
Manufacturing (Jan A)
Jan 24 04:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index
Services (Jan A)
Jan 24 04:30 GBP Public
Finances (PSNCR) (Dec)
Jan 24 04:30 GBP PSNB ex
Interventions (Dec)
Jan 24 04:30 GBP Public Sector
Net Borrowing
(Dec)
Jan 24 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Industrial New
Orders (NOV)
(Nov)
Jan 24 08:30 CAD Retail Sales
(NOV) (Nov)
Jan 24 18:50 JPY Merchandise
Trade Balance
Total (Dec)
Jan 24 19:30 AUD Consumer
Prices Index (4Q)***
Jan 24 19:30 AUD Consumer
Prices Index RBA
Trimmed Mean
(4Q)
Jan 24 19:30 AUD Consumer
Prices Index RBA
Weighted
Median (4Q)
Jan 24 21:00 NZD Credit Card
Spending (Dec) Jan 25 04:00 EUR German IFO –
Business Climate
(Jan)
Jan 25 04:00 EUR German IFO –
Current
Assessment (Jan)
Jan 25 04:00 EUR German IFO –
Expectations (Jan)
Jan 25 04:30 GBP Bank of
England Minutes***
Jan 25 04:30 GBP BBA Loans for
House Purchase
(Dec)
Jan 25 04:30 GBP Gross Domestic
Product (4Q
A)***
Jan 25 10:00 USD Pending Home
Sales (Dec)
Jan 25 12:30 USD Federal Open
Market Committee
Rate
Decision (JAN 25)***
Jan 25 15:00 NZD Reserve Bank
of New Zealand
Rate
Decision (JAN 26)***
Jan 25 16:30 NZD Business NZ
Performance of
Manufacturing Index (Dec) Jan 26 02:00 EUR German GfK
Consumer Confidence
Survey
(FEB) (Feb)
Jan 26 08:30 USD Durable Goods
Orders (Dec)***
Jan 26 08:30 USD Durables Ex
Transportation
(Dec)
Jan 26 10:00 USD Leading
Indicators (Dec)
Jan 26 10:00 USD New Home Sales
(Dec)
Jan 26 16:45 NZD Trade Balance
(Dec)
Jan 26 16:45 NZD Balance (YTD)
(Dec)
Jan 26 18:30 JPY National
Consumer Price Index
(Dec)
Jan 26 18:30 JPY National
Consumer Price Index
Ex Food,
Energy (Dec)
Jan 26 18:50 JPY BOJ to Publish
Minutes of
December
20-21 Board Meeting***
Jan 26 18:50 JPY Retail Trade
(Dec)
Jan 26 18:50 JPY Large
Retailers’ Sales (Dec) Jan
27 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (Jan)
Jan 27 03:00 CHF KOF Swiss
Leading Indicator
(Jan)
Jan 27 08:30 USD Gross Domestic
Product
(Annualized)
(4Q A)***
Jan 27 08:30 USD Gross Domestic
Product Price
Index (4Q
A)***
Jan 27 08:30 USD Core Personal
Consumption
Expenditure
(4Q A)
Jan 27 08:30 USD Personal
Consumption (4Q A)
Jan 27 09:55 USD U. of Michigan
Confidence (Jan
F)*** ***
Highly influential
Notice:
The Bastiat Group, Inc. has attempted to verify the information
contained in this calendar, however, any aspect of such info may change
without notice. Foreign economic reports included in this list are only
those deemed “medium to high impact”. KEY EARNINGS
ANNOUNCEMENTS THIS WEEK Monday, Jan 23, 2012
Before: BOH, HAL, LCRY, PETS, STBA, BSRR, TWIN, UBNK, WIBC
During: –
After: ALB, TBBK, CATY, CSX, ELS, FNB, FDEF, HMNF, JJSF, KSU, NBTB,
PKG, PRK,
PLXT, PLCM, PBNY, STM, TXN, TRST, TUES, VMW, VLTR, WDC, WWD, ZION Tuesday, Jan 24, 2012
Before: APD, AKS, ASH, BHI, EAT, CNI, COH, CBE, DD, EMC, FMER, GSBC,
HOG, IIVI,
IGT, JNJ, KEY, KMB, MCD, MDP, MTG, MNRO, OSIS, BTU, PRWT, PVTB, DGX,
RYN, RF,
SMED, SI, SNV, TCB, TRV, VZ, VCBI, WAT During: PTI, SEV, SFST, WFD
After: AMD, ALTR, AAPL, BKI, CA, EFII, ETH, FBC, FIO, HTCH, IBKC, MRTN,
MRCY,
NSC, OMN, PCBK, PVSW, RFMD, STLD, SYK, SMCI, SUPX, TAYC, TPX, TSS,
TRMK, UMBF,
WSBC, WSTL, YHOO Wednesday, Jan 25,
2012
Before: ABT, ATI, AIT, ADP, BKU, BMS, BA, BOLT, CPF, COP, GLW, CRRC,
CFR, DAL,
DOV, EXC, FCFS, FCF, FMBI, GD, HES, HCBK, IGTE, MPX, MWV, MOLX, MSI,
NYB, NVS,
OXY, PJC, PII, BPOP, PX, REDF, RKT, ROK, ROL, RES, SAP, SLAB, SO, STJ,
SWFT,
TEL, ERIC, TXT, UGI, UTX, LCC, GWW, WLP, WRLD, XRX
During: AVX, UVSP
After: AOSL, APU, AMGN, ANEN, AF, BANR, BRKL, ELY, CGI, CTXS, COHR,
CNS, CVD,
CCI, CTS, DRE, ETFC, EGBN, ESSA, FISI, FCBC, HXL, HRC, IPHI, ISSI, KNX,
LRCX,
LOGI, LSI, MLNX, MBVT, MIPS, MUR, NFLX, NE, NFBK, OI, PMTC, QTM, RJF,
RLI,
ROCM, SNDK, SWK, STSA, SUSQ, SYMC, SYMM, TER, TCBI, URI, VAR, WASH, ZHNE Thursday, Jan 26,
2012
Before: FLWS, MMM, ARG, ALK, ABC, AME, ART, T, AN, AVT, BLL, BAX, BGG,
BMY, BC,
CCMP, CP, CRR, CRS, CSH, CAT, CELG, CL, CLP, COLB, CNX, COV, CY, DLX,
ETN, EGN,
EFSC, EQT, FNFG, HSC, ISCA, IVZ, ESI, JEC, JNS, JBLU, KMT, LMT, LYTS,
MKC, MJN,
MEG, MWW, NPBC, NMM, NEI, NOK, NUE, NUTR, ORI, ORRF, POT, PCP, PSSI,
QSII,
RDCM, RTN, RGS, SASR, SHW, STEL, TDY, LG, TWC, UTEK, UMPQ, UA, UBSI,
UCBI, VLY,
WCC, ZMH
During: FRME, MUSA
After: ABAX, ARBA, BNCL, BPFH, BVSN, CLS, CPHD, CB, CRUS, CRBC, COBZ,
CPSI,
CPWR, DWCH, DLA, DV, DLLR, DCOM, EMN, ESIO, ELX, FII, FFIN, FSL, GBCI,
GDOT,
GSIT, HBHC, HEOP, HUBG, INFA, ISBC, JBHT, JNPR, KTEC, KLAC, LSCC, MATW,
MXIM,
MBFI, MBTF, MCRL, MCRS, MMI, NBBC, NST, PFBC, QLGC, RMD, RVBD, RHI,
RRR, RYL,
SCSC, SBCF, CODE, SBUX, STRT, SXL, SIVB, SYNA, TNAV, WRLS, TSRA, TKR,
VRSN,
VPRT, WBCO, WERN, WAIR, WMS, WSFS Friday, Jan 27, 2012
Before: AOS, AHGP, ARLP, MO, ACO, ABFS, CVX, CMCO, DHI, D, EBTX, GHM,
HON,
IDXX, IMGN, LM, LPL, NWL, NEE, NS, NSH, PG, PFS, SCBT, TROW, USAP,
WTBA, WCBO
During: –
After: SCCO Note:
All economic numbers
and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com.
Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this
column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always
double
check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! (?) = Not
yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled. DISCLAIMER There
is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities. Past
results are not indicative of future returns. Prior
to
the execution of any securities trade, you should always consult with
your broker or other financial advisor. The
positions
given and described by the Bastiat Group, Inc. and its employees and
affiliates are for educational purposes only. The Bastiat
Group, Inc. and its members, employees, agents, consultants, analysts,
representatives, content and/or service providers, affiliates,
subsidiaries, successors and assigns (hereinafter collectively,
“The
Bastiat Indemnities”) assume no responsibility or liability for your
trading and investment results. Go to http://www.tonihansen.com/disclaimer.html
for a complete disclaimer. (c)
1998-2011 All information presented is property of
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