Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 7-month low on 8/19/10 and remains bearish.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 7-week highs on 8/19/10, again confirming a significant upturn
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose to another 19-month high on 8/19/10, again confirming a significant longer-term uptrend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 8/19/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) price fell back to test and hold just above the 1069.49 low of Monday, 8/16/10, and slightly below the 1071.07 Gann 50.0% retracement of June-Aug. 2010 range. This could be a support zone, but technical indicators appear mixed. Since April 2010, the higher volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale dominates buying demand for stocks. Currently, investor confidence appears to be waning. The stock market appears to be correcting and consolidating gains in a broad trading range since the SPX 1219.80 high of 4/26/2010. Further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.20% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
6.01% , NVDA , NVIDIA
8.86% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
4.04% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
1.49% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
1.23% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
4.88% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
1.20% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
3.19% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
3.51% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
1.69% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
3.50% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
1.40% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.75% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.05% , ACV , Alberto-Culver Co.
1.56% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
2.82% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
3.00% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.93% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.77% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.73% , EBAY , EBAY
0.55% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
1.49% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
3.43% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.68% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
0.42% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
0.16% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
0.31% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
0.35% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.16% , HAR , Harman International
0.13% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
0.08% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
0.46% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.01% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.21% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-2.82% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-9.24% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.83% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-1.65% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-2.32% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-2.33% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.19% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.69% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.93% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-2.62% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.34% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-3.16% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.48% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-3.52% , INTC , INTEL
-2.21% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-2.48% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.57% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-3.61% , SPLS , STAPLES
-1.74% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-1.64% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.32% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-6.60% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-6.69% , PWER , POWER ONE
-4.92% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-1.66% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.61% , ELG , Growth Large Cap, ELG
-4.52% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-1.83% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-3.65% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-1.79% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-2.55% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-2.15% , PTE , Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
-3.18% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.49% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-3.21% , MOT , MOTOROLA
-2.77% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-4.54% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-3.04% , USB , US BANCORP
-3.67% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 6-week highs and above 50- and 200-day SMAs on 8/18/10, thereby turning bullish. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY also is bullish. Support 29.90, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09. Absolute price of XLP crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/22/10
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose to a new 2-month high on 8/5/10, after turning bullish on 7/22/10, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 8/9/10. XLI remains slightly above both SMAs (50 and 200). Support 27.74, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 8-month high on 8/16/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU turned bullish on 8/18/10 with a SMA bullish crossover (50>200). Support 30.17, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned bullish on 8/11/10 when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of XLP remains neutral, above both 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 7-month high on 8/18/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 8/2/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.43 and 27.67. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to a new 2-month low on 8/13/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 51.31, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 7-month low on 8/19/10 and remains bearish. The ratio turned back to bearish on 8/3/10 as it crossed below both the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price turned bearish again on 8/11/10 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Support 13.34 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 8/19/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM rose to a new 3-month high on 8/2/02. Price remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA, but appears to be heading toward a bullish crossover in days ahead.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) and absolute price both remain neutral, with the 50-day SMAs below the 200-day SMAs.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 6/15/10. Longer term, RSP /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell to 6-monthlows on 8/13/10, confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. This trend has been weakening since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 5/28/10. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 6-week lows on 8/18/10, again confirming a downside correction. Oil remains stuck in a correction/consolidation phase that started after the peak on 5/3/10. Support 74.25, 71.09, 70.93, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 7-week highs on 8/19/10, again confirming a significant upturn. Support 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8, 1263.7, and 1266.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 4-day highs on 8/17/10, thereby showing renewed upside momentum. Copper had consolidated gains since peaking at 3.4105 on 8/4/10. Copper remains in a significant uptrend for the intermediate-term. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose to another 19-month high on 8/19/10, again confirming a significant longer-term uptrend. Support 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has turned bearish for the intermediate term, heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 15-month lows on 8/16/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 4-day lows on 8/18/10, reinforcing doubts about the short-term trend. The larger time frames appear uncertain. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 36.7% Bulls versus 31.1% Bears as of 8/18/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1. 18, down from 1.52 the previous week. This ratio hit a low at 0.94 on 7/14/10, which was the lowest since 0.82 on 4/1/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Minor Ripple to the downside within a Bullish Secondary Wave within a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. Both Averages broke down below 3-week lows on 8/13/10. This suggests nothing more than an insignificant short-term Minor Ripple to the downside. On 8/9/10, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 3 months, again confirming a Secondary Wave to the upside. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) price fell back to test and hold just above the 1069.49 low of Monday, 8/16/10 and slightly below the 1071.07 Gann 50.0% retracement of June-Aug. 2010 range. This could be a support zone, but technical indicators appear mixed. Since April 2010, the higher volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale dominates buying demand for stocks. Currently, investor confidence appears to be waning. The stock market appears to be correcting and consolidating gains in a broad trading range since the SPX 1219.80 high of 4/26/2010. Further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1071.07, Gann 50.0% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1069.49, low of 8/16/10
1060.21, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2010 range
1056.87, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.56% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.83% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.46% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.45% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.37% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.35% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.32% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.16% South Korea Index, EWY
0.14% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.13% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.11% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.00% India PS, PIN
-0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.21% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.21% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.24% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.31% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.39% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.40% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.41% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.41% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.41% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.55% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.55% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.61% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.66% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.71% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.72% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.77% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.87% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.92% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.95% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.02% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.13% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.18% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.20% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.25% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.27% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.28% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.29% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.30% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.31% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.34% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.34% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.37% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.39% Canada Index, EWC
-1.42% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.43% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.43% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.44% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.45% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-1.48% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.50% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.51% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-1.52% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.53% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.54% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.55% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.60% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.61% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.62% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.62% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.63% Energy Global, IXC
-1.64% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.64% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.65% Networking, IGN
-1.66% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.67% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.68% Global 100, IOO
-1.68% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.68% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.69% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.69% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.69% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.71% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.71% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.71% Dividend International, PID
-1.72% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.74% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.74% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.74% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.75% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.77% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.78% Russia MV, RSX
-1.79% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.82% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.82% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.83% Austria Index, EWO
-1.84% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.85% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.87% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.93% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.93% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.95% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.96% Australia Index, EWA
-2.03% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-2.09% Germany Index, EWG
-2.10% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.11% Spain Index, EWP
-2.13% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.14% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.19% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.19% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.21% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.24% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.25% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.26% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.27% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.27% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.28% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.29% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.29% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.30% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.30% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.31% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.32% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.33% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.42% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.44% France Index, EWQ
-2.48% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.53% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.54% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.56% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.57% Water Resources, PHO
-2.59% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.61% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.64% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.74% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.80% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.83% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.84% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.84% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-3.16% Italy Index, EWI
-3.34% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.40% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
