Financial stock sector ETF (XLF) absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/5/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). XLF also declined 2 positions in my sector long-term Relative Strength rankings.
Materials stock sector ETF (XLB) Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/5/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Technology stock sector ETF (XLK) Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/5/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,884.66, up 0.19%) absolute price opened lower but reversed to the upside after 11 minutes. SPX continued rising most of the day to a firm close. SPX closed above both the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. The Bullish Engulfing Candlesticks suggested short-term resilience.
NYSE total volume fell 14% to a level 18% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 166 from 241 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to price. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears to be deteriorating technically. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 4/30/14 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at a new closing price high to confirm the new high by the Dow-Jones Transportation Average on 4/23/14. Such a confirmation suggests that significant stock market sectors are in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing. Absolute price of QQQ crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 4/28/14, thereby confirming a significant downtrend. MDY/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The declining 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing. Absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 4/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell to its lowest level in 2 years on 4/10/14. UUP turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 4/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. From a longer-term perspective, UUP price has whipsawed around its 50-day SMA for many months but still has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. For nearly 3 years, since 5/4/11, UUP has been fluctuating between 23.14 and 20.84. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose to its highest level in 18 months on 4/29/14 and remains systematically bullish. DBA price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/30/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price has stabilized since June and could be forming a base. Currently, the price trend remains systematically neutral. Support: 122.84, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since GDX absolute price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/1/14. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.16, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/2/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.39% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
3.56% , PKI , PERKINELMER
2.71% , SYY , SYSCO
0.55% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
1.50% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
1.48% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
1.86% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
0.15% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.51% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
2.36% , MON , MONSANTO
1.13% , HUM , HUMANA
2.26% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.15% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.87% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
0.73% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
1.12% , AET , AETNA
1.36% , WAT , WATERS
0.12% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
0.98% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
2.53% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
0.28% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
0.25% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
0.10% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.58% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
0.36% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.55% , BA , BOEING
0.08% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.16% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.35% , CI , CIGNA
0.24% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.71% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
0.77% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.26% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.45% , TGT , TARGET
-0.14% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-2.76% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-1.88% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-2.53% , CLX , CLOROX
-1.12% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-2.45% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-2.16% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-0.56% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.97% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.39% , X , US STEEL CORP
-2.51% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-2.57% , PFE , PFIZER
-1.05% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-1.68% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.23% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.23% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-0.82% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-1.52% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.48% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.25% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.07% , SDY , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.29% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.35% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.16% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.31% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-0.35% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-0.06% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.70% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-0.22% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-0.15% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.26% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-0.16% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.88% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.93% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.89% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.80% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.77% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.66% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.62% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.55% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.53% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.52% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.47% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.45% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.45% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.43% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.42% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.40% , Russia MV, RSX
0.40% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.37% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.37% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.36% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.35% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.35% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.34% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.30% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.27% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.26% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.22% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.22% , Energy Global, IXC
0.21% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.21% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.20% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.19% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.19% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.18% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.17% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.17% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.17% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.17% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.16% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.15% , Australia Index, EWA
0.15% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.15% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.15% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.15% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.13% , France Index, EWQ
0.12% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.10% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.09% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.09% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.09% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.09% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.07% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.07% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.05% , Dividend International, PID
0.05% , Spain Index, EWP
0.05% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.04% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.04% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.04% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.03% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.02% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.00% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.00% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.00% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Networking, IGN
-0.02% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.02% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.02% , Global 100, IOO
-0.03% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.03% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.04% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.06% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.06% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.06% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.07% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.07% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.07% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.07% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.08% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.09% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.09% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.12% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.12% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.13% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.13% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.13% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.13% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.13% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.14% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.15% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.16% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.16% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.16% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.17% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.18% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.19% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.20% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.21% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.21% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.21% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.21% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.23% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.23% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.23% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.25% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.26% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.26% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.27% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.28% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.29% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.36% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.38% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.41% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.41% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.42% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.44% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.44% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.45% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.48% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.55% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.56% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.57% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.60% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.66% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.69% , India PS, PIN
-0.69% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.72% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.74% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.86% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.97% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.04% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.22% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.29% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.48% , South Africa Index, EZA
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1890.90, close of 4/2/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1863.69, 50-day SMA
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1778.06, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
