Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 10/3/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA.

Energy stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/3/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,450.99) rose 5.24 points or 0.36% on Wednesday.

SPX has now retraced a normal fraction of its losses since the top on 9/14/12. RSI(14) based on SPX, now in the neutral zone at 58.68, still appears be working off its recent extreme overbought condition. RSI(14) closed at 74.74 on 9/14/12, which was nearly 2 standard deviations above its 20-year average.

On-Balance Volume for the SPX increased modestly after falling to its lowest level in 7 weeks on 9/28/12. OBV remains far below its highs for the year, 2012, thereby demonstrating relative weakness and bearish divergence.

NYSE volume rose 8% to a level 5% below its 200-day SMA on Wednesday. Average volume has been trending down for more than 6 years, since 6/30/2006, and fell further in September, 2012, reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks. NYSE Volume 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA both fell to their lowest levels in 13 years on Tuesday 9/11/12, and both are still trending downward.

The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Fed and ECB plans to buy bonds in unlimited quantities (with fiat currencies printed out of thin air and backed by nothing but a theory and a hope) do not guarantee that stock prices will continue to rise, especially now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.

*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose above its closing price highs of the previous 4-years on 9/20/12, but on 9/28/12 the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed down below its lows of the previous 16-weeks, the lowest since 6/5/28/12, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/28/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again, but only by a small margin. QQQ/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 8/5/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. BKF/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. EEM/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 10/3/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. EFA/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 33-months on 9/24/12. OEF/SPY turned systematically bullish again on 9/17/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. OEF/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. IWM/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/24/12, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/20/12.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. MDY/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been below its 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1428.98, low of 9/10/2012
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1417.88, 50-day SMA
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1362.50, 200-day SMA
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/5/12, turning systematically neutral. TLT whipsawed back above its 200-day SMA on 9/19/12. TLT”s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 120.67, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, turning systematically bullish again. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.23, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.99, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below its 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. TIP/IEF whipsawed back above its 200-day SMA on 9/27/12. The TIP/IEF 50-day SMA has remained consistently below its 200-day SMA every day since 6/27/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) 50-day SMA fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/2/12, thereby turning systematically bearish. UUP fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 9/14/12. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. UUP’s Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.93, 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral suddenly on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains above its 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price suddenly and sharply fell below its 50-day SMA. USO fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowed since 8/3/12. Support 32.98, 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically bullish on 9/20/12, when its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA. GLD price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 10/1/12, rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12, and rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12. Support: 168.34, 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread is beginning to narrow.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 10/1/12. SLV price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. The price 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11, but the 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, and a bullish crossover appears probable in a day or two. Support 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. SLV/GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 8/22/12, however, and a bullish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead if the SLV/GLD ratio remains strong.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/7/12. JJC remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has begun to narrow over the past few weeks, however. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.84% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
4.04% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.63% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
4.66% , BBY , BEST BUY
3.88% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
1.49% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
6.92% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
1.14% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
6.18% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
0.38% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.29% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
6.04% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
1.88% , HUM , HUMANA
1.33% , MTB , M&T BANK
1.73% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
0.84% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.71% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.32% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
2.27% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.90% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
1.55% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
2.62% , WMB , WILLIAMS
1.81% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
0.22% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
2.31% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
1.43% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.21% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
1.16% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
1.51% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
1.06% , GLW , CORNING
1.69% , GPS , GAP
1.69% , YHOO , YAHOO
2.41% , C , CITIGROUP

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-12.96% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-2.84% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-4.14% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.13% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-4.02% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-4.75% , DELL , DELL
-2.15% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-5.30% , PWER , POWER ONE
-3.57% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-1.00% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-3.33% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-4.21% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-2.58% , MON , MONSANTO
-0.58% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-0.51% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-1.55% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-4.17% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-1.79% , ALTR , ALTERA
-2.15% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.49% , WAG , WALGREEN
-2.35% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
-1.54% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-1.58% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.72% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.98% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-3.11% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-1.27% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.71% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-4.33% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-1.71% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-1.28% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-1.47% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-0.87% , SVU , SUPERVALU
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.22% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.23% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.21% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.89% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.87% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.84% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.79% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.72% Water Resources, PHO
0.70% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.64% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.58% India PS, PIN
0.54% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.54% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.52% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.52% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.51% Austria Index, EWO
0.50% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.49% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.43% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.41% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.41% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.41% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.40% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.39% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.38% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.37% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.37% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.37% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.36% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.35% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.35% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.34% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.32% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.32% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.30% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.29% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.29% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.28% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.28% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.26% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.25% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.23% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.22% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.22% South Korea Index, EWY
0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.21% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.20% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.18% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.18% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.15% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.15% Networking, IGN
0.14% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.13% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.11% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.11% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.10% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.08% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.07% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.07% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.03% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.03% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.03% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.02% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Germany Index, EWG
0.00% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.00% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.02% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.03% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.04% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.04% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.06% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.08% Italy Index, EWI
-0.11% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.11% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.12% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.16% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.19% Global 100, IOO
-0.22% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.23% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.23% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.25% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.27% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.29% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.31% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.31% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.31% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.31% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.32% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.33% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.33% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.37% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.37% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.39% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.39% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.40% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.41% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.43% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.44% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.44% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.44% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.46% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.46% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.47% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.48% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.49% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.50% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.52% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.52% Dividend International, PID
-0.52% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.54% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.58% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.61% France Index, EWQ
-0.67% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.67% Spain Index, EWP
-0.67% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.70% Canada Index, EWC
-0.75% Australia Index, EWA
-0.81% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.82% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.98% Energy Global, IXC
-1.04% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.09% Russia MV, RSX
-1.21% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.23% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.23% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.28% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.31% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.31% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.58% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.58% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.72% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.26% South Africa Index, EZA
-4.02% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-4.14% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO