Financial stock sector ETF (XLF) Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/11/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/11/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Utilities stock sector ETF (XLU) absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/11/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,943.89, down 0.35%) absolute price opened lower and worked downward until reversing and recovering part way back in the final 97 minutes into the close. SPX closed very near both the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, forming an indecisive Doji Candlestick on the chart.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 hit 99% on 6/6/14. That level signals an extremely overbought condition.
NYSE total volume fell less than 1% to a level 19% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and slowing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Currently, as of 6/11/14, short-term momentum has turned down, following 2-days of slowing. Previously, momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite higher highs in the S&P 500 itself. Therefore, both have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. The trends for the S&P 500 have been persistently bullish, but divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/9/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness. EFA/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 6/10/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained in a weak position below the 200-day SMA since 12/17/12. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose new high on 6/9/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/3/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 6/10/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 4 months on 6/2/14, reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/28/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/11/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). In recent years, SMA crossovers did not produce significant trend change, however. GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Absolute price of GDX remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 11 months on 5/30/14, reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/5/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA, however.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/6/14, turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.56% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
5.02% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
4.23% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
4.62% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
1.10% , CBS , CBS CORP.
1.06% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
0.64% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.97% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
1.80% , CI , CIGNA
0.64% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.68% , X , US STEEL CORP
0.38% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.77% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
0.46% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.88% , HAR , Harman International
0.88% , AET , AETNA
1.50% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.85% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.52% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.71% , EMC , EMC
0.59% , RAI , Reynolds American
1.31% , NVDA , NVIDIA
1.06% , HES , AMERADA HESS
0.55% , MRK , MERCK & CO
2.16% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.72% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
0.24% , PCG , PG&E
0.84% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
1.36% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.29% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
0.48% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
0.05% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
1.61% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.79% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.31% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-0.86% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.30% , BA , BOEING
-1.85% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-2.65% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-2.09% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-1.29% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.53% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-2.36% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.48% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.05% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.63% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-0.96% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-2.07% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-0.47% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.21% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-0.48% , VTV , Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.28% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-0.27% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.25% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-1.04% , AEE , AMEREN
-0.67% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-0.91% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.92% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
-0.38% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-1.68% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-0.73% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.75% , DVY , Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.26% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-2.80% , PPL , PPL
-0.86% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-0.27% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.52% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.92% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.64% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.60% , Russia MV, RSX
0.57% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.52% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.46% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.40% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.39% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.39% , Canada Index, EWC
0.38% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.38% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.38% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.26% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.18% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.14% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.13% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.12% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.11% , Energy Global, IXC
0.10% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.10% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.09% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.08% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.07% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.02% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.01% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.04% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.07% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.08% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.10% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.10% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.10% , Dividend International, PID
-0.10% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.12% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.13% , Networking, IGN
-0.16% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.18% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.21% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.21% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.22% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.23% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.23% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.23% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.23% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.23% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.27% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.27% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.27% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.27% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.28% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.29% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.30% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.30% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.30% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.31% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.31% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.32% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.32% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.33% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.33% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.33% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.33% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.33% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.34% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.34% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.34% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.34% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.35% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.35% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.37% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.37% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.38% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.41% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.41% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.41% , Global 100, IOO
-0.41% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.41% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.42% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.45% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.46% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.47% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.47% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.47% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.48% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.48% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.49% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.50% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.50% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.52% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.53% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.56% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.56% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.56% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.56% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.57% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.58% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.59% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.60% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.60% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.60% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.61% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.62% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.64% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.65% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.65% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.66% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.66% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.67% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.67% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.71% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.71% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.73% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.74% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.75% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.76% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.77% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.82% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.86% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.86% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.86% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.86% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.87% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.91% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.93% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.96% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.05% , France Index, EWQ
-1.09% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.17% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.26% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.29% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.31% , India PS, PIN
-1.34% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.64% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.67% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-5.20% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1886.95, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1807.03, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
