The S&P Mid Cap 400 ETF (MDY) absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 4/9/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,872.18, up 1.09%) absolute price opened higher on an upside gap, worked slightly higher by 2:00 pm, then suddenly spiked straight up on release of the FOMC minutes, which traders apparently took to mean that interest rates may be lower for longer than they previously expected. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing price levels of the previous 3 trading days.
NYSE total volume fell 11% to a level equal to its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 168 from 65 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to price. Both have turned slightly upward again, but from lower lows after making lower highs. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Although the S&P 500 closed at a new high on 4/2/14, neither the Nasdaq Composite Index nor the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new high, suggesting non-confirmation.
The outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Non-confirmations, momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, with the Transportation Average setting higher highs and the Industrial Average setting lower closing price highs. Such divergence suggests that significant sectors are not in gear and pulling together in the same direction. If both Averages close below their lows of 2/3/14 without the Industrial Average confirming the 2014 higher high of the Transportation Average, that could be a significant sell signal.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price of QQQ crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA is moving down toward but remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 4/9/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 4/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. From a longer-term perspective, UUP price has whipsawed around its 50-day SMA for many months but still has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. For nearly 3 years, since 5/4/11, UUP has been fluctuating between 23.14 and 20.84. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The price 50-day SMA is rising and nearing the 200-day SMA, and a bullish crossover appears likely so long as price stays firm or rises in days ahead. Support 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.74, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price, trading in a range between 114.46 and 133.69 since 12/31/13, remains systematically neutral. Support: 123.11, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) could be trying to form a base. GDX/GLD has been systematically neutral most of the time since GDX price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that downtrend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price remains systematically bearish. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.49% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
1.59% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
4.47% , MBI , MBIA
1.99% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
1.00% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
3.63% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
4.62% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
3.75% , AA , ALCOA
4.88% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
3.93% , AN , AUTONATION
1.24% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
7.25% , FB.O , Facebook, Inc., FB
3.74% , MRK , MERCK & CO
3.20% , RTN , RAYTHEON
7.04% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
0.44% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
1.28% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
1.66% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
1.67% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
0.69% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
2.70% , K , KELLOGG
0.85% , VTV , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.30% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
2.97% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.83% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
2.44% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
6.01% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
0.96% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
1.64% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.06% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.04% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.87% , GPS , GAP
-2.76% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-3.47% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-2.63% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-1.32% , VFC , VF
-1.68% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-1.80% , APA , APACHE
-0.56% , AES , AES
-1.61% , F , FORD MOTOR
-0.35% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.98% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-0.62% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.22% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.41% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-0.28% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.64% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-2.71% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.58% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-1.24% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.29% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-0.15% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.33% , TJX , TJX
-0.41% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-0.53% , CLX , CLOROX
-0.25% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.21% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.41% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-0.73% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-0.50% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-0.20% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.15% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.03% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.41% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.84% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.78% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.27% , Austria Index, EWO
2.19% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.14% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
2.07% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
2.04% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.93% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.76% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.73% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.72% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.72% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.71% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.67% , Australia Index, EWA
1.64% , India PS, PIN
1.62% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.61% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.59% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.52% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.47% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.47% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.46% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.45% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.45% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.44% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.43% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.41% , Networking, IGN
1.40% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.40% , Water Resources, PHO
1.40% , France Index, EWQ
1.39% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.36% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.36% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.35% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.34% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.34% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.33% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.33% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.33% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.30% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.28% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.28% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.27% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.25% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.24% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.22% , Germany Index, EWG
1.21% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.20% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.20% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.18% , Italy Index, EWI
1.16% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.16% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.14% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.14% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.12% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.12% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.10% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.09% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.09% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.08% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.08% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.08% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.08% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.08% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.07% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.06% , Spain Index, EWP
1.05% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.05% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.04% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.03% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.02% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.97% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.97% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.96% , Global 100, IOO
0.96% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.90% , Canada Index, EWC
0.90% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.90% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.88% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.87% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.87% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.87% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.85% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.84% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.82% , Dividend International, PID
0.82% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.80% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.80% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.78% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.77% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.77% , Russia MV, RSX
0.76% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.75% , Energy Global, IXC
0.73% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.72% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.72% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.69% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.69% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.67% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.59% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.59% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.57% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.53% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.47% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.46% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.45% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.45% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.44% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.42% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.38% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.37% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.34% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.34% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.30% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.27% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.18% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.18% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.16% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.15% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.09% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.07% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.07% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.01% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.03% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.07% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.15% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.20% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.21% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.25% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.28% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.30% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.35% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.49% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.62% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.08% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.24% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.41% , Indonesia MV, IDX
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1,897.28, high of 4/4/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1842.16, 50-day SMA
1837.49, low of 4/8/2014
1834.44, low of 3/3/2014
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1759.14, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
