By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD will close the week, and the quarter at 1.5617. Consumer confidence remains weak, as the GfK indicator is unchanged at -29. The BoE has also released its financial stability report, with Governor King urging the UK banking sector to build capital buffers given the weak economic outlook.
Movement over the next week will be further driven by domestic factors given the release of PMI’s as well as the BoE’s policy announcement. Expectations of further easing are widespread, as 19 out of 20 economists surveyed expect an increase in asset purchases. BoE Governor King had voted for a ?50bn increase at the last meeting, which is now the median estimate.
The plans released by the EU Finance Ministers, were viewed positively by the markets and weakened the greenback as the euro soared. Also investors’ appetite for risk is increasing also reducing the strength of the USD.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 29, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
JPY |
Unemployment Rate |
4.4% |
4.6% |
4.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.6% |
-0.7% |
-0.8% |
|
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-3.1% |
-2.8% |
-0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
0.7% |
|
|
CHF |
KOF Leading Indicators |
1.16 |
0.85 |
0.80 |
|
|
NOK |
Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.70% |
0.50% |
-0.20% |
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
||
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.9 |
52.5 |
52.7 |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
73.2 |
74.1 |
74.1 |
Upcoming Economic Events for Monday July 2, 2012
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
JPY |
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index |
-4 |
-4 |
||
|
CHF |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
4.5% |
0.1% |
||
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
45.0 |
45.4 |
||
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.1% |
11.0% |
||
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
52.5 |
53.5 |
Government Bond Auctions
Jul 02 09:10 Norway
Jul 03 08:30 Holland
Jul 03 09:15 Austria
Jul 03 09:30 Belgium
Jul 03 09:30 UK
Jul 03 14:30 UK
Jul 04 09:30 UK
Jul 05 08:30 Spain
Jul 05 08:50 France
Jul 05 15:00 US
Click here for further GBP/USD Forecast.
Originally posted here
