S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,315.44) fell a steep 2.05% and broke the lows of the previous 6 trading days. This suggests a correction or shakeout for the short term. Last Friday, 2/18/11, SPX rose above the highs of the previous 2-years, which reconfirmed its preexisting Bullish Primary Tide Trend for the long term.
Energy SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 15-month highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows, again reconfirming its bearish trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA, turning neutral again.
Crude Oil rose above 2-year highs, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Gold rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks, reconfirming a bullish trend for the short term.
Silver rose above previous 30-year highs, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 4-year highs, confirming a bullish major trend.
Copper fell below 3-week lows, confirming a downside price pullback for the short term.
U.S. Treasury Bond futures price rose above 3-week highs, suggesting a “flight to safety” bounce for the short term.
The U.S. dollar rose slightly, suggesting a “flight to safety” bounce for the short term.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.57% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
2.20% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
5.75% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
7.48% , VFC , VF
5.86% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
4.09% , HUM , HUMANA
4.06% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.85% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.93% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.98% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
2.17% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.97% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.15% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.81% , KFT , Kraft Foods Inc.
1.50% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.48% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.54% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
1.62% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
1.83% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
1.11% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
0.68% , AYE , ALLEGHENY ENERGY
0.28% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.43% , KR , KROGER
2.61% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
0.28% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
0.34% , K , KELLOGG
0.11% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.36% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.39% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.37% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
0.82% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.19% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.46% , EXC , EXELON CORP
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.71% , UIS , UNISYS
-5.60% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.14% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-3.12% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-3.84% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-4.53% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-7.90% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-3.82% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-3.14% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-3.24% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-3.27% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-4.19% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-10.56% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-2.67% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-7.46% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-3.05% , IGV , Software, IGV
-4.33% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-4.22% , AEE , AMEREN
-3.11% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-4.48% , C , CITIGROUP
-4.37% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-3.94% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.94% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-8.30% , MBI , MBIA
-6.67% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-2.55% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-3.04% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-4.60% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-3.72% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-4.17% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-5.49% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-2.76% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-2.22% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 15-month highs on 2/22/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 2/18/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 78.10, 83.27, and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 2/17/11 and remains bullish. Absolute closed above 2-year closing price highs on 2/18/11 and remains bullish. Support 35.38, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 39.02 and 39.97.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 2/18/11. The ratio turned bullish by rising above its 50-day SMA on 2/15/11. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 2/18/11, which was a bullish confirmation for the longer-term trend. Support 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 40.13 and 40.70.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/18/11 thereby turning neutral again. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 2/17/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.24, 36.99, 36.54, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 41.06.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) crossed below its 200-day SMA on 2/22/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting neutral trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK closed above 3-year closing price highs on 2/17/11and remains bullish. Support 25.65, 25.53, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) crossed below its 200-day SMA on 2/22/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting neutral trend. Absolute price of XLF rose above above 2-year highs on 2/18/11 and remains bullish. Support 16.19, 16.03, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 2/14/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 2/4/11, thereby turning bullish for the short term. Support 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.72 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 2/11/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 13-month highs on 2/18/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 4-year lows on 2/18/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 31.23, 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.21 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows on 2/22/11,again reconfirming its bearish trend. The ratio turned bearish from neutral on 2/4/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned bearish from neutral on 2/10/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 50-day SMA on 1/20/11, turning neutral for the short term. Long term, the ratio rose above 10-year highs on 1/18/11, confirming a bullish Primary Tide uptrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) turned bearish from neutral on 2/10/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA. Long term, the ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps had been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, from 3/29/2000 to 12/3/10.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/22/11, turning neutral again. Long term, the ratio rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above all-time highs on 2/17/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. The ratio turned bullish from neutral on 2/7/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 2/22/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 98.65 and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 2/22/11, reconfirming a bullish trend for the short term. Long term, Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 12/7/10, confirming a bullish major trend. Support 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1431.1.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 6-week highs on 2/17/11 and tuned bullish, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Silver nearest futures contract price rose above previous 30-year highs on 2/22/11, again reconfirming a bullish major trend. Support 30.265, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: none.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 4-year highs on 2/22/11, confirming a bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 3-week lows on 2/22/11, confirming a downside price pullback for the short term. Copper rose above all-time highs on 2/14/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.208, 4.204, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.6495.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 3-week highs on 2/22/11, suggesting a “flight to safety” bounce for the short term. But the Bond fell further below 9-month lows on 2/9/11, confirming a bearish long-term major trend. Support, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 122.07, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains bullish, above 50- and 200-day SMAs. JNK absolute price also remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected TIPs at a relatively more subdued pace since 8/24/10, compared to the more sever price drop of the 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose slightly on 2/22/11, suggesting a “flight to safety” bounce for the short term. But USD fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/11, and that breakdown reconfirmed an intermediate-term downtrend. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a major downtrend. Support 77.00, 76.175, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 52.2% Bulls versus 19.6% Bears as of 2/16/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.66, nearly 1.5 standard deviations above the 20-year mean. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.55, and the mean is 1.63.
VIX Fear Index jumped above the highs of the previus 2 months to 20.80 on 2/22/11, reflecting a shift toward fear or bearish sentiment among options players. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 2/17/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,315.44) fell a steep 2.05% and broke the lows of the previous 6 trading days. This suggests a correction or shakeout for the short term. Last Friday, 2/18/11, SPX rose above the highs of the previous 2-years, which reconfirmed its preexisting Bullish Primary Tide Trend for the long term.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1344.07, high of 2/18/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1311.74, low of 2/10/11
1294.83, low of 2/3/11
1275.10, low of 1/28/11
1271.26, low of 1/20/11
1261.70, low of 1/7/11
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.86% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.50% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.49% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.97% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.79% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.65% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.36% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.28% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.19% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.11% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.14% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.41% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.44% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.47% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.61% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.63% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.70% Russia MV, RSX
-0.70% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.76% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.78% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.81% India PS, PIN
-0.82% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.84% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.87% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.90% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.91% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.96% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.97% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.99% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.02% Energy Global, IXC
-1.05% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.13% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.14% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.32% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.37% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.38% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.38% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.40% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.52% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.54% Canada Index, EWC
-1.62% Dividend International, PID
-1.67% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.68% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.77% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.79% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.90% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.99% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-2.01% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.04% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-2.04% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-2.09% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-2.11% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.11% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-2.12% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-2.14% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.15% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-2.21% Germany Index, EWG
-2.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.22% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.24% Global 100, IOO
-2.24% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.26% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-2.29% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.33% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.33% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.34% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.36% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.37% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.39% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.40% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-2.41% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.43% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.44% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.45% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.45% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.48% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-2.49% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.50% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.53% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.57% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.60% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.60% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.63% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.65% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.73% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.73% Austria Index, EWO
-2.74% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.75% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.75% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.76% Japan Index, EWJ
-2.76% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.79% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.81% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.81% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.83% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.83% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.84% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.86% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.86% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.88% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.89% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-2.91% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.96% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.97% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-3.00% European VIPERs, VGK
-3.02% Brazil Index, EWZ
-3.04% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-3.05% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-3.06% Financial SPDR, XLF
-3.09% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.11% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-3.13% Mexico Index, EWW
-3.19% Networking, IGN
-3.20% Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.21% Materials SPDR, XLB
-3.24% Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.24% France Index, EWQ
-3.34% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-3.36% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.38% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-3.47% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-3.48% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.51% Water Resources, PHO
-3.52% Singapore Index, EWS
-3.58% China 25 iS, FXI
-3.62% Australia Index, EWA
-3.63% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.72% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.90% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-3.92% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-3.94% South Korea Index, EWY
-3.98% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-4.16% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.19% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-4.50% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-4.53% Spain Index, EWP
-4.54% Taiwan Index, EWT
-5.60% Italy Index, EWI
