A morning rally gave way to afternoon fatigue as stocks surrendered most of their early gains. Still, the S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,317.72) rose 4.08 points or 0.31% on Wednesday, July 13, 2011. SPX finished modestly above its 50-day SMA on 7/13/11.

Price momentum indicators (such as the popular RSI 14) still show bearish divergence after registering an overbought condition last Thursday, 7/7/11. I take that as a warning of downside risk.

Trading volume on the NYSE fell 4% below the previous day’s pace and was 10% below its trailing 200-day SMA. Rising volume confirms the price direction, while low and falling volume indicate relatively poor demand for stocks and raises doubts about the significance of any rally attempt.

Financial SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 2-year lows, again reconfirming a major, long-term downtrend.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 3 months and is in position to challenge its all-time peak set on 4/5/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish.

Gold rose above previous all-time price highs on 7/13/11, confirming a major long-term uptrend.

Silver rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 7/13/11. Now, upside follow-through is essential in order to confirm a minor uptrend.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price reversed early weakness on 7/13/11to close very near 7-month highs. Technically, Bonds still appear bullish.

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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.33% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
1.29% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.90% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
1.54% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.71% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
4.24% , DYN , DYNEGY
5.77% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
3.22% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.07% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
0.32% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
1.02% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.32% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.79% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
3.31% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
2.80% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
1.80% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
1.21% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
3.83% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
1.97% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
2.51% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.39% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.23% , PIN , India PS, PIN
2.31% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
2.38% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
2.75% , NBR , NABORS
5.65% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.13% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.25% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
0.46% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
1.44% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.40% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.55% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.57% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.52% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-2.62% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-0.61% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-1.35% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-1.08% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-0.83% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-2.12% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-3.11% , ALTR , ALTERA
-1.68% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-2.26% , CTAS , CINTAS
-1.16% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-0.16% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-0.30% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-1.16% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-0.08% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-0.37% , GCI , GANNETT
-0.66% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-0.48% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.38% , SNA , SNAP ON
-0.41% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.52% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.92% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-0.80% , INTU , INTUIT
-0.75% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.83% , DLX , DELUXE
-0.04% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-0.39% , PX , PRAXAIR
-1.14% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-0.48% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
-0.90% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-0.05% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-0.59% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-0.32% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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ranked in order of long-term relative strength
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 7-week lows on 7/12/11 after trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 10/14/10. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell further below 4-month lows on 7/12/11. The Ratio has been trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 11/27/07, so this is a major long-term bearish trend. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has been fluctuating neutral/sideways since peaking on 1/18/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish. Absolute price rose to test its yearly highs on 7/7/11 but failed and turned down.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 3 months on 7/13/11 and is in position to challenge its all-time peak set on 4/5/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been fluctuating neutral/sideways since peaking on 4/5/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above the highs of the previous 4 trading days on 7/13/11. The problem is that just one day before, on 7/12/11, Oil fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days, suggesting a downtrend. Too many reversals make Oil a risky market to trade at this time. Support 93.55, 93.45, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 99.42, 103.39, 104.60, 105.16, 114.83, 115.27, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose above previous all-time price highs on 7/13/11, confirming a major long-term uptrend. Support: 1478.3, 1462.5, 1445.0, 1411.5, 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1577.7.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has bounced moderately in recent weeks after falling below 27-month lows on 6/17/11. The Ratio is still down substantially since its peak on 4/8/11, and the main trend remains bearish. GDX has established a clear bearish divergence relative to GLD, and that normally should be taken as a warning about prospects for GLD, Gold futures, Gold bullion, and Gold coins.

Silver nearest futures contract price rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 7/13/11. Now, upside follow-through is essential in order to confirm a minor uptrend. Support 34.81, 33.38, 32.3, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 38.825, 39.38, 39.47, 49.82, 49.845 and 50.35.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 7/13/11, suggesting a short-term uptrend. The Ratio entered a steep downtrend since the peak on 4/28/11 and fell below the lows of the previous 4 months in 6/27/11, reconfirming a preexisting downtrend for the medium term.

Copper nearest futures contract price consolidated recent price gains. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while Weakness suggests doubts about the future. Support 4.3145, 4.0505, 4.0240, 3.9505, 3.8725, 3.8535, 3.846, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.4565, 4.533, 4.554, 4.6350 , 4.6495, 4.6535, and 4.6575.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price reversed early weakness on 7/13/11to close very near 7-month highs. Technically, Bonds still appear bullish. Support 122.05, 120.20, 119.15, 117.28, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 127.15, 127.19, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 7/12/11, confirming a minor downtrend. JNK/LQD broke down below 9-month lows on 6/16/11, confirming a major downtrend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 7/11/11, and the Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 6/20/11. This downtrend means that fixed-income investors prefer the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 2 trading days on 7/13/11, suggesting a minor price pullback. USD rose above the highs of the previous 16 weeks on 7/12/11, reconfirming a minor rally attempt. Longer term, USD has stabilized since making a low at 73.325 on 5/2/11. That stabilization appears to be base building for a more significant upside reversal. Support 74.505, 73.88, 73.515, 73.325, 72.86, and 70.80. Resistance 77.175, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 44.1% Bulls versus 22.6% Bears as of 7/13/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio rose to 1.95, which suggests moderate bullish complacency when compared to 20-year range of 0.41 to 3.74, a median of 1.56, and a mean of 1.64.

VIX Fear Index collapsed below the lows of the previous 8-weeks, plunging to 15.12 intraday on 7/1/11, in a surprisingly rapid swing to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.

As of the close on June 6, 2011, the Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction (a significant downside correction) for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 10-week lows. Previously, as of June 1, 2011, the Dow Theory gave a warning of a significant downside correction for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 5-week lows.

As of the close on July 1, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above all previous closing price highs but the Dow-Jones Industrial Average failed to confirm. The Dow Industrials currently suggest nothing more than an insignificant Minor Ripple.

On 5/2/11, when the S&P 500 Composite (SPX) was 1,358.59, I warned, “The majority of major stock price indexes opened higher on gaps but reversed to close with losses on the day. This may signal exhaustion of the short-term uptrend. Sentiment indicators have been suggesting that the stock market may be over loved and overbought. And in view of the sharp reversals in the metal commodities, the so-called “inflation trade”, when speculators buy stocks and sell fixed-income instruments based on expectations of rising price levels for goods and services, may be on thin ice.”

Based on the daily SPX, momentum indicators gave bearish divergence warnings in April; that is, they never made it back to their February peaks when the price indexes rose to higher highs.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,317.72) rose 4.08 points or 0.31% on Wednesday, July 13, 2011.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.50, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.77% Silver Trust iS, SLV
5.65% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
2.51% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.38% Italy Index, EWI
2.12% Sweden Index, EWD
2.09% Germany Index, EWG
2.03% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.97% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.91% Japan Index, EWJ
1.89% Australia Index, EWA
1.78% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.70% Spain Index, EWP
1.70% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.69% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.69% South Korea Index, EWY
1.65% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.63% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.61% European VIPERs, VGK
1.57% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.57% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.57% Austria Index, EWO
1.55% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.54% Belgium Index, EWK
1.54% Mexico Index, EWW
1.50% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.49% EAFE Index, EFA
1.49% China 25 iS, FXI
1.45% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.45% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.44% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.40% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.39% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.38% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.37% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.35% Canada Index, EWC
1.35% France Index, EWQ
1.29% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.23% India PS, PIN
1.23% Russia MV, RSX
1.21% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.13% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.13% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.13% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.11% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.10% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.10% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.07% South Africa Index, EZA
1.03% Singapore Index, EWS
1.02% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.00% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.99% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.95% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.93% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.90% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.89% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.87% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.87% Global 100, IOO
0.87% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.87% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.86% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.86% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.83% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.77% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.77% Energy DJ, IYE
0.75% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.75% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.72% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.71% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.69% Dividend International, PID
0.69% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.66% Energy Global, IXC
0.62% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.61% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.60% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.57% Water Resources, PHO
0.55% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.52% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.50% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.49% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.47% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.46% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.44% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.43% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.42% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.41% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.40% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.39% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.38% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.38% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.37% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.37% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.36% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.36% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.36% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.36% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.35% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.34% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.34% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.34% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.33% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.33% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.32% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.32% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.31% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.31% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.30% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.29% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.28% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.26% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.25% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.25% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.25% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.24% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.24% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.23% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.22% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.20% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.19% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.19% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.19% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.18% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.16% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.13% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.13% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.07% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.02% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.02% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.17% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.22% Networking, IGN
-0.27% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.32% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.84% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.93% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.99% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.07% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF